Sound Politics: Tuesday Vote Count

November 16, 2004

Tuesday Vote Count

I'll be updating the table below throughout the day as new returns are announced. The table columns are the same as yesterday. See this post for explanation.

As I mentioned earlier, these are only estimates and projections based on the most recent available information from the Sec. of State and counties. This information has proven itself to be insufficiently reliable for making any real predictions, so I'm no longer going to call the race for either candidate at this point.

Note also that Grays Harbor is going to recount, which is expected to improve Gregoire's margin by some unknown amount.

UPDATE: An observer in Grays Harbor reports hearing from the county auditor that they expect 500 new votes for Gregoire. Apparently the auditor thinks they "might have counted a batch of votes twice". [so now they're going to count the batch a third time? -- Ed.]

UPDATE 2 The "Hurdle" column now shows the minimum lead in the uncounted ballots the trailing candidate would need to take in order to overcome their current shortfall

Time	Rossi's Current Lead	Uncounted Ballots Remaining	Share of Uncounted in Rossi Counties	Rossi's Projected Victory Margin "Latest"	Rossi's Projected Victory Margin "Overall"	Estimated Lead in Uncounted "Latest"	Estimated Lead in Uncounted "Overall"	Gregoire's (Rossi's) Hurdle	Counties Reporting
Monday end of day	(158)	21,666	56.3%	514	1,430	3.10%	7.33%	0.73%
Tuesday 2:33pm	(196)	21,551	56.0%	477	1,393	3.12%	7.37%	0.91%	Jefferson Snohomish
Tuesday 3:32pm	(186)	21,431	55.8%	493	1,395	3.17%	7.38%	0.87%	Douglas Kitsap
Tuesday 3:38pm	(168)	21,391	55.7%	507	1,410	3.16%	7.38%	0.79%	Spokane
Tuesday 3:52pm	(163)	21,041	55.0%	530	1,381	3.29%	7.34%	0.77%	Whitman
Tuesday 3:55pm	(124)	20,866	54.6%	557	1,415	3.26%	7.37%	0.59%	Mason
Tuesday 4:16pm	236	18,566	49.0%	612	1,597	2.02%	7.33%	1.27%	Skagit
Tuesday 4:47pm	292	18,236	48.0%	585	1,558	1.61%	6.94%	1.60%	Chelan
Tuesday 5:00pm	(89)	15,136	58.0%	832	1,238	6.08%	8.77%	0.59%	Whatcom
Tuesday 5:27pm	782	11,186	43.1%	618	804	1.46%	0.20%	7.01%	Benton Yakima Walla Walla
Tuesday 5:27pm	621	9,331	51.7%	616	804	0.06%	1.96%	6.66%	Okanogan Thurston
Tuesday 6:12pm	304	5,483	72.6%	914	948	11.13%	11.74%	5.54%	King Island
Tuesday 6:19pm	91	6,404	57.4%	560	543	10.17%	9.90%	1.42%	Grays Harbor
Tuesday 6:21pm	33	6,152	55.7%	653	613	10.07%	9.42%	0.54%	Kittitas
Tuesday 7:25pm	19	6,127	55.9%	633	599	10.01%	9.46%	0.31%	Cowlitz

Next scheduled reports (should be taken as only a very rough guide)

County	Estimated Uncounted Votes	Time Due
Franklin	250	Monday
Klickitat	100	4:30pm

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 16, 2004 11:22 AM | Email This

Comments

1. How convenient that the recount is expected to help out Gregoire.

I wonder if they would even bother if they thought Rossi might be the beneficiary.

Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 16, 2004 11:49 AM

2. I have reliable information that the D's in GH county are saying that 508 Rossi ballots were double counted.

I guess if you don't like the result just keep recounting until you get one you do like.

A few more unexpected votes from King, Thurston and Whatcom counties should just about complete the theft of this election.

Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 16, 2004 12:50 PM

3. According to the Grays Harbor "Daily World:" "Election workers started from scratch this morning, recounting all the ballots cast in the Nov. 2 General Election after a problem was found with the counting system, Auditor Vern Spatz said." He also said that "the numbers in the close gubernatorial race will add to Democrat Christine Gregoire's total."

I'd sure like more info - if Mr. Sharkansky's quote is true (that Spatz thinks he may have counted a batch of votes twice,) correcting the error could not possibly add to anyone's total. It could subtract from someone's total, but not add. So what kind of "problem with the counting system" can make Spatz sure that the correction "will add" to CG's total? I can't think of any unless there are "new" ballots to count.

Of course what Spatz may have really meant was that correcting the error would result in Dino's total getting reduced, which would have the same effect as increasing CGs totals. But tell me how an honest mistake like counting a pile of ballets twice can result in only Dino ballots being thrown out? And if he was leading by a percentage and a pile of Dino and CG ballots were counted twice, by correcting the count, on average, he would lose more votes than she, but the overall percentage of vote totals would change very little if any. YET SPATZ IS SURE THAT CORRECTING THE MISTAKE WILL ADD TO CGS TOTAL.

I don't like to promote conspiracy theories, but this news smells like a rat.

Posted by: Steve Rogers on November 16, 2004 12:55 PM

4. Given the widespread irregularities with provisionals across the country, it's hard for me to not believe that this is fishy.

I heard a report on the radio this morning about movon.org rounding van-loads of folks up to go to polls, who weren't registered, to get them to cast provisionals. I'd like to find out where those tales came from and if they have any credibility.

Rest assurred that all the projected numbers for remaining ballots in Rossi counties were right on the money or even a little high.

I'd trackback you but I don't see that option. But, I've mentioned you in my blog here

Posted by: Jeff on November 16, 2004 01:06 PM

5. Grays Harbor may have indeed counted some batch of votes twice. They are showing a 92.93% turnout (with another almost 1% of registered voters in uncounted ballots to boot!), when the statewide average is only 81.47%. This is almost 5% more than the next highest county.

Rossi has been leading Gregoire by about 10% in the absentee votes, while he was several percent behind her in the poll vote from Grays Harbor.

If some absentee votes have been counted twice, correcting the error is highly unlikely to result in a 500 net vote gain for Gregoire.

If 508 Rossi votes were double counted, this batch of ballots probably also included about 400 to 425 votes for Gregoire. So the net gain to Gregoire from correcting this error should only be about 100 votes.

Posted by: Conspiracy Nut on November 16, 2004 01:07 PM

6. Conspiracy Nut, The Grays Harbor election returns web site shows at this writing that Rossi led in the "election day" ballots, but not the absentees.

Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on November 16, 2004 01:11 PM

7. The count on Election Night, however, had Rossi behind in Grays Harbor County- because thatr count included the votes counted at the polls that day, AND the absentee vote counted that evening- which would have been early absentee vote, before the marked trend upward for Dino.

Any double-count would have padded Rossi's margin, any correction will reduce it. The county auditor is taking the correct course in recounting every vote and getting it done right, with both parties there to o9bserve.

Human error is not a nefarious plot.

Posted by: Jim King on November 16, 2004 01:20 PM

8. Stefan, that is exactly what the Grays Harbor County elections website shows at present -- that Rossi led on election day, and that Gregoire has been gaining ground in absentee ballots.

Something is obviously wrong with their figures. Gregoire was actually ahead by several points on election night in Grays Harbor. As absentee votes were reported, that margin kept getting smaller, until Rossi finally came out ahead.

Yet the figures that Grays Harbor is putting out on their website would suggest the exact opposite.

Does anyone have the daily figures from Grays Harbor? These would show Rossi gaining from absentees, and not Gregoire.

Something very suspicious is going on in Grays Harbor County.

Posted by: Conspiracy Nut on November 16, 2004 01:20 PM

9. Conspiracy Nut- read my last post. Grays Harbor is reporting NOT that Rossi led Election Night, but that he led in votes cast at the polls Election Day. Early absentees were counted that evening, also, giving Gregoire an Election Night lead. Nothing suspicious...

Posted by: Jim King on November 16, 2004 01:22 PM

10. You know, I would find it ironic if the Grays Harbor recount actually reduced the number of Gregoire votes and padded Rossi's margin. I don't see why that couldn't just as easily be the case.

Posted by: Nathan on November 16, 2004 01:42 PM

11. Gray harbor is at 92.76% turnout on the SOS sheet. Way too high. This may help Dino?

Posted by: Ralph on November 16, 2004 04:10 PM

12. If the race is within 150 votes, a manual recount is required.

Posted by: Tim Ford on November 16, 2004 04:15 PM

13. Skagit just came in with more votes then expected.

I have a new theory of the day. On the SOS site there is % turnout and ballots to be counted.
Statewide its at 81.67%. Anybody well below that may have more ballots to account for like Skagit.

Just a theory, but I cannot imagine republican counties having lower turnout % then democratic counties. It usually works the other way.

Posted by: Ralph on November 16, 2004 04:25 PM

14. Pass the hat. A manual recount costs 25 cents per ballot. For a recount in just the Gregoire counties, it would cost over $800,000.

Posted by: Tim Ford on November 16, 2004 04:31 PM

15. My apologies, my math was in error. The cost of a statewide manual recount is $697,746. The cost of a manual recount in just the Gregoire Counties plus Grays Harbor is $294,120.

Posted by: Tim Ford on November 16, 2004 05:05 PM

16. I think the daily figures for Grays Harbor are as follows:

Election Night: 12522 Greg., 12470 Rossi
11/5 2204 Greg., 2199 Rossi
11/10 1054 Greg., 1276 Rossi
11/12 342 Greg., 393 Rossi
11/15 154 Greg., 169 Rossi

Posted by: Brent Boger on November 16, 2004 10:25 PM

17. I'm shocked no one has mentioned the validity of the ballots. As Michelle Malkin points out in one of her recent articles that this is an ongoing problem account for approximately a 2/3's vote for the democratic party. When is this state and other's going to get a clue. Just being a body doesn't mean it is a legitimate vote.

Posted by: rik w on November 17, 2004 12:04 AM

18. Human error is not a nefarious plot.

I get suspicious when all the error adds up to one side's benefit.

Posted by: South County on November 17, 2004 10:13 AM