UPDATE: See this later post for up-to-date returns as they come in on Monday, Nov. 15.
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The summary table below was updated throughout the day (Friday, Nov. 12) as new numbers were reported. See the rest of the post below for more explanation of the columns.
| Time | Rossi's Current Lead | Uncounted Ballots Remaining | Share of Uncounted in Rossi Counties | Rossi's Projected Victory Margin | Rossi's Estimated Lead in Uncounted | Gregoire's Hurdle | Counties Reporting |
| 10:04 | 3,720 | 81,440 | 4,403 | 0.84% | 4.57% | Pierce, Pend Oreille Adams, Stevens | |
| 11:29 | 3,753 | 81,165 | 4,429 | 0.83% | 4.62% | Mason | |
| 12:05 | 3,715 | 81,115 | 4,402 | 0.85% | 4.58% | San Juan | |
| 13:27 | 3,766 | 80,615 | 4,451 | 0.85% | 4.67% | Grays Harbor | |
| 13:40 | 3,719 | 80,465 | 4,431 | 0.88% | 4.62% | Jefferson | |
| 14:04 | 3,751 | 74,965 | 58.6% | 4,338 | 0.78% | 5.00% | Snohomish |
| 15:09 | 3,919 | 73,815 | 58.0% | 4,416 | 0.67% | 5.31% | Island |
| 15:48 | 3,928 | 72,115 | 57.0% | 4,401 | 0.66% | 5.45% | Kitsap |
| 15:55 | 3,926 | 72,115 | 57.0% | 4,399 | 0.66% | 5.44% | Klickitat |
| 16:21 | 3,914 | 71,715 | 56.7% | 4,344 | 0.60% | 5.46% | Whitman |
| 16:32 | 526 | 56,515 | 69.9% | 3,131 | 4.61% | 0.93% | King Yakima |
| 16:39 | 701 | 56,215 | 69.7% | 3,208 | 4.46% | 1.25% | Douglas Skagit |
| 16:51 | 673 | 56,415 | 69.5% | 3,175 | 4.44% | 1.19% | Whatcom |
| 17:19 | 759 | 53,423 | 67.8% | 3,139 | 4.46% | 1.42% | Pierce |
| 17:26 | 864 | 53,123 | 67.6% | 3,158 | 4.32% | 1.63% | Chelan |
| 18:06 | 1,686 | 45,773 | 62.4% | 3,440 | 3.83% | 3.68% | Spokane |
| 18:28 | 1,920 | 41,623 | 60.4% | 3,403 | 3.56% | 4.61% | Clark, Cowlitz |
[NOTE: The following analysis applied to the earliest results this morning, reflected in the top row of the table above]
Here's where things stand as of this morning
Rossi is leading by 3,720 votes, with 81,440 uncounted ballots remaining.
Of the uncounted ballots, 31,225 are in Gregoire counties, 50,215 in Rossi counties.
Weighted for the number of uncounted ballots in each county, and the way these counties have thrown all of their previously counted ballots, Rossi has a 0.84% lead in the uncounted ballots, or an extra 683 votes. So his total projected margin of victory is 4,403.
On the other hand, the votes that were counted this week (all absentee and provisional) were even more favorable to Rossi than were the votes counted last week (poll ballots plus some absentee). If the remaining uncounted votes are more similar in composition to the other votes that were counted this week, Rossi's lead in the uncounted ballots would be 1.22% (992 votes), for a total margin of victory of 4,712.
Is there any chance of Gregoire winning? Yes, but only if the uncounted ballots are sufficiently different in nature from the counted ballots that instead of giving Rossi a 0.84% overall lead (1.22% this week), they would give Gregoire a 4.57% lead.
It's not immediately obvious why we should expect the uncounted ballots to be that much more favorable to Gregoire than the counted ballots.
Tim Goddard points out that the Tacoma News Tribune is the first newspaper to finally do the same sort of spreadsheet vote count analysis that Tim and I are doing. I cordially welcome our colleagues in the professional media to the 20th century! And in spite of the fact the numbers are not going their way, the desperate Dems are filing lawsuits to overturn the laws of mathematics, or something. Give it up, sore losers.
Instead of adding a lot of words as new votes roll in, I'll update the top table to show how the count is unfolding. The rightmost column "Gregoire's Hurdle" indicates the lead she would have to hold in the uncounted ballots in order to overcome Rossi's current lead.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 12, 2004 11:20 AM | Email ThisCan you tell how the recent batch of King County votes broke?
Tim
Posted by: Tim Ford on November 12, 2004 04:53 PMWhatcom also out there with 3K counties
Posted by: Josef on November 12, 2004 05:05 PMIt's a bit of an improvement for Gregoire, but even if King's remaining 11,000 uncounted ballots break as did today's, it's still unlikely to be enough to overcome Rossi's lead.
Republicans are going to want to handle this aggressively, going after any Republican voters whose names might be on that list.
Posted by: Nathan on November 12, 2004 05:17 PM"In tears, Democratic Party chairman Paul Berendt said volunteers would work through the weekend to contact the voters.
"We're up to it," he said, his voice breaking. "We've had hundreds of people volunteer to help.""
Give me a break. Tears? Voice breaking? Spare me the dramatics.
Yes. Every vote should be counted. Every vote, and I don't care what that particular voter's preference is ... though if they were really paying attention to their civic duty, we wouldn't have provisional ballots. Whatever.
But crying about winning a judge's ruling? And the P-I providing the hanky?
And these are the people who want to be in charge of the House, Senate and Governor's mansion.
Give me a break.
Posted by: jimg on November 12, 2004 06:25 PMI really find all of this bull unfair to the guys who vote and vote correctly, doubly so for those, unlike this absentee, who actually go to a voting booth. Why do we have to make it so hard about voting? What is so hard about making a mark on a piece of paper? What is so hard about signing a ballot?
A thought.
Posted by: Josef on November 12, 2004 06:42 PMAbout 44 percent of ballots were counted today, yet 56 percent were counted in King County. Rossi really should be narrowly behind today rather than 1,920 votes ahead. About 15,000 votes were counted in Gregoire counties today, only 12,000 in Rossi's.
Despite what the Gregoire campaign is saying, this was a great day for Rossi despite what the Democrats are saying. Gregoire is running out of votes in counties leaning to her and her campaign knows the fat lady is about to sing.
Posted by: Terry Mueller on November 12, 2004 08:24 PM
How in the flaming ()*&)(*)(* do they line up 'Sealed, uncounted absentee ballot envelopes' with 'Registered voters'?
This step _must_ be done if there's provisional ballots, which there are. (Otherwise one might vote absentee _and_ provisional, since without lining up the ballots with the rolls there's no check to prevent this.)
This screams 'time consuming' if they are indeed doing this, or 'fraud' if they are not. And the remedy (either a line labeled "Print name here" or a preprinted name) is quite simple.
Posted by: Al on November 12, 2004 08:27 PMWe could deserve a break too. We suffer from the save I-5 disease tha WA suffers from, rampant secular liberalism.
Holding our breath.
Posted by: Carl Yee on November 13, 2004 02:58 PM>>Ryan Bianchi, communications assistant for the Gregoire campaign, said the canvassers knock on doors and ask if the person is a Gregoire voter. "If they say no, we just tell them to have a nice day," he said. If they said yes, then they continued with the process
And near the end of the article:
>>"Clearly it's such a close race that what we're trying to do is find as many votes as possible," Bianchi said. "This is a rare situation where it can come down to a few votes, so we want to make sure that everybody who voted gets their vote counted."
He means every vote for Gregoire, that is.
Posted by: Jody Wilkins on November 15, 2004 12:29 PM