August 26, 2005
Majorities matter (go figure)

A couple months ago, I took a lot of flack in the comments for making the wild claim that, somehow, members of the majority party would have an easier time protecting military bases in their constituency from closure than those in the minority party. As evidence, my detractors pointed out that John Thune, freshman Senator from South Dakota and a hero in the GOP for having defeated Tom Daschle, was unable to keep Ellsworth Air Force base in South Dakota from closing.

Today, I present clear evidence in favor of my assertion: Thune has saved Ellsworth. Apparently being represented by the party in the majority has some advantages.

Michael Barone points out other instances. Of particular note is the case of the New London Naval Submarine base in Connecticut's 2nd District, also pulled off the chopping block. The district is represented by Republican Bob Simmons, and is among the two most pro-Kerry districts to be represented by a Republican congressman.

As I pointed out two months ago, a similar situation would be faced by Doug Roulstone should he defeat incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen in Washington's 2nd District race next fall. The 2nd District, which voted for Kerry, includes both the Everett Naval Station and the Whidbey Island Naval Air Station, and should either of them end up on aclosure list, Roulstone, as a member of the majority party--and as a highly decorated Navy pilot and aircraft carrier captain--will be much better situated to keep them open.

This isn't an issue that is going to convince most people one way or the other--but for those trying to tell the difference between the two (something Larsen has worked hard to make difficult), it's a pretty key difference.

(Of course, a Republican senator wouldn't hurt things, either.)

Cross posted at The Flag of the World.

Posted by Timothy Goddard at August 26, 2005 11:12 PM | Email This
Comments
1. I disagree, Timothy.

The Base Realignment and Closure Commitee reviews the desires of the Pentagon and has the power to make changes, as they did on this one.

It is a bipartisan commitee (I could be wrong on that...I'll research it) and was created to rise above the heavy political/lobbying fray that results from the list that is handed down from the Pentagon on closures/consolidation.

No legislator wants to lose jobs on their watch. But sometimes it has to happen, and the BRAC supposedly applies its final recommendations in as fairly a manner as possible (for DC).

I think it is a stretch to associate the recent BRAC decisions to the party affiliation of the local legislators. Not impossible, but a stretch. Thune lucked out on this one.

Posted by: Shaun on August 27, 2005 07:38 AM
2. Ellsworth was saved once before when Daschle was in power and Clinton was the President, I think!

Two Republican Senators might have gotten a big dig tunnel for Seattle put in the Transportation bill, but alas, Washington is represented by two nut cases Democratic Senators!

Posted by: sgmmac on August 27, 2005 07:48 AM
3. I was wrong. The Base Realignment and Closure Commission is not strictly bitpartisan...6 of the 9 members are recommended by congress (majority party recommends most) and the President has final say.

However, Cannon AFB in Clovis, NM survived the chopping block (temporarily)...Democrat for Governor, as well as the House (split in the Senate).

Posted by: Shaun on August 27, 2005 08:11 AM
4. how about Alaska Hway funds vs Washington.

Geeze thanks a lot for NOTHING Cashwell and Pattycakes.

Posted by: Andy on August 27, 2005 08:15 AM
5. When I lived in Spokane, the talk was always: "We have to re-elect Foley because he will keep Fairchild AFB open"....Well, Foley is long gone, but Fairchild is alive & well.

Posted by: Susu on August 27, 2005 08:19 AM
6. Shaun--
I don't think it's a question of partisanship, but of influence. Members of the majority party simply have more influence, almost by definition. And to say that Thune "lucked out" does a disservice to him. He worked very hard to convince the committee that Ellsworth was worth saving, as if his political future depended on it (because it did). Incidentally, I'm glad they saved Ellsworth--it has the only nuclear missile silo open to the public, and though I've visited the base, I haven't yet had a chance to visit the silo.

As for Tom Foley, Spokane did away with him at exactly the right moment--even if he had been reelected, he would have lost his post as speaker and the influence that came with it in '94 anyway.

Posted by: Timothy on August 27, 2005 09:10 AM
7. As a counter-example, Georgia (2 Republican Senators, majority-Republican House delegation, Republican Governor, and solidly for Bush in both his Presidential runs) lost four facilities. And the King's Bay submarine base in Georgia did not pick up the mission of Groton, CT because the sub base there was not closed -- partially due to an appeal by former President Carter that Groton be retained (and Jimmy's about as 'D' as they come).

Maybe it's more a function of how much effort the majority party feels they need to exert to retain / gain your vote.

Posted by: F451 on August 27, 2005 09:37 AM
8. Susu,
That is funny, I was thinking the same thing when I read Timothy's post. I practically grew up on Fairchild. The only thing Tom Foley really did for Spokane was get tons of money for Comstock Park. Ha.

Posted by: cc on August 27, 2005 09:44 AM
9. Anyone stupid enough to believe Timothy Goddard [since this is the dogshark's page there are probably a lot of you] need to follow the plethora of articals that argue the opposite. Here's one.

Base-closing plan angers Republicans

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20050826/pl_usatoday/baseclosingplanangersrepublicans

Fact is the shrub's favored strategy is p*ssing off everyone.

Posted by: Third Party Voter on August 27, 2005 10:02 AM
10. Yes, Timothy, Thune did lobby as if his political life depended on it.

But that does not explain Clovis or Georgia. I assert that if the BRAC felt it was truly necessary, Ellsworth would have been TOAST no matter who was lobbying against its closure.

That the BRAC saw it Thune's way, I think, is largely coincidental. Look up the BRAC's history of findings (now ten years worth or so). There are plenty of examples one could find that back up both of our arguments. Interesting debate.

Posted by: Shaun on August 27, 2005 10:04 AM
11. "Fact is the shrub's favored strategy is p*ssing off everyone."

That is a ridiculous assertion.

The DoD makes the closure "wish list", the BRAC rules on it (memebership determined by congress with the President's chop), and then sends the recommendations for approval from the President and congress.

It's not "shrub's" favored strategy, whatever you mean by that. It's the DoD's.

Posted by: Shaun on August 27, 2005 10:09 AM
12. Timothy: I've not yet read the WaPo article (will later), but in short: I am not convinced that Thune saved Ellsworth, and that Daschle could not have done so. However, I would absolutely agree that the possibility of this is far greater than zero, and that it is worthy of note. So too did many voters in South Dakota, who voted for the young man from Biola University (my alma mater!) over the Minority Leader.

And similarly might many when they choose to vote for Roulstone.

Posted by: pudge on August 27, 2005 10:12 AM
13. Oh Yes TPV, I'm going to believe everything in a Yahoo news story and take it as the gospel whole truth.

Posted by: cc on August 27, 2005 10:17 AM
14. For that matter cc, I can't think of a circumstance where I would take the "advice" of someone who would intentionally vote for losers....

Posted by: alphabet soup on August 27, 2005 03:50 PM
15. Everyone hates pork barrel spending except for their own. Perhaps that's one reason why an HONEST republican, such as John McCain, has such little chance of ever being elected.

Posted by: bartelby on August 27, 2005 08:45 PM
16. Bartelby,

Calling John McCain "honest" and "Republican" puts you wrong on both counts.

Posted by: ERNurse on August 27, 2005 09:22 PM
17. I might be peeing in someone's canteen, but why are federal jobs so much more important than the rest? They don't carry the pay and benefits of teachers' or lawyers. When the feds leave, does it usher in a regional recession. Is that why everyone worries? Like New Mexico's governor chewing his fingernails.

Posted by: Calvin on August 27, 2005 10:17 PM
18. That seems pretty obvious to me.

It also seems obvious that the reason Seattle can't get much in the way of federal transportation funding is because Seattle thumbs it nose at Bush.

You aren't going to make any friends among those in power in Washington if you kick military recruiters out of high schools, have a silly council that wont make a simple statement supporting our troops, and a mayor that is running around trying to get other mayors to defacto sign the Kyoto treaty.

Of course, the idiots in Seattle actually want to show their mindless defiance. But, there is a price to be paid and that price is that this area is starved of federal funds and will loose military bases.

That will be legacy of this generation of idiots in political power in Seattle and Washington State.

Posted by: BananaLand (aka Iguana) on August 28, 2005 01:26 AM
19. Third party voter,

Anyone stupid enough to suggest with their moniker to proudly squander their elective
franchise as you do is not qualified to comment about politics--or anything else for that matter.

By the way, your mother may not be popular, but that's no way to talk.

Posted by: Amused by liberal morons on August 28, 2005 09:47 AM
20. Say what you will about McCain--but he's easily the most consistent anti-pork presidential candidate. It's really not even close. If federal spending is your main issue, or one of them (it's not one of mine, mind you), then you should seriously consider supporting McCain, even if you disagree with him on other issues.

Posted by: Timothy on August 28, 2005 12:03 PM
21. I am not sure that being in the majority party is the number on factor in their decisions and rightly so. The list should be determined by national security needs first and foremost.

And if being in the majority is the theory for bases being saved, then is it not a corrolary that the minority states would lose bases? I am not aware of any Washington bases being lost (other than Ft Lawton in Magnolia).

Of course, once the list of possible closures has been screened acording to national security concerns, the secondary political concerns kick into high gear.

Honestly though, if they wanted to deal a Democrat a blow, they could close down NS Bremerton and Norm Dicks would be history.

Posted by: pbj on August 28, 2005 12:07 PM
22. I would never vote for John McCain. He doesn't understand the First Amendment.

Posted by: Bostonian on August 28, 2005 02:27 PM
23. Wouldn't it be great if they set up a BRAC-commission for domestic spending programs? Appoint a commission to go through and recommend eliminating all the pork-barrel projects and useless social programs larding up the budgets? Recommend consolidations of duplicative programs?

Yeah, I know, only the military budget can be subjected to fudiciary oversight. Social spending must never be questioned.

Posted by: V the K on August 29, 2005 07:50 AM
24. I would only vote for John McCain as a last resort, and thankfully he doesn't have what it takes to make it that far. Except for a few happenstance conservative (rational) positions he takes from time to time, he has the emotional reliability of a democrat. He is unhinged.

Thankfully, despite what the conspiracy nitwits (including the third party nutbags) believe about trilateral commissions, secret ruling cabals, and single/split issue advocacy, and what liberal democrats believe by studying under Al Gore and Michael Moore, we have ONLY two political parties and they are distinctly different from eachother.

The Republican Party is far and away more likely to recognize the necessity to defend our country, and whatever they are doing now regarding base closures is more likely to help America than hurt us. I trust them because there is no sane alternative, and because most of them demonstrate that they will continue to do the right things despite pathetic crazies like Sheehan. Like it or not, that's our system, and it is the best there is, unless one likes the comfort of security without liberty.

Pork spending is the essence of politics. It has gone on since the inception of the confederacy and it will always exist. Responsible leaders make decisions for many reasons; let’s hope they have our security foremost in mind.

Posted by: Amused by liberals on August 29, 2005 09:49 AM
25. This post shows how republicans think and why the way republicans think is bad for our country. Military base closures should not be made based on political considerations. Yet this poster suggests that it's a good thing that they are and people should vote republican to take advantage of this situation. Give some thought to this. Do we really want decisions about national defense to be based on which party is in office? The practice of making base closure decisions based on political considerations should be condemned not encouraged - regardless of what party you affiliate with or which party is in the majority.

Posted by: Greg on August 29, 2005 10:25 AM
26. It may make a difference, but I don't think the National GOP considers Washington State among the top, oh...49 states of priority to help out. We can thank the likes of Baghdad Jim, Cantwell, and Murray, as well as the majority population of King County and pretty much ALL of Seattle for making WA the most inconsequential state in the union when it comes to national elections. We are not only among the last to vote, but we're so damn PREDICTABLE the outcome of our presidential vote is NEVER in doubt. It's one-party rule around here so it's over before it starts. I'd say the only reason those bases are kept alive is that they are NEEDED. Luckey for us.

Posted by: Scott C on August 29, 2005 10:27 AM
27. Absent any other socially acceptable response to the concept of BRAC, and the continued kowtowing to the powers that be, I offer my thanks that someone thought deeply enough to save the fighter squadron in Portland.

I did NOT want to have to wait an hour for fighter cover in the event that Al Qaeda makes good on it's threat to attack Seattle.

Then the politicking begins. Am sure that Gregoire, Cantwell, Drago, Nickels, Dicks, McDermott and a host of others will attempt to claim credit for it. Majority power or not, at least something resembling the correct thing was done. (A better answer, of course, would have been to move the unit to McChord and reactivate the alert hangars there, allowing Portland to use the ORANG space to grow business to tax out of existence.)

Bones in Ellsworth isn't any more stupid than B-2s in Missouri, and F-16s in New Mexico, I guess.

Posted by: potshot on August 29, 2005 06:03 PM
28. Greg, your comment shows how Democrats think and why Democrats are bad for the country. Namely, you're completely detached from reality, and have poor reading skills.

First off, politics will always come into play in these things because we are a representative democracy. That's just the way it is, for good or ill. Those in congress will always attempt to get the best deal for their constituents, often at the expense of everyone else. After all, "everyone else" doesn't vote them into office. This is a fact of life, like hurricanes. You're not for or against a hurricane, you just deal with it.

Second, when did I say that this was a good thing? Or for that matter, when did I say there were political considerations in the Ellsworth decision, or any other? I never did. Instead, I pointed out that members of the majority are ipso facto more influential, and therefore more likely to convince people of their points of view. In Thune's case, his point of view was that Ellsworth was a vital base that should not be closed.

Personally, I'd like some more influential members of Congress representing me. Greg, would you prefer that our congressional delegation be uninfluential?

Posted by: Timothy on August 29, 2005 06:30 PM
29. Already, the political class in Washington has created a situation in which a gun is pointed at the head of the electorate with the command, "Re-elect, or your roads will crumble and your bridges will fall into disrepair [because sitting members have more seniority that they can use to gather greater pork!]" I do not want a second gun pointed at the electorate with the command, "Elect a member of the majority party or your roads will crumble and your bridges will fall into disrepair[ because a member of the majority can gather greater pork!]"

What needs to be abolished is the process of bribing the electorate with their own money. "Pork" should be distributed in a less political and more objective and rational manner.

If that were to happen, elections would be increasingly decided on the "issues." Or, put another way, our political system would be a more efficient democracy since self-government, and not pork, would be the focus of elections.

We should strive to point out that the system is corrupt, and not cynically try to argue that "our" candidate is better suited to the corrupt system.

Posted by: Bob on August 29, 2005 06:41 PM
30. Provincial pork vs. national interest is an age-old political argument. It seems impossible to argue simultaneously that WA should retain all of "OUR" pork and that the same folks best prepared to do that are also the best representatives of national security. Rs reflexively wrap themselves in the flag and paint everyone who disagrees as terrorist stooges, though that's rather hard to do with someone like John McCain. He consistently argues both for vigorous national defense (hardly a liberal, despite the implications of posters above) and against the pork projects that leech dollars away from that cause. I often disagree w/McCain from the left, I'm sure most here do from the right; but his consistency and integrity are impossible to impugn

Posted by: bartelby on August 29, 2005 07:41 PM
31. Greg,

You say, "Do we really want decisions about national defense to be based on which party is in office?"

When your balloon lands, go audit some middle school civics and American history classes.
You are almost certainly a liberal and totally clueless. There are lots of people out there who "think" just like you. Scary.

Thanks for the object lesson.

Posted by: Amused by liberals on August 29, 2005 08:12 PM
32. Most of the time folks on both sides of the equation bemoan the "do nothing Congress". Personally, I prefer it that way, because most of the time, what I see isn't exactly anything this country couldn't easily do without.

When I hear of Congress coming to a standstill, I immediately think of McSwain, and consider it a relatively good thing. I think of how much damage he's done with his "consistency and integrity" (think CFR), and recognize that America is better off when he spouts his BS, we all nod & say "That's great there JM", and then we go on to more important matters.

All of us have egos, and all of us want to be thought highly of. Many temper that with a sense of selflessness. Not McSwain. I believe that he got knocked in the head too many times. He's a nice guy, but one sandwich shy of a picnic, if you know what I mean.

I will agree with you Bartlebub (to this extent) McSwain is head & shoulders above any democraps I can think of...

How's that for "impugning"?

Posted by: alphabet soup on August 29, 2005 08:36 PM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?