Sound Politics: It's Seattle, Stupid

November 28, 2004

It's Seattle, Stupid

Much of the discussion in the gubernatorial count has been about King County's exceptionally large lead for Gregoire. But Gregoire didn't win King County so much as she enjoyed a hyper-landslide in Seattle. Gregoire beat Rossi by more than 3 to 1 in Seattle, but in King County outside of Seattle (65% of the population) Rossi actually won by a narrow margin.

The following tables show the breakdown. First the raw numbers, second the percentages of the two-party vote. [The Seattle numbers come from the King County precinct canvass, which was created from the first certified count, prior to the recount. To be consistent, I'm sticking to the pre-recount numbers, which are almost identical in percentages to the post-recount figures]

	Statewide	King	Seattle	King ex-Seattle	State ex-Seattle
Gregoire	1,371,153	505,243	229,210	276,033	1,141,943
Rossi	1,371,414	350,779	74,061	276,718	1,297,353

	Statewide	King	Seattle	King ex-Seattle	State ex-Seattle
Gregoire	50.0%	59.0%	75.6%	49.9%	46.8%
Rossi	50.0%	41.0%	24.4%	50.1%	53.2%

It's encouraging that Rossi's 24.4% is slightly better than the 24.1% of Seattle that Slade Gorton won in his 2000 re-election fight against Maria Cantwell. Gorton won 53.3% in the rest of the state, slightly better than Rossi did. Rossi's small improvement over Gorton in Seattle appears to have made the difference between Rossi's slender victories in the count and the recount, vs. Gorton's narrow losses in both.

All we would have needed to avoid this year's automatic recount would have been to persuade a mere 870 additional Seattle voters to vote for Rossi instead of Gregoire. That's only 0.38% of Seattle's Gregoire voters. Most of the Seattle voters who voted for Gregoire are not committed Democrats, they're simply independent voters who lean Democrat. It's definitely possible to inspire more Seattle independents to vote for a Republican. Indeed, Rob McKenna and Sam Reed, both attractive candidates albeit with less competitive challengers, won 31% and 36% respectively in Seattle.

Improving our odds in Seattle is doable. But competing for votes means just that. We Seattle Republicans need to do more outreach to our independent voting neighbors. And our statewide candidates need to make stronger appeals to Seattle's independents. Without compromising our principles, and without pandering to the lunatic fringe, we can and must continue to sharpen our platform and message to attract more votes among Seattle's moderate independents.

There is one other thing we can do to improve our odds in Seattle. When we encounter our far-left liberal friends who are dejected about the presidential election and contemplating a move to Canada -- give them a sympathetic and knowing glance and tell them about "The Canadian Option", an immigration seminar to be held next Saturday, December 4 1pm - 2:30pm at the Crown Plaza Hotel.

For the numbers geeks among you, I've posted here a more complete table of data extracted from the Nov. 2 King County precinct canvass. It shows how the major statewide races (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General and Sec. of State) are broken down into state legislative districts (portions in King County) and City of Seattle vs. the rest of the state. Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 28, 2004 11:54 PM | Email This

Comments

1. I may have to reconsider my appelations then, should Gregoire pull off a coup in the recount. Not Governor of King County; Governor of Seattle.

Posted by: Nathan Azinger on November 29, 2004 02:14 AM

2. If Republicans want to improve their vote in Seattle, the formula is a simple one: don't nominate hard line social conservatives for statewide ofices. McKenna and Reed did well here precisely because they fit this formula of cultural moderation. McKenna, for instance, touted himself as pro-choice in the latter stages of the campaign. Reed is one of the last of the Dan Evans-style Republicans, pro-choice, pro-environment, willing to buck the party's orthodoxies, etc. (Reed even got the endorsement of my paper, the Stranger, which is, needless to say, a rarity). Rossi, an astute politician, was savvy enough to avoid hot button social issues during the campaign (one might even argue, were one feeling waggish, that he avoided such issues with something approaching religious fervor), but he had too much of a track record as a culture warrior to convince Seattle voters of his moderation -- the city's voters tend to be politically engaged and thus relatively well informed. Improving only a hair over Slade Gorton in Seattle, as Rossi did, is nothing to cheer about (though it may make the difference in the race); Gorton overtly ran his races as an anti-Seattle candidate.
The most interesting question, to my mind, is why Gregoire underperformed in Seattle relative to the Kerry vote. My check of the preliminary Seattle numbers just after election day showed Kerry taking more than 80 percent of the Seattle vote. If that held up, that means 5 percent of the Seattle electorate voted Kerry/Rossi. Rossi's moderate image probably does have something to do with that, though I suspect Gregoire's tepid, say nothing, uninspiringly cautious campaign is the greater culprit.

Posted by: Sandeep on November 29, 2004 06:44 AM