December 13, 2004
Are Vote Counting Errors Random?
This is not a post I enjoy writing,
but I think I should prepare my fellow Republicans for some possible bad news.
Let me begin by saying that the answer to my question is no. People tend to make mistakes that
favor themselves or their team. For example, I have found that when I balance my checkbook I make mistakes
in my favor about twice as often as I make mistakes in the bank's favor. Grocery store checkers tend
to err in favor of their customers, because that's easier psychologically. I know that when I
watch for a checker's mistakes, I find myself telling them the total is too low far more often than I find
myself telling them it is too high.
The same pattern is found in vote counting. Counters tend to err in favor of their own party.
Please understand that I am saying that people do this even if they do not intend to consciously. (I recall
seeing, years ago, a study that found that counters tended to err in favor of their own parties. As
I recall, and it has been many years, the study was done in Wisconsin, a place that has relatively clean
elections.)
We should expect errors to be more frequent when vote counters have to
count very large numbers of ballots. I would find it fairly easy to keep my full attention on the
ballots for an hour or so, but I am not positive I could do so for an entire day — no matter how
hard I tried. Others will be better than I at paying attention to a boring task, but at least
a few will be worse.
In King county one-third of the vote counters are Democrats, one-third are Republicans, and
one-third are county employees. We can be certain that most of the county employees are
Democrats, so most of the vote counting teams will have 2 Democrats and 1 Republican.
King county has many ballots and mostly Democrat dominated vote counting teams, so I expect that
the vote counting errors in King county will not be random, but will favor the Democrats.
The King county errors might be counter-balanced by Republican favoring errors in other counties.
To reach a conclusion on that, you would have to analyze the rest of the counties individually. I do
think that the smaller counties (nearly all Republican) will be less likely to have errors, simply
because their vote counters will not be working such long hours.
(Cross posted at Jim Miller on Politics.)
Posted by Jim Miller at December 13, 2004
04:25 PM | Email This
1. Are you saying that any significant changes in votes in King County will only be sub-conscience errors, that there is no possibility that the Democratic party are not going to willfully cheat? Interesting theory....
2. I wonder where it is carved in stone that King County has to be the last one to report? Reminds me of Mayor Richard J. Daley adjusting the Cook County returns in 1960 to give John F. Kennedy an 8,000 vote margin in Illinois and consequently the presidency. Why don't the rural GOP counties hold back and wait for King to report instead?
3. Well reasoned and presented. Intent has been assumed (by many on both sides) but that has only led to demonizing.
4. What I am saying is that honest people, trying to count fairly, will still tend to make more errors in their party's favor, than the other party's favor. Republicans will tend to err in favor of Republicans, Democrats in favor of Democrats.
I think errors are especially likely to happen when vote counters work for long hours. so I expect a higher rate of errors in King county than in the smaller counties.
(For my thoughts on possible fraud in this election, you may want to look at my post on "Distributed Vote Fraud.)
5. My understanding is that King County's three person teams are made up of two counters, one Democrat, the other Republican, and the third person is a county employee who's role is only to record the count of the other two. My understanding is that the counters are counting the same ballots, so for example, the Democrat counts 100 ballots, the Republican counts the same 100 ballots, and only if the two counts agree does the county employee then record the count. That would mean that any error in favor of one party would need to be made by both people, i.e. the Republican would have to make the error in favor of the Democrats as well for it to be recorded.
If I'm wrong, please correct me, but this is my understanding of how the manual recount will work in King County. Seems to me that the system they've come up with should prevent these sorts of random, unintended errors.
6. I have enjoyed reading your contributions to Sound Politics since Nov. 2. It seems to me that there is another issue in this election besides error and possible fraud. It is the series of decisions that have been made to help the Democratic candidate. Each time she loses a count, or appears to be on the verge of losing another, someone makes a decision to give her a boost. A judge rules that provisional ballot voters may be contacted by the Democratic party. A councilman complains to the election officials. An election offical decides that ballots that were disallowed weeks before will now be added to the count. Today the State Supreme Court is hearing arguments for additional revisions. It appears to be no longer an election at all, but a struggle based mostly on political influence and skillful manipulation of election procedures.
7. YES! Totally agree..it's not about right, wrong, it's about political influence...doing/saying whatever to get your guy elected! Exactly!
8. Well, gee. Welcome to The People's Republic of Washington.
9. As much as Rossi supporters are understandably questioning what's going on with King County, it would be nice to see a Gregoire supporter acknowledge that to the outside observer, the whole series of events with the King Co election office, and the timing of those events, has created the appearance of suspicious behavior.
That's just the reality of human nature. Until Gregoire apologists acknowledge how events in King County appear suspicious on face value, regardless of any ill-intent, their protests about Republican outcry have no credibility.
10. When a certain group has been in power for an extended length of time, let's say two decades, they have placed nearly all the people they need in positions to keep them in power. It's quite simple really. If you take a historical perspective and examine Stalin's rule in the U.S.S.R., or the more recent example's of Saddam Hussein and Fidel Castro, it is no great challenge to see our opponents are merely using their hero's templates for their own time in power. Now they are afraid the "rabble" has discovered them and they will rest at nothing to retain their stranglehold on our state. Fortunately, as I was at the State Supreme Court today, I saw the people and their enthusiasm for Dino Rossi, and their desire for this madness to stop. Don't let the AP fool you. There was maybe 40-50 in the "CEV" crowd, while the "DCTR" group was, at minimum, 70 strong, with a group of homeschooled youngsters driving from Vancouver to participate in this peace of history. Also, someone brought an inflatable Grinch and had it standing on the steps of the Supreme Court building! It was quite hilarious.
11. "As much as Rossi supporters are understandably questioning what's going on with King County, it would be nice to see a Gregoire supporter acknowledge that to the outside observer, the whole series of events with the King Co election office, and the timing of those events, has created the appearance of suspicious behavior."
Actually, this conclusion has been artfully created by the Republicans since before the first recount. By continuing to find democrats guilty of intent to steal the election (from the very beginning), the republicans have created the impression that any change would be viewed as cheating.
They were skillful in relegating this presumed cheating to King County--though they have had the same results and procedures in counties with Rossi leads (where Rossi's lead grows in every recount as well).
This is a victory for the Republican PR effort -- call an act cheating before it happens -- and when it happens, call it as an example of what's been previously alleged (carefully leaving out any reference to similar activities in Rossi counties).
In the end, again, it's not about right/wrong, it's about getting my guy elected at any cost (republican or democrat).
12. Poor tom, so disinfranchised. I have personally spoken with people who I KNOW voted for Gregoire, and now regret it. This has nothing to do with having a good PR team. If only it was only that... Instead we actually have one group trying to steal an election and the other group attempting to salvage as much of the people's will as they can. Call it what YOU want, but I will always call the truth as it is, not just how I SEE it.
13. P.S. I know these people voted for Gregoire because they are Democrat faithful. They never vote for a Republican. They are just dissappointed in their party and are afraid for two years from now.
14. Tom, You've missed the point that is disappointing to many with Gregoire's handling of this whole event: she is not showing leadership, she "appears to be" trampling on the public to obtian the result she wants.
What she, Berendt and the rest do not realize is the risk they are taking with the future of the demo party in this state. Guarantee yourself that these King County ballots will all be recounted by the press or whoever in 2005 no matter who prevails in court, recounts, finds more ballots etc. over the next few weeks. The risk is in the ooutcome of that.
15. The Republicans may indeed be engaging in some "artful PR", but I worry that something much creepier is happening on the other side. (Forgive me if this sounds a bit too paranoid, but I have to air this theory somewhere.)
If I were a Democrat responsible for "getting my guy elected at any cost", here's the approach I'd take after losing the initial count by such a small margin:
1) See what legitimate extra ballots turned up during the first recount, but put a bunch of them away for "safekeeping". Instead, get the most questionable stuff over with, e.g. "enhancing" ballots with random scratches on them, contacting voters who didn't follow the rules properly.
2) Whether "my guy" wins or loses the first recount (losing is actually preferable), we've now got a bunch of votes moved into our column, even though they might not really belong there.
3) Harp on about counting every vote. Demand a second recount. During that recount, find those ballots we tucked away for later during the first recount. These are the ones that are going to push "our guy" over the finish line, and on closer inspection they'll seem very legitimate. The public's short-term memory won't stretch back to all the funny goings-on in the first recount, and when Republicans start complaining about these seeming technicalities, they'll look like the grinches.
Of course, if I was a Republican responsible for "getting my guy elected at any cost", I guess I'd do the same thing. However, I wouldn't have an enormous monolithic group of ballots being administered by people loyal to my party...
16. WRITE THIS ONE DOWN IN INK----
If Gregoire takes this recount...this State will be tied up in Initiatives until she is gone. Initiatives are the great equalizer. I live in a small, big-time Democrat town...even here there are plenty of Gregoire voters that are plenty angry with how she and the D's have handled this. Eyman must be lickin' his chops!!! Anything Gregoire is for or against.....watch for petitions.
17. Cynical,
We won't have initiative drives led by Tim Eyman. Eyman is a non-factor after this election. We MAY have a recall drive, which would take an enormous amount of work. After gathering 650,000-700,000 signatures, we would have to launch another campaign for Dino. I am fully confident he would win. However, I'm sure we would all like to avoid that.
18. yes...exactly...if this is what the Democrat party wants, its going to get it....
we need to pass an initiative that makes it mandatory to have a state approved ID for voting...that is, a true citizen voting...
we need to pass an initiative that absentee ballots must be in the election dept at least one day prior to the election, or handed in THAT night..
we must not allow provisional ballots to hamper our elections....people must be held accountable for their vote, and that requires some forethought and some planning to get yourself registered, and then vote...
let them just try to force any income tax on us...just let them...
just let them increase any of our taxes....just let them..
Tim Eiyman is going to be busy, and I think there will be many , many who will come to his aid....
19. My guess is the Dems feel that Bush was appointed President in the same fashion...so why not go for it as Gov in 2004? Some court will ultimately decide if she "wins" the hand recount....Rossi and the Rs will undoubtedly sue...if it goes to the US Supremes, they will invoke Bush-Gore. End of story.
Diablo: Of course that's how you see it. And if Rossi were behind 42 votes, you'd be pushing the line to count every vote. And the dems would say don't change the rules. And that's how you'd see it. I know, you would say you woulnd't. You would suggest Rossi concede. To his credit, Rossi himself didn't say he'd do anything different than Gregoire if the roles were reveresed.
The initiative thing is REALLY scary. Government by intiaitive is impotent. It's the opposite of a republic as envisioned by our forefathers. It's impossible for initiative writers to deal with the entire picture -- dealing with only a bit (like "PAY LESS TAXES") is easy but damaging in the sense of the whole picture.
Zip/Mitsu: I am disillusioned. Have been for awhile. Gregoire has indeed done herself a disservice, it's true. If she ends up being governor, 1/2 the state will conider her role illegitimate. With good reason.
Our system stinks. The real answer is ditch the recounts and do a runoff of the top two. Only allow votes for these two...and make really easy circles.
20. Listen up--
A lot of "errors", intentional or not, can be caught by comparing the canvassing reports (showing results by precindts) from the 1st 2 counts with the manual recount. I did this in Jefferson County. Gregoire +8 Rossi +6...all were explained by previous over- and under-votes that the machine didn't pick up on 1 or both of the prior recounts.
HOWEVER--I did catch one error by comparing the manual count with the prior 1 machine counts. In this precindt, Gregoire gained 1 and Rossi lost 1. No over or under-votes changed! The Auditor responsibly went back to this precindt. THE ONLY EXPLANATION WAS THAT A ROSSI VOTE WENT INTO THE GREGOIRE PILE WHEN STAFF WAS SORTING. Sure enough, they vote that Rossi vote in the Gregoire pile in 30 seconds.
The R's MUST take the time to reconcile prior machine counts with the hand count IN EVERY PRECINDT. All differences must be explained by over and under-votes (which King Co. closely evaluated at the machine recount). In theory, there was no way there would be a big change in King Co. Adding an additional 561 votes should be the only additional Ballots Counted. Everyone should insist that each precindt be reconciled. IF someone has cheated on a large scale, it will show. In fact, even 1 sorting error should appear in this reconciliation process. Frankly, King Co. ought to be doing this before they certify. Will they???? Not if Gregoire is ahead. WATCH!
21. tom,
To my credit, I very honestly can't say what I would do if I was in Gregoire's team's place, but most likely the exact same thing. The fact still remains that I'm not in their place and they aren't in ours. Hypetheticals are always fun; What if the Hawks had called for a review of that Cowboys touchdown; what if I won the Lotto; what if Chris Gregoire was in the lead and Dino was down? It won't get us anywhere, so please stop that rhetoric. Yes, we probably would fight hard to win, during the campaign, and would fight hard to make sure a Gregoire win was legitimate. But we wouldn't, I hope we wouldn't, go into a recount trying to figure out a way to swing it in Dino's favor while marginalizing the voters. Gregoire knew it was possible to swing it her way when they called for the hand recount; she said so in her statement.
22. If it is not close the democrats can't cheat. this is a close election. therefore the democrats will cheat and are cheating. absolute power corrupts and this is what is happenig within the the democratic power structure. the democratic power structure believes they are entitled to power at the cost of denying the voters decisions. simple tyranny exercised through legal manuvers, lawers, and judges. king country democrats are the fever swamp of the leftist withing the this country.
23. How can I find out if my vote counted? I live in eastern King County and I am concerned that the Post Office did not postmark my ballot in time. Also how can my nephew find out if his overseas ballot was counted?
24. Dear ray said "If it is not close the democrats can't cheat. this is a close election. therefore the democrats will cheat and are cheating. absolute power corrupts and this is what is happenig within the the democratic power structure. the democratic power structure believes they are entitled to power at the cost of denying the voters decisions. simple tyranny exercised through legal manuvers, lawers, and judges. king country democrats are the fever swamp of the leftist withing the this country." I am absolutely that the Republicans have never nor would ever cheat. Am I right?
25. Oh my dearest ray. I am aghast. Look what just came over the press. Irt mus be a lie. I mean your holier than all grand ole party could not be involved in this! Must be those damn liberals again stirring up trouble. LMAO "If it is not close the democrats can't cheat. this is a close election. therefore the democrats will cheat and are cheating. absolute power corrupts and this is what is happenig within the the democratic power structure. the democratic power structure believes they are entitled to power at the cost of denying the voters decisions. simple tyranny exercised through legal manuvers, lawers, and judges. king country democrats are the fever swamp of the leftist withing the this country." Read it and weep ( or should I say read it and make your spin so the Deomcrats are the trouble makers and caused this to happen)
26. You know, given the extra-long hours people are working, the incredible pressure to get it done fast, and the various other things I have heard about the mis-managing of the King County recount, it sure seems to me like my vote is receiving less protection than votes in other counties, where such pressures are not an issue.
Of course, my vote received extra protection in the first recount, since they were going through and "enhancing" ballots, unlike many other counties...
You know, isn't the first count the only one that actually gave everyone's vote equal protection?
If these recounts somehow reverse the outcome, I forsee such arguments being used in court. Of course, I just wish we could hold a new election, a runoff between Gregoire and the winner. That seems to me like it would be a lot easier than all this recount crap.
27. I would love to see transparency in this process. For instance, every ballot that reaches the canvasing board is scanned and put on line for everyone to see. Let everyone know what the canvasing board is deciding.
If these are online somewhere, someone please post a link...
28. Let's keep voting and voting and counting and counting until Gregoire wins.
Then it's over.
That's only fair. Democrats deserve to win this election so they don't feel bad. And I understand some liberals are offended that Gregoire is currently not winning - and you can't have an honest election if someone's offended.
29. Love this blog.
Since it appears that King County has "found" enough ballots to put Gregoire over the top, I think it's important to not succumb to the same self-defeating rage the Dems did in Florida. The Dems were counting on electorate anger over Bush's "stolen" 2000 victory to throw out Jeb Bush and assure a Dem victory in Florida in 2004. We all know how well that worked.
Republicans cannot allow themselves to be seen as bitter over this defeat. No court battles, no recall, no stupid "She's not my governor" bumper stickers. Put forth a positive and optimistic agenda for the state. Bitterness and anger doesn't sway the electorate.
I've never volunteered for the GOP before, but I will now. I want to make sure the next election isn't this close.
30. The silver lining in all this is that the next election will be a major advance for Republicans (if not conservatives) in this state. No doubt Rossi would be the candidate, and Olympia will likely become a Republican town.
I'm not convinced Washington has the stones to pursue a successful recall. Even given the will, Washington law makes it a lot harder than California law, from what I understand. I'd work for it, and throw all my effort into it, but there really isn't much hope there.
31. my previous post should have stated: James Tobin, 44, was charged with conspiracy to commit telephone harassment and aiding and abett*ng. He could get up to five years in prison if convicted; his trial begins Feb. 1.
Two other Republicans have pleaded guilty in the phone-jamming operation and are scheduled to be sentenced in February and March.
In 2002, six phone lines run by the Democrats and the Manchester firefighters union were tied up for 1 1/2 hours by 800 computer-generated hang-up calls. Federal prosecutors said Tobin and other Republicans had hired a company to make the calls to disrupt the organizations' get-out-the-vote efforts.
Among the races affected by the jamming was the Senate contest between Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Rep. John E. Sununu. Sununu won by about 20,000 votes.
Of course this has to be a conspiracy of the liberal press and those damn blue ne. states LMAO
32. Well, here's a list of King County voters whose ballots were tossed...
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/voters14ww.html
33. I have the impression that King county was not the only county that enhanced ballots for the machine recount. Is information about other counties enhancing ballots at that time available somewhere?
34. I just talked with someone who saw his name in the paper as one that was not counted. He said that there was an internal transfer of systems -- and his signature, on the old system, was for some reason not transferred to the new system. So they had no signature on file to compare his signature to. Of course he had no idea.
Does this qualify as cheating?
35. Court rules against Dems:
http://www.courts.wa.gov/newsinfo/?fa=newsinfo.order_041214
36. Can't be! After all, we know from this website that the left leaning court is just a tool to help the democrats steal this election?
What went wrong?
37. It won't matter. Gregoire will still win with the "newly discovered" ballots. If those don't give her enough votes, the Demos will find another way. Adios Dino!
38. I just talked with someone who saw his name in the paper as one that was not counted. He said that there was an internal transfer of systems -- and his signature, on the old system, was for some reason not transferred to the new system. So they had no signature on file to compare his signature to. Of course he had no idea.
This is definitely incompetence at minimum...and when the mistakes add up in one direction, I get suspicious. No rational person should have any confidence in King County Elections Dept...especially when one considers this year is just the latest in a string of fusterclucks.
39. Now that we are digging into all the dirty nooks and crannies of the King County Elections Dept., shouldn't we consider something better for the county, even statewide? I just don't trust that all registered voters are legitimate or haven't been duplicated across counties or states. There should be a way for vetting legal voters by requiring current signatures that actually match a drivers license or state id card. And couldn't that list be checked for residency requirements, felony convictions, citizenship verification, etc. ?
Maybe the privacy advocates will get their skivies in a twist, but we need a national or state ID card that authenticates citizenship, declared residence, etc. so we can clearly validate and manage the millions of votes cast in this state. If we truly want to count every vote accurately, we need a system that will support that goal.
That system is not in place today. Until then, we must accept some level of human error, whether it's by staffers not validating signatures or voters filling out their ballots wrong. I may not like it, but that's the way it is today. So, for the sytem to be as consistant as possible, we must follow the law and procedures currently in place for elections.
Procedural changes in the King County Elections Dept. allowing additional votes to be counted are simply more mistakes. Add these to several other mistakes in recent years and you will come to the conclusion that the King County Election Dept. is in need of some repair. Each new discovery of votes in King County is like picking a scab that we know we shouldn't be touching. The scar keeps getting worse and I hope Gregoire has a big enough bandage to fix voter confidence and the 1.8 billion state budget deficit Locke leaves behind.