Sound Politics: Final Day of Vote Counting

November 16, 2004

Final Day of Vote Counting

UPDATE: This post is useful as background for understanding Wednesday's vote count, which is being tracked in the more recent post, here

Wednesday is the final day of vote counting (until we start the ineluctable recount). Assuming the estimates of uncounted ballots are even remotely accurate (fat chance), and based on the reports and estimates of some King County vote observers (one of which is posted below), here is a flavor of what to expect on Wednesday. This is not a prediction, but the numbers still give a slight advantage to Rossi.

Excluding King County, there are said to be approximately 5,100 uncounted ballots -- 1,700 in counties that Gregoire has carried by a narrow margin (about 3%), and 3,400 in counties that Rossi has carried by a wide margin (about 23%). Based on the Sec. of State numbers, about 97% of these uncounted ballots will include a gubernatorial vote. That adds up to about a 730 vote advantage for Rossi. An observer estimates that Wednesday's King County ballots will swing to Gregoire by close to 700 votes.

The punch line -- Rossi would widen his lead by 30-40 votes on Wednesday, adding to his current 19 vote lead, for a final victory margin of 50 - 60. Realistically, the underlying data are too rough and the differences are too small to be significant. If one candidate has a numerical advantage, that would be Rossi, but it's too close to call. This table shows how close.

Group	Estimated Uncounted Votes	Approx. % Lead	Approx. Projected Vote Lead
Rossi Counties	3,400	23%	+775
Gregoire Counties (Excl. King)	1,700	3%	-45
King County (non-affidavit)	800	18%	-144
King County (affidavit)	650		-550
Advantage Rossi			+36

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 16, 2004 11:13 PM | Email This

Comments

1. NO MATTER HOW IT TURNS OUT IN THE RACE FOR GOVENOR YOU FOLKS IN WASHINGTON CERTAINLY KNOW HOW TO PUT ON A SHOW.

I LIVE IN TEXAS AND HAVE FRIENDS ALL OVER THE COUNTRY VISITING YOUR WEBSITE SEVERAL TIMES A DAY. YOU HAVE PROVIDED ENTERTAINMENT FOR US AS YOU KEEP US UP TO DATE ON THE VOTE COUNT AND EXPLAIN WASHINGTON POLITICS.

I, LIKE YOU AM FOR ROSSI. I GUESS ALL WE CAN DO NOW IS CROSS OUR FINGERS.

THANKS, JOE

Posted by: JOE on November 17, 2004 01:13 AM

2. NO MATTER HOW IT TURNS OUT IN THE RACE FOR GOVENOR YOU FOLKS IN WASHINGTON CERTAINLY KNOW HOW TO PUT ON A SHOW.

I, LIKE YOU AM FOR ROSSI. I GUESS ALL WE CAN DO NOW IS CROSS OUR FINGERS.

THANKS, JOE

Posted by: JOE on November 17, 2004 01:13 AM

3. Yeah, I'm watching from NYC and this is a nail biter. Great website!

Posted by: bobm on November 17, 2004 07:38 AM

4. For a spreadsheet that updates every ten minutes and projects the final tally based upon county-by-county returns, see

http://www.murdoconline.net/archives/001729.html

Washington sure is putting a spectacle.

Posted by: murdoc on November 17, 2004 07:52 AM

5. I hear ya both. I wish WE weren't the new electoral spectacle. I'd trade 100 days of continious rain for this.

Josef

Posted by: Josef on November 17, 2004 08:13 AM

6. Stefan,

The SOS website shows 6127 votes remaining.

Tim

Posted by: Tim Ford on November 17, 2004 08:20 AM

7. I think you all need to know:

Q: What are the requirements for a machine versus hand recount?
"A manual recount will occur if the difference between the top two candidates is less than one-quarter of one percent and the two are separated by 150 votes or fewer."

Josef

P.S. Please be nicer to Jenny. Or else... :-)

Posted by: Josef on November 17, 2004 08:38 AM

8. However, the candidates may agree in writing to an alternative to a manual recount for each county. RCW 29A.64.021.

Posted by: Tim Ford on November 17, 2004 08:51 AM

9. Good point, Tim. I read that too...

Posted by: Josef on November 17, 2004 09:23 AM

10. Why are the affidavit ballots projected to
break radically differtly than absentee ballots
in King as a whole?

Rossi lost the absentee vote by less than 18%.
In a representative sample, that would be
something like 522-378 in the Democrat's favor.

If the Democrats polled the rejected absentee
voters, and only turned in those affidavits
from voters who claimed to have voted for the
Democrat they still couldn't break the
ceiling of a 522 vote lead.

Has it been established that the Democrats
polled before offering the service?

Posted by: Dave on November 17, 2004 09:46 AM

11. The Seattle Times reported this morning that Yakima County has denied a Republican request for a list of rejected ballots. Either King County or Yakima is wrong. The Washington Supreme court needs to figure this our the US Supreme court should. US Citizens are promised equal protection under the law by the constitution. This is not happening. I don't care what they decide, but it must apply to all citizens.

Posted by: Mike on November 17, 2004 10:02 AM

12. I also have some question about the projection
for pro-G counties outside of King.

Most of the voters are from Gray's Harbor.
Georgiore lead among election day voters, but
Rossi leads among absentee voters. If the sample
of ballots not yet counted is random, Rossi ought
to gain another 100 voters, or so.

On the other hand, the sample might not be random.
If the estimate of a total Rossi loss of 508
votes in the recount is correct, and if he lost
only about 400 yesterday, we know he will lose
another 100 today, plus or minus his gain or loss
among the last 300 previously uncounted
absentee ballots.

If the votes are there in Benton, Franklin
and Stevens counties, I think Rossi will win.

Posted by: Dave on November 17, 2004 10:07 AM

13. Could there be more than 600 ballots left in Stevens County? When those are added to the ones counted it makes the turnout around 70% which would be the lowest in the state.

Posted by: Jim on November 17, 2004 10:14 AM

14. Thanks for the drama, Washington (and go Rossi!).

I'm watching from Philly, where I thought the local Dems held the patent on mass production of "votes." Turns out our friendly local machine has got nothing on your King County.

Posted by: Mike on November 17, 2004 11:03 AM

15. The Northwest certainly has a tradition of people enduring hardships for their rights. (Think IWW) I hope this race does them proud!

"Tradition means giving votes to the most obscure of all classes, our ancestors. It is the democracy of the Dead." G.K. Chesterton!

Izzie

Posted by: Izzie on November 17, 2004 01:13 PM