December 17, 2004
Spokane

Spokane County just reported.

A net gain of +7 for Rossi, leaving him with a total +8 gain in the recounted counties to a net lead of 154,759.

Gregoire won King County in the machine recount with a lead of 154,709.

She would need to increase her lead in King County by 50 votes in order to win.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at December 17, 2004 04:49 PM | Email This
Comments
1. I do not think Gregoire will need these disputed ballots. The normal King County results likely will be enough to put her over.

Posted by: Alcon on December 17, 2004 04:51 PM
2. Im sure I dont want to know, and Im sure if I had to I could figure it out, but Im guessing its already been done.................whats the probability (even if we assume Ron Sims didnt vote 51 times) of that happening?

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 04:52 PM
3. Hard to know without knowing how many ballots will be reported. It has varied by county so far.

Posted by: Alcon on December 17, 2004 04:54 PM
4. I was thinking maybe Stefan had some kinda formulae :)

Its almost certainly a moot point anyway. I said, on the 3rd, there was no way this would stand..............I hate being right!

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 04:57 PM
5. Yep. I have to agree - There is no way the Dem's would of put up the million plus for the recount unless they knew it was transferable to the taxpayers.

Posted by: Mike on December 17, 2004 05:07 PM
6. I still think Dino has lost. Watch for some weird totals from King County in the next little while. I wish KC had finished the count before the judge ruled - now there is just more time to tweak the votes....

Posted by: Me on December 17, 2004 05:08 PM
7. I find the extra votes suspicious, but I have no reason to believe the votes currently being counted are false.

Does anyone else?

Posted by: Alcon on December 17, 2004 05:17 PM
8. Alcon,
I'd like to feel that way too. You'd be correct in asserting that there really is no PROOF that the ballots being counted are not legit. Unfortunatley, King County has given any rational person reason to have doubts. Serious doubts.....

Do I think that Dean Logan is counting Rossi votes and manufacturing 2 for Gregoire? No, although it kind of feels like it. Do I think that they went back and mined for D votes, probably ignoring any R votes they might have "found". Maybe the rays are getting through my tin-foil hat, but I could believe that.

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 05:24 PM
9. Let's hope the outcome is clear without further legal battles.

Posted by: tom on December 17, 2004 05:25 PM
10. Alcon:

False, or enhanced? After seeing the 'Christine Rossi' story, I have every reason to believe the King County results will be tainted in one way or another.

Posted by: Larry on December 17, 2004 05:25 PM
11. I suspect this will be the only time I ever say this, and it pains me............I agree with tom.

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 05:27 PM
12. When the Supremes rule against re-canvassing next week, that might invalidate some of the votes from other counties as well?

Posted by: Jeff B. on December 17, 2004 05:29 PM
13. Looks to me like a Dino win by 63 votes. My understanding is that the King County regular recount has already been done with a +14 Rossi vote result. The reason that Gregoire didn't get the increase you'd expect is because they *already did the manual recount* at the time of the second recount, so they have nothing left over for the third. Thus, the "new-found" 723 ballots are their last chance, and it looks like the WSC is going to disallow those. So thoughts of the GOP spending 2 righteous years in the wilderness isn't gonna happen. Anyway, this is my reading, FWIW.

Posted by: Cincinnatus on December 17, 2004 05:29 PM
14. Alcon,

Good question but at the wrong place. Most folks here just want Dino to be declared the winner. It it means ignoring the votes of a few hundred voters who followed all the rules and voted, so be it.

We are going through a legally allowed manual recount. If legally cast, but previously uncounted, votes found in this process are discarded to help Dino win this race, I wonder why we even bothered with an election? The reason you have a manual recount is because one of the candidates believes votes weren't counted. If mistakes are found and fixed, why is that a problem? Republicans are OK with a recount as long as Dino is declared the winner -- actual vote count be damned.

Posted by: bt on December 17, 2004 05:30 PM
15. Shane, I'm humbled.

Posted by: tom on December 17, 2004 05:31 PM
16. Ok you numbers guys! Is Cincinnatus right?

Just to screw things up, if he/she is, are there still likely potential court challenges?

Is it likely the D's would contest and take it to the legislature?

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 05:33 PM
17. As you should be tom :)

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 05:34 PM
18. My compliments to the judge. It took a lot of guts to make that ruling. We still have the same problem though, even if the Supreme Court backs her up. All the other counties are in, and King County knows how many votes they have to manufacture in order to install Queen Christine. As a Seattle native now living in the People's Republic of Hawai`i, it makes me wonder how we ever got those 12 great years of Dan Evans.

Ken

Posted by: Ken Hupp on December 17, 2004 05:38 PM
19. Cincinatus,

What is your source for the +14 number?

I suspected that the Democrats knew they had lost
without the 753 added ballots when they decided
to reexamine the overvote. It was their fallback
position if the Republican won an injunction
against counting those ballots.

Does your source know how many overvotes they
are reconsidering, and what are the chances they
"mine" a net pick-up of 65 votes from them?

Posted by: Bob on December 17, 2004 05:40 PM
20. The problem here is not the manual recount. It is a provision of state law and therefore legitimate. However, King County's "discovery" of extra ballots on nine separate occasions is more than enough to imply some dark alley maneuvering or dare I say it: FRAUD. I want results that represent the true intent of voters in this state. I do not think that this is possible now. We have relied on the subjectivity of humans and partisan canvassing boards that are deciding how we the citizenry meant to vote. Did anyone ever think that it would come to this? It is time for an orange revolution seeking transparency, truth and a new, fair election that will hopefully avoid the chicanery and absolute incompetence that we have witnessed from election boards across this state.

Posted by: Nathan on December 17, 2004 05:42 PM
21. Cincinatus is making you think that King did a manual on the 2nd recount, ha, that's kinda funny.

Guess we get to see Gregoire win on the manual, and that the Repugs get to keep legal votes from counting.

A double win to me.

Posted by: Sha on December 17, 2004 05:46 PM
22. I was up in Tulwila yesterday. They were definitely mining the overvote. However, it's much harder for the overvote to be mined. We've all heard about the "Christine Rossi" ballot, but that is an exception. All the overvotes I saw were clearly for one candidate or the other, with just a small dot in another bubble. Most likely they will just throw it out, or count it for the obvious filled in bubble. But you never no the extent of their attempts to create the circumstances for a Gregoire win.

Would not surprise me at all if they threw out all Rossi overvotes and kept the one's for Gregoire. It's a 2-1 partisan canvassing board, so anything is game.

One would hope the Supreme Court ruling would protect against this kind of recanvassing.

It was amazing to show up and find out that they had changed the overvote counting rules mid hand recount. Even the most strident Dems have no defense for this one. Truly a play to influence the result for Gregoire. No shame at all, they made this change in broad daylight for all to see.

Posted by: Jeff B. on December 17, 2004 05:49 PM
23. Ah, the brainless 'Sha' is back! He or she likes to snipe but not to answer any difficult questions or think outside of his or her little world.

King County DID do a manual recount during the second recount. They 'enhanced' ballots while the rest of the counties merely counted again. That is why this recount result should not differ much - except for all those 'found' ballots along the way.

Posted by: Larry on December 17, 2004 05:51 PM
24. Nathan,

That's why the Supremes will rule next week to restore the rule of law to the counting process.

Dems, say it over and over again to yourselves until you get it:

A recount is not a recanvass.
A recount is not a recanvass.
A recount is not a recanvass.

Posted by: Jeff B. on December 17, 2004 05:54 PM
25. "The reason you have a manual recount is because one of the candidates believes votes weren't counted."

No, that isn't why you have a manual recount. The reason for having a manual recount is that one of the candidates believes that the existing ballots were *miscounted*. But elections officials can only recount the original ballots, not keep finding new ones to count.

And don't give me that c**p about 'counting every vote.' I'm getting sick of it.

Now, where is my orange scarf? And when is the next rally???

Posted by: Mac on December 17, 2004 05:55 PM
26. Nathan,
You make a couple of great points. Certainly, when someone is charged with making a subjective decision, their bias will influence that.

Perhaps someone can cure my ignorance, but why is there 3 members on the Canvassing board as opposed to 4 (or whatever)? Seems to me that just begs for partisanship.

Now, lets all step back for a moment. Im going to pretend that I am a far-left Deanic Demo (it hurts, but I'll take one for the team). After NINE discoveries, even I have to wonder.....and even if there were 9 honest mistakes, the appearance is one of impropriety. ....... Oh and FLORIDA!!!OHIO!!!!HALLIBURTON!!!!!!!YEAAARRRRGGGHHH!!!!!!!!!
(I am still pretending to be a Donk)

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 05:56 PM
27. bt:

Contrary to what you think, everyone here just wants the RULES TO BE FOLLOWED.

If votes were rejected improperly earlier on, or have just been 'found' this week, then the people responsible in the King County Elections Commission should be summarily FIRED and escorted out of the building by security.

You should be angry at those incompetent workers in K.C.E.C. including, but not limited to, Ron Sims, just as we are. How did votes vanish on election day and turn up yesterday? Where is the inventory control? Aren't you afraid of this happening in the future, especially if the evil Republicans are in power?

Sheesh, find a brain and get a life.

Posted by: Larry on December 17, 2004 05:57 PM
28. If legally cast, but previously uncounted, votes found in this process are discarded to help Dino win this race, I wonder why we even bothered with an election?

You should maybe take that up with Logan and Sims.

Posted by: South County on December 17, 2004 05:57 PM
29. Again, for the slow-witted Ukrainians...

I had ONE bottle of ketchup in my fridge this morning. I bought ANOTHER bottle of ketchup this evening and put it in my fridge.

Now...

How many bottles of ketchup were in my fridge this morning?

Posted by: Dan on December 17, 2004 06:41 PM
30. Hey, I don't get Stefan's number of +50 for Gregoire out of King County: isn't Rossi up on the order of 70-80 votes right now?...

Posted by: IJB on December 17, 2004 06:45 PM
31. IJB - No - Rossi lost votes in Spokane and Pierce so after all this hoopla he gained 1 vote - that added to the 49 he was ahead is 50. The reason the KC has been "Discovering" votes is because they gleaned every possible vote for Gregoire during the first recount (you recall that KC enhanced ballots to beat the band). The second point is this morning the KC canvassing board decided to CHANGE THE RULES and have overvotes that were questionable go to them. We can only assume that is because they didn't like the way this was going. The canvassing board of 3 has 2 dems and 1 rep. They now are getting very desparate. This afternoon at 5:30 with 3/4 of the KC votes counted so far, Rossi was ahead by 15.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 06:52 PM
32. Find your ORANGE! John Carlson announced this afternoon that there's going to be a rally in Olympia on Tuesday, December 21, at 4 p.m. It's at the State Capital...not sure the exact location on campus though. Probably on kvi's website.

They're going to have orange signs and are asking everyone to wear orange. I think it's great!

Also, he mentioned that this is not a Dino rally...it's just about making our voices heard and asking for the rules to be followed. Although...I understand that it's mostly the Dino supporters who actually want the rules. :-)

Posted by: megs on December 17, 2004 07:21 PM
33. CP - please clarify that last remark - "...with 3/4 of the KC votes counted so far, Rossi was ahead by 15."

Do you mean 15 more in KC than the earlier count? or a total of 15 (50 (Rossi current lead) minue 35 (new votes for X-ine) = ahead 15? or some other math computation I have missed?

Help - please be more explicit!

Posted by: Mac on December 17, 2004 07:25 PM
34. Hi Mac - King County has continued to count during all of this and as of 5:30 Rossi was 15 NET ahead of sweet Christine. Cooler heads that are being watched more carefully believe me aren't as free to be so cavalier. So with just 1/4 KC votes yet to count, the trend is great! Plan to be in Olympia on Tuesday for the rally (wear orange).

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 07:31 PM
35. I need to clarify that, sorry. The net 15 to Rossi is in King County. Has nothing to do with the +50 he is now leading by in the rest of the state.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 07:38 PM
36. Interesting to note that of Gregoire's seven counties, all in but King, only Grays Harbor has helped Gregoire in the manual recount. The others all helped Rossi either by showing no change (Pacific and San Juan) or increasing Rossi's percentage (Jefferson, Thurston, Whatcom).

Rossi's problem in the manual recount has been almost exclusively in Rossi counties (Adams, Benton, Clallam, Clark, Douglas, Franklin, Island, Pierce, Snohomish, Wahkiakum, Whitman and Yakima).

Favorable harbinger for Rossi in King?

Posted by: John Milem on December 17, 2004 07:45 PM
37. I hope favorable harbinger of Rossi in King. It only makes sense that they were TRYING so hard to give it to Christine the first time around that the "questionable" ENHANCED ballots would be questioned by more requestioned by more sane counters. If they weren't worried, the "DISCOVERED" ballots would never have been found. In reality, Rossi should net more votes in King County. Do you agree?

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 07:52 PM
38. It's certainly a reasonable thought. I'm mostly impressed with how unpredictably random these additional votes have been.

Posted by: John Milem on December 17, 2004 07:57 PM
39. Assuming that the Supreme court agrees with the Locke-appointed Superior Court Judge and no more "discovered" ballots are entered, the change of rules by the canvassing board still bothers me. Again the RULES have been changed I assume that is being carefully monitored, and case by case it could be protested. We are down to so few that will make the difference. - - - - - If we did yet another recount, it would all probably change yet again.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 08:11 PM
40. Thanks, CP! I may just do that! I'm scrounging thru my wardrobe right now looking for that scarf!

Posted by: Mac on December 17, 2004 08:22 PM
41. watching all this from atlanta, georgia. I think rossi will take this. They already did there manual recount.

Posted by: eric on December 17, 2004 08:31 PM
42. Thanks for the support, Eric. Aren't we putting on quite a show? It will be most interesting to see what the dems come up with next. The only mystery is what - but it will be something fun I'm sure.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 08:39 PM
43. Looks grim for the GOP, I'd say. I was surprised at the Pierce Co. results. They normally run things pretty tightly down there.

It stands to reason that if CG can get +31 out of Pierce (and +44 out of Snohomish), she can easily get +51 out of the much larger, and much more corrupt, King Co.

And that's without the disputed 700+ ballots.

Posted by: Kevin S on December 17, 2004 08:39 PM
44. the democrat party is happy only when they win...that's why there's all this nashing of teeth and all the funny ballot counting...

its unconscienable.....absolutely unconscienable that the Democrat party would stoop to forcing the counting of unsigned ballots after they went door to door for CG...( count all the votes ....Hah!)...then they found a few more thousands and then they found more still and then they conjured up some from a "locked" area that they just decided to check ( I wonder if they check at every election or is it just this one) and then they "enhance" ballots for their candidate and then they find misplaced ballots that still need verification, right, and now they're changing the ballot counting rules....mid-stream!!!!

it looks like fraud and smells like fraud, and even if its totally legit, they have made a mockery of this election, and they will never ever be trusted again...

my question again is....how many elections have they found ballots all over the place and how many elections have they changed the rules and how many elections have they solicited Democrat votes and ignored GOP votes?

and can any Democrat swear to God that any military guy that wanted to vote got his or her ballot in a timely manner, or was that just another convienient mistake?

Posted by: lee on December 17, 2004 08:42 PM
45. Yeah, Kevin, but if CP is right and Rossi is up 15 in the first 3/4 King County's recount, then she'd have to pick up 65 additional votes in the final 1/4 of the ballots being counted - right?

Posted by: Mac on December 17, 2004 08:43 PM
46. Right Mac. Do you see that happening? I don't. Maybe I'm just naive but the GOP has learned a thing or 2 in recent years. Do you really think Cantwell won fair and square in 2000, NO. This stuff has been going on for years.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 08:49 PM
47. When you say Rossi is up by 15 votes with 3/4 of King County recounted does this mean:

A. 3/4 of all the total ballots have been recounted

B. 3/4 of all the polling precincts have been recounted, and none of the absentee precincts have been recounted

C. 3/4 of all the polling precincts have been recount, and 3/4 of the absentee precincts have been recounted

If the correct answer is B, then Gregoire is going to lose votes big time in King County by the time the recount is complete.

Posted by: Richard Pope on December 17, 2004 08:52 PM
48. Richard to be perfectly honest I think it's A, according to the poll watchers I've talked to. I didn't hear was the break down was.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 08:57 PM
49. Democrats have no shame. That's why they're Democrats in the first place.

Posted by: FedUpWithThis on December 17, 2004 09:00 PM
50. Note regarding the profanity laced blog. Is it just me, or do others get the feeling that if a Conservative blog relied on a lot of profanity for its color, it would be severely discredited, pronounced immature, written off, etc.

However, when it happens on a Lberal blog, it's called "Best Activist, Hell Raising" etc. and thought of as appropriate.

We see the same thing on the Wonkette nationally. I'm not against a beautiful woman, but blatant immature use of sex and profanity should be placing these blogs a notch down the credibility scale in the eyes of the MSM, etc. and instead it's looked at as spunky, creative, part of the vocal mainstream that needs to speak out against the too conservative, etc.

My father in law always says that swearing is for those who can't think of a better word. We know Goldy is a talented writer and he CAN think of a better word, so why doesn't he?

Posted by: Jeff B. on December 17, 2004 09:15 PM
51. We get are fun just by watching the dems. That's raunchy enough for moi! Plus once in a while we might even learn something.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 09:21 PM
52. Whoops - I meant OUR fun! But then I'm an inarticulate conservative so what do you expect!

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 09:22 PM
53. I actually think it is B, since I heard the 15 vote gain figure a couple of days ago. It was in a Thu 12/16/04 a.m. press release by Chris Vance. They couldn't have been finished with 3/4 of all ballots by then. They counted polling place ballots first, since they were the easiest to sort into precincts. There are also a lot more absentees than polling place ballots. This 15 vote gain is what prompted an order to recount once again any precinct with as much as one vote change.

I will make a bold prediction -- the manual recount will end up with at least a 500 ballot reduction in total ballot count in King County (assuming no additional ballots are added). This reduction could possibly be more than 1000 ballots.

This problem derives from the discrepancies in precinct ballot counts in King County. Hundreds of precincts had changes, generally of one or two votes, either up or down, from the original count to the machine recount. This netted out to a 336 ballot increase -- from 898,238 to 898,574. But there were 147 plusses and 114 minusses in polling place ballots, and 900 or so plusses and 700 or so minusses in absentee ballots. Also a lot of change in provisionals, although this could have come from ballots not counted in the original count.

There are too many of these changes to be explained by fraud. It would be ridiculous to steal 114 polling place ballots from certain precincts and add 147 polling place ballots to other precincts. If fraud was at play, then a Rossi ballot would be stolen in a given precinct and replaced with a Gregoire ballot in that same precinct. That would have been more effective, and less detectable, since there would be no change in the precinct's ballot count.

There are only two possible explanations: (1) the Accuvote machines frequently miss ballots than are scanned through them entirely or (2) the Accuvote machines sometimes count a ballot twice for some reason. The plus or minus change from the original count to the machine recount would depend upon whether the particular error was committed in the first count or the second count. If the same error occurred in both counts, then that precinct would not show any change.

If all these errors were caused by machine undercounts of ballots, then at least 1000 ballots were not counted the first time and at least 800 ballots were not counted the second time. In that event, the manual recount will have at least 800 ballots magically appear out of nowhere (from the existing ballot collection) and Rossi will be sunk.

If all these errors were caused by machine double counts of ballots, then at least 800 ballots were double counted the first time and at least 1000 ballots were double counted the second time. In that event, the manual recount will have at least 1000 ballots magically disappear into nothingness(from the existing ballot collection) and Rossi will win convincingly -- perhaps by over 200 votes.

Either way, the defeated side will point to the magical changes in the ballot count as evidence of fraud or serious irregularity, and the election will be challenged. A Gregoire win will seem more fraudulent than a Rossi win under such circumstances, since the Democrats firmly control King County.

Posted by: Richard Pope on December 17, 2004 09:28 PM
54. I've wondered about that as well. On the democratic underground, it's like listening to a gang of street kids - you go to Free Republic and they are expected to communicate like grown ups...and we all heard the stories when the white house changed hands...

Classless act all the way around...why would anybody ever wanna be a dem?

Posted by: Julie on December 17, 2004 09:33 PM
55. Richard - you must think it will be a Rossi win by your comment and also believing the answer is B. Right? I do - that's why all the hoopla over "adding" ballots.

Posted by: CP on December 17, 2004 09:40 PM
56. OK........Im not that bright. Can someone give me the dummies guide to how Gov. Rossi will keep his office? Is the assertion that enough of the King recount is complete and going our way that the 50 votes are insurmountable for the queen?

Posted by: Shane on December 17, 2004 09:50 PM
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