I'll be updating the table below throughout the day on Monday as new reports come in. There are a few more columns than there were in Friday's table. See the bottom of the post for explanation.
Scheduled ballot returns from Whitman, Lincoln and Franklin counties did not materialize today.
Well here's an interesting surprise. King County, which claimed earlier to have 11,000 uncounted ballots, today reported 15,000 votes and claims there's another 4,000 ballots remaining. This narrows Rossi's projected lead, but doesn't predict a Gregoire victory. Of course, our model doesn't take into account the surprise discovery of thousands of previously non-existent ballots.
| Time | Rossi's Current Lead |
Uncounted Ballots Remaining |
Share of Uncounted in Rossi Counties |
Rossi's Projected Victory Margin "Latest" |
Rossi's Projected Victory Margin "Overall" |
Estimated Lead in Uncounted "Latest" |
Estimated Lead in Uncounted "Overall" |
Gregoire's Hurdle |
Counties Reporting |
| Friday end of day |
1,920
|
41,623
|
60.4%
|
1,676
|
3,403
|
0.59%
|
3.56%
|
4.61%
|
|
| Mon. 10:25am |
1,935
|
41,423
|
60.2%
|
1,671
|
3,417
|
0.64%
|
3.58%
|
4.67%
|
Grays Harbor |
| 11:02am |
1,948
|
41,273
|
60.1%
|
1,658
|
3,419
|
0.70%
|
3.56%
|
4.72%
|
Clallam |
| 12:17pm |
1,988
|
38,873
|
57.6%
|
1,684
|
3,405
|
0.78%
|
3.65%
|
5.11%
|
Snohomish |
| 3:53pm |
1,974
|
36,573
|
55.0%
|
1,655
|
3,359
|
0.87%
|
3.79%
|
5.40%
|
Kitsap |
| 4:23pm |
1,978
|
36,393
|
54.7%
|
1,594
|
3,304
|
1.06%
|
3.64%
|
5.44%
|
Douglas |
| 4:29pm |
(657)
|
27,493
|
65.5%
|
448
|
1,365
|
4.02%
|
7.35%
|
*
|
King, Walla Walla |
| 5:59pm |
(158)
|
21,666
|
56.3%
|
514
|
1,430
|
3.10%
|
7.33%
|
*
|
Chelan, Clark, Kittitas, Okanogan, Pierce |
* The two columns "Rossi's Projected Victory Margin" estimate Rossi's final lead under two different assumptions -- (1) "Latest", meaning that any new returns for a given county will break like the most recent returns from that county; (2) "Overall", meaning that any new returns for a given county will, on average, break like all of the previously counted votes from that county.
* Similarly, the two columns "Estimated Lead in Uncounted" estimate the percentage by which the leading candidate is ahead of the trailing candidate in the uncounted ballots using the "Latest" vs. "Overall" scenarios, as above. The number is in RED if Rossi is leading under the scenario; in GREEN, if Gregoire is leading under the scenario.
* "Gregoire's Hurdle" indicates the percentage lead she would be required to take in the uncounted ballots in order to win. Compare this number against the "Estimated Lead" figures to assess the feasibility of a Gregoire win. (For example, a 4% Hurdle for Gregoire combined with a 3% estimated lead for Rossi means that the lead in the uncounted ballots would have to suddently swing by 7 percentage points in order for her to win, which seems somewhat implausible )
A longer explanation and a table with projected leads by county (as of end of day Friday) are here
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 15, 2004
12:01 AM | Email This
Does anyone know whether Benton County's estimate
of remaining ballots is more accurate this year?
If it is, Dino's chances are excellent.
Posted by: Dave on November 15, 2004 08:17 AMBeing one of those "immoral Democrats", I do have to admit that I voted for Dino because I felt he was the best suited for the job. In fact, the ONLY reason I went to the polls was to vote for Dino. I did not cast a vote for president because I could not in good conscience vote for any of them. I look for moderation in our political figures and Dino seemed to be the only one who offered that kind of balance.
I am not happy that on the federal level our government has moved from one extreme to another, but on the state level I am hopeful that we can move from the extreme left to the center.
Posted by: Political Pulpt on November 15, 2004 09:54 AMThose are terrific instructions.
I reached my Friday end-of-day "Overall" estimate of a 3,403 vote victory the same way that you reached your (rounded) 3,400 estimate.
This estimate assumes that all of the uncounted ballots will break the same way as the average of all previously counted ballots for their counties. But it's also reasonable to assume that the late counted ballots were cast by voters who are in some ways different from the voters who cast the earlier counted ballots.
Therefore, I also created the "Latest" estimate which assumes that the uncounted ballots will break more like the most recent returns. The final outcome will probably fall somewhere in between the two.
Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on November 15, 2004 10:07 AMHere's a trivia point for you watchers. Over 50,000 plus voters voted for Kerry or Bush and did not vote in the Governor's race. 50,000+.
Most were democrats, but some had to be republicans. It happens every four years people cast one ballot and left the booth. I suspect that even many of the absentee ballots had just one vote on them.
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 11:21 AMed.
thanks
Posted by: nathan on November 15, 2004 03:13 PMYes that is actually what spurred on the King County lawsuit. 19 of 21 counties that Rossi had good leads in had already released that information. Republicans and election officials were calling.
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 03:40 PM1. If you look at the other or no votes in the batch of King County votes it totaled over 10%. The % of under votes and libertian votes in this race so far is about 5%. I believe that many of these provisional ballots will not have a vote for Governor. If it true that many of these student ballots it may be that will not do downballot.
2. The number of ballots out is no guarantee that a vote for Governor will be on it. I will try to look the Presidential vote changes and try to determine whether there is much of a dropoff.
Posted by: ralph on November 15, 2004 03:50 PMEveryone will be tired of me posting. 14 vote edge to Gregoire there.
Here is the big news???
1842 votes were cast in Governor's race on these ballots.
2106 votes were cast for President. 264 voters or over 10% did not vote in the Governor's race.
Now what would happen in these calculations if 10% of the remaining ballots did not have a vote for Governor on it. It would move Rossi's numbers higher and make it harder for CG.
Great news.
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 04:05 PM"Screw the numbers. I don't give a crap about numbers. The only numbers I care about are the final ones. I don't care about trends, spreadsheets, predictions, or any of that, just like I could care less about polls. I don't want to hear it. I get enough of it... already. Enough is enough!"
Valiantly defiant 'til the end. Poor guy - IT IS OVER (as I giggle).
Posted by: Josef on November 15, 2004 04:07 PMA spoiled ballot, no vote on a ballot, or a vote for Bennett are really votes for Rossi.
I have to step out to get a child so my best wishes are with Rossi as I leave.
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 04:10 PMJust a friendly scoop from "Aluminum Hat Boy."
Posted by: David Goldstein on November 15, 2004 04:21 PMDavid Goldstein's different, that's all. He's also smart, you know.
The Marlboro boy of Fallujah is a hero and a patriot who should smoke, smoke, smoke if that's what keeps the boy alive.
Posted by: Josef on November 15, 2004 04:26 PMCan you say re-count????
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 15, 2004 04:45 PMOnly 14,989 Gubernatorial votes. Rossi is now down 657, but I believe that this will be a low point.
Walla Walla came in okay with only 2% dropoff.
2111 votes in Presidential and 2056 in Governor's race. King had 14.5% of ballots with either no vote for Governor or a vote for Bennett.
I still think Rossi has an edge.
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 04:50 PMStill, though, these most recent votes broke better for Rossi than they have been recently, so things are still looking good. But, yeah, I can say "recount." We'd all better learn how to, unless other counties suddenly find a bunch more votes too.
Posted by: Timothy on November 15, 2004 04:54 PMHow convenient for the Democrats that their best county suddently comes up with 40% more votes than originally thought.
And they still have 4K left...
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 15, 2004 05:00 PM"Everyone with a computer is a statistician, and everyone with a mouth is a pundit."
-- Gregoire campaign consultant Christian Sinderman
http://www.spokesmanreview.com/olympia/blog.asp
Of course it's not the truth that these votes previously did not exist. The truth is that so many ballots requires a lot of counting, and so the report was updated -- to your dismay.
Have a good night. I hope this helps you with your thinking.
Posted by: Heath Hunnicutt on November 15, 2004 05:03 PMBureacratic slipup. The uncounted ballot number supplied to the state is for informational purposes only. The site very clearly says that they cannot those numbers.
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 05:19 PMHow is it that it takes so long for ballots mailed 2 November to get to the county auditors?
I mean, I mail something to a friend in Olympia from Sedro-Woolley it takes 2, 3 days absolute max. I would tend to think the ballots with their special envelopes would be there in 2 days.
Josef
Posted by: Josef on November 15, 2004 05:34 PMAs my old buddy Dan Rather said "This race is tighter then a jar lid on a bottle of stewed tomatoes".
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 05:42 PMI just wish it was Goldstein (or Talmadge or to some extent, Sims) and not Gregoire. Then we'd have a REAL campaign on ideas and less of a divide. My .02 .
I hope all of you join me in praying this doesn't end up dividing the state and that both sides play this fair 'til the end.
Posted by: Josef on November 15, 2004 05:44 PMMaybe YOU should get a job working at the polls next time, or keep your sarcasm to yourself.
I did work the polls this election, as a volunteer no less! I'll be waiting for your thanks, by the way!
But I DO know that every precinct made a physical count of ALL absentee and ALL provisional ballots THAT NIGHT!
So the questions are:
1. Why can't King County Election workers make a proper tabulation (sum) of a list of numbers?
2. Why would hourly King County Election employees want a recount? (Can anyone say OVERTIME PAY?)
Like I said, HEATH, I await your answers, and your thanks to me for taking a day off my high-paid IT job to VOLUNTEER on election day.
You're welcome!
Posted by: Larry on November 15, 2004 06:07 PMI punched the new numbers (and revised uncounted estimates from washington state website) into Tim Goddard's model and it yields a projected lead of 189 to 1425 for Rossi.
Pierce county now reporting since my last post (previous post without Pierce just above)
PIERCE: 1984:Gregoire 2150:Rossi (good news for Rossi) (many more ballots and bigger rossi margin). Pierce has 106 more to count
Gregoire now leads by 158 in COUNTED ballots
I punched the new numbers (and revised uncounted estimates from washington state website) into Tim Goddard's model and it yields a projected final margin of 351 to 1457 for Rossi.
Posted by: John B on November 15, 2004 06:36 PMIf Benton county turns out to again only have 50 ballots left this year rather than the 2,200 shown on washington state web site then the contest is MUCH closer!
Using Tim Goddard's model including 5:59PM Pierce County results (see above post) but INSTEAD using only 50 remaining uncounted Benton County ballots rather than 2200 yields a range of projected margins of Rossi winning by +625 to Gregoire winning by +396. Yikes!
Posted by: John B on November 15, 2004 06:52 PMCarol P
Posted by: Carol Petke on November 15, 2004 08:06 PMOn the SOS's website that details the 21,066 ballots still to be counted look at % turnout.
The republican counties, for most part, are the counties with the lower % of turnout. That tells me that they do have more ballots to turn in.
I believe it will happen for Dino.
Posted by: Ralph on November 15, 2004 08:27 PMAfter the Friday 11/05/2004 update report, King County said it had 119,000 ballots left to count.
I remember reading some report that King County counted 63,000 ballots on Monday 11/08/2004.
However, after the Monday 11/08/2004 update report, King County said it had 46,000 ballots left to count.
If 63,000 ballots were counted on 11/08/2004, this figure should have actually been 56,000 ballots.
I sure hope that Benton and Yakima Counties have at least as many uncounted ballots as they are reporting.
Posted by: Richard on November 15, 2004 08:33 PMThat said, IF I WERE AFTON SWIFT AND THEREFORE ROSSI'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER (what would I give for bold): I'd rightfully demand an emergency injunction until the mystery ballots could be verified to keep them from the count. Not going to the courts on this one is stupid, if you ask me. If Gregoire would have done (and may do) the same thing, then there's nothing wrong with that.
Posted by: Josef on November 15, 2004 08:43 PMOn what grounds would Rossi's people take this to court? On the grounds that King County underestimated the remaining number of ballots? That's hardly actionable.
Unless there is something a bit more solid to go on, charging vote fraud because the County's estimate was lower than the actual number of ballots would be like charging vote fraud because the exit polls were higher than the actual votes.
If we're going to (rightly) scoff at the liberal conspiracy theories, we can't start spouting our own. Now I'm not saying don't be skeptical here, but don't jump the gun either.
Posted by: Nathan on November 15, 2004 09:27 PMAnd many of the provisionals are student votes, cast in Whatcom, Whitman, Kittitas, or wherever, and then sent to the home county- the bulk going to King, because that is the largest county.
Quirks in the counts showed up last week in Rossi counties- shortly after King reported today, Okanogan county (having previously reported no votes left to count) reported 8 Rossi, 7 Gregoire.
There is nothing sinister going on- and Rossi is still going to win.
Posted by: Jim King on November 15, 2004 10:18 PM