Predictions are dangerous, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Dino Rossi will win the governor's race.
Here are some interesting pieces of information:
Two counties have reported additional absentee vote counts so far today (all percentages are of the two party vote):
In sparsely populated Garfield County in the east, today's votes are Gregoire 21, Rossi 59, or 73.8% for Rossi; This is a significant gain over the 65.9% for the previously counted ballots for Garfield. Similarly, in the more populous Whatcom County in the west, today's votes are Gregoire 6,321 to Rossi's 6,550, or 50.9% for Rossi. That is also a huge swing over the 48.5% that Rossi had in the previously counted ballots in Whatcom. I calculated on Friday that if the uncounted ballots in the rest of the state swing to Rossi even at one quarter of the rate of today's Whatcom swing, he wins.
The other clue is the navel gazing coming from the Gregoire camp, here and here. It's as if they've done more sophisticated number crunching than I have, which I have no doubt they've done, and they've all but conceded.
I could yet be wrong and I'll follow closely how the rest of the uncounted ballots come in. But it's looking good.
UPDATE (4pm) Bad news: Gregoire increased her lead in King County today. Rossi can still make it if the rest of the state swings like Whatcom, but it's not looking as good as it did earlier this afternoon.
UPDATE (5pm) So far today, Rossi has added to his margins in Garfield, Whatcom and Cowlitz, is flat in Skagit and his margin has slightly shrunk in Adams, Ferry and Whitman. The margin in today's reports is 51.9% in the non-King counties (vs. 51.4% in earlier reports from these same counties). Benton, Chelan, Clark, Pierce and Spokane are all due to report within the hour.
UPDATE (5:15pm) Chelan and Spokane just reported, with wider margins for Rossi in both counties. As of now, Rossi's margin for the day is 55.1% vs. 53.1% for the earlier reports from the non-King counties that reported today. If that increase holds for all of the remaining uncounted non-King ballots, it would be enough to overcome today's bad news from King County.
UPDATE (6:20pm) Final word for the day: I still think that Rossi will probably win, but I'm a bit less confident than I was when I originally posted this entry. Given the Sec. of State's revised report on uncounted ballots, and simply extrapolating each county's current percentages on the uncounted ballots, Rossi wins by 600 votes. On the other hand, if the uncounted ballots in King County break like today's (much more favorable to Gregoire than the previously counted ballots), and the uncounted non-King ballots break like today's (somewhat more favorable to Rossi than the previously counted ballots) then Gregoire wins by 400 votes.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 08, 2004 12:41 PM | Email ThisLet me make a prediction: Gregoire wins, and EVERY lefty special interest group from the gay lobby calling for a DOMA repeal to NARAL to the WEA to the state public employees' union is going to be demading more goodies which means more of your money and more... It's going to be a free-for-all and I frankly have a problem with that.
Posted by: Josef on November 8, 2004 04:05 PMYour wish may not come true... Gregoire just took a nice size lead...16,567
Posted by: Editor on November 8, 2004 04:09 PMIf those ballots are Eastide, Rossi is in. If they're Seattle, it's Gregoire, and the fiasco Josef mentions above.
Posted by: (the other) John Hawkins on November 8, 2004 04:10 PMThese are to cold, hard facts: The Democrats' New Deal and Great Society coalitions are fast collapsing as we sit here. Meanwhile, Gregoire's near self-destruction shows she doesn't have the guile or vision to keep her party together and lead this state. With some hard work and just a little luck, the GOP will take away Cantwell's seat, re-take the state Senate, and oust Gregoire in the next four years.
Posted by: D.J. on November 8, 2004 04:23 PMMore recent history - the 1994 elections - reveals what happened the last time the Ds controlled Olympia.
It's not the end of the world if Dino loses. It's happened before - and a correction occured.
It should also be noted those 1994 elections also took out a first-term congressional representative - Maria Cantwell.
Posted by: jimg on November 8, 2004 05:02 PMCorrect me if I'm wrong, but I think King County lost some 'remaining' ballots today.
At the start of the day they reported 119,000 remaining. They reported about 60,000 in King County today. That would leave 59,000 remaining. But they are now reporting that only 46,000 remain to be counted.
How do they determine the number remaining? From a count, or an estimate by weight or crate size?
If King County ends up with 13,000 fewer ballots to count, that's the same as 2,600 fewer votes for Gregoire.
Posted by: Larry on November 8, 2004 06:06 PMBut second--and most important--according to my (hopefully now accurate) number crunching, all Rossi needs now is for the rest of the uncounted votes to come in exactly as the counted votes did. This is the first time this has happened since I started counting, and this is very good news.
Posted by: Timothy on November 8, 2004 06:43 PMUnless there's dramatic swing in the next couple days, an automatic recount (within one half of one percent) is is order.
When's the new governor's budget due?
Posted by: jimg on November 8, 2004 08:09 PMI don't know if you say Tim Zenik's message to Gregoire supporters today (I get this from a secret source) but I thought I should start passing it along to my fellow pro-Rossi friends:
"We need to keep our campaign staff intact during this process so we can SEND PEOPLE INTO EVERY COUNTY IN THE STATE TO ENSURE THAT ALL THE VOTES ARE COUNTED.
"We must be prepared for anything in the coming weeks. We must leave nothing to chance. And WE NEED YOUR SUPPORT TO PREPARE.
"This process can cost tens of thousands of dollars in staff, TRAVEL, AND LEGAL FEES."
Okay, the last few times I got that kind of rhetoric from another Democratic lawyer seeking higher office... it was in the event of another "Florida". Something to stew on.
Posted by: Josef on November 8, 2004 08:39 PMWell, it looks like at this point Greggy is up 8736.
Do we get to blame this one on Ruth Bennett? I mean, if Gore got to blame Nader...
Posted by: Editor on November 8, 2004 09:15 PMSkagit, Yakima and Pierce report in tommorrow (all pro-Rossi counties)
BUT
Snohomish & Spokane are WEDNESDAY (deep Rossi country)
All of those I named have at LEAST 10,000 ballots to go. King only has 46,000 - versus 47,500 from 3 pro-Rossi counties tommorrow, with substantial help on the way.
If by tomorrow night Dino can't break out, then get worried. If Wednesday isn't Dino's day, then start the paperwork to go to Gordon Campbell's buisness-friendly B.C. (or a half-dozen other places) Wednesday night...
You just watch: Transparency in gov't legislation down the toilet bowl. State employee lobby gets whatever they want, when they want. WEA not far behind. No performance audit. State either disintegrates spending & deficit caps or raises taxes through roof. Megaprojects go flop and WE get the bill. Eyman has field day, meaning more havoc on top of it.
This is what happens when you put a state employee union pawn in charge. Doubt me - find just about any RATIONAL British Columbian and ask them about the NDP, about Glen Clark and the PacifiCats. Or just read "Barbarians in the Garden City" by Mark Milke. Enuf said for one night.
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