June 06, 2006
USA Today: Growth Management Drives Up Our Housing Prices

Seattle progressives like to wring their hands about the dearth of affordable housing within city limits. Which reflects an unspoken if hypocritical wish to eschew practicing the diversity faith they fervently preach, by buying into a minority Seattle neighborhood with cheaper homes and a relatively high proportion of minority residents (i.e. South Park, Delridge, Rainier Valley, Judkins Park). The "no affordable housing" plaint also betrays an ignorance of the effect - especially pronounced in other Seattle communities - of the basic laws of supply and demand under the heavy hand of regional growth management regulations. This latter factor is emphasized in USA Today's just-published residential real estate market profile of the Seattle market. The Seattle market, as I understand the term to be commonly used, includes major swaths of suburbia. In any case, many residents on the "urban" side of the magic growth boundary - suburbanites most definitely included - understand what the restricted housing supply on the rural side of the line means: it is one more force driving home prices up in "urban"/suburban King County.

"The restrictions on supply by growth management (are) forcing prices artificially up," says Bill Riss, CEO of Coldwell Banker Bain. One answer to building restrictions and rising home prices may be higher-density buildings. "We're in the beginning of a building boom in mid- to high-rise condominiums," Riss says.

This is all very well for empty-nesters, the wealthy, and those who got "in" to the single-family market here by the mid-90s and like myself, can appreciate the vibrancy brought to city neighborhoods when run-down or smaller vacant properties on arterial streets are redeveloped into mixed-use condo projects. But it's not so good now for younger families with children, whose needs represent a less-discussed piece of community sustainability. The result of loosening growth management restrictions here somewhat need not be an inexorable march of densely-packed subdivisions all the way to Ellensburg. A better balance must be found than exists now. One question: Where in Central Puget Sound (King, Pierce, Snohomish counties) would you advise a young family of four to look for a 2,000 square-foot home with a two-car garage for under $225,000, in a town with decent public schools? (I know: sadly that last part rules out Seattle).

Posted by Matt Rosenberg at June 06, 2006 07:40 PM | Email This
Comments
1. You may well be correct in theory, Matt, but I believe that the political reality is that (overstated for emphasis) No one really wants affordable housing.

Posted by: David Sucher on June 6, 2006 08:36 PM
2. Well, running up housing costs such that families with children can't afford to live in the city is one way to fix the school district.

Posted by: Dishman on June 6, 2006 08:54 PM
3. Where in Central Puget Sound (King, Pierce, Snohomish counties) would you advise a young family of four to look for a 2,000 square-foot home with a two-car garage for under $225,000,

The can go to southern Pierce County which is an unregulated sprawl full of strip malls and small developements with cultiscas. Have to drive to everything. Ugly and unworkable. Would you like to trade?

Posted by: Erik on June 6, 2006 09:23 PM
4. The inevitable consequences of GMA are shining like a Lighthouse Beacon.
The funny thing is how many of the LEFTISTS (like Joel Cornholey) have their place in the City AND their place in the Country! Nobody wants to be trapped in the City all the time. You would go crazy. Yet average working middle class people cannot afford to live in Seattle unless Mommy & Daddy have bucks to help them out.
It has turned into the inevitable ELITIST mechanism it was always destined to be.
Seattle's idea of helping the working poor is pretty much giving them the finger and telling them to go away.
The ELITISM will continue to manifest until things literally explode. It's starting alreasy.
Look at things like:
TAXES---massive in Seattle
TRAFFIC---Total disaster
SCHOOLS---Coming apart at the seams.
CRIME---Horrible
DRUGS---Everywhere

These are the unwanted consequences of taking a concept like GMA and carrying it waaaaaaaaay too far.

The next thing that is going to happen is massive foreclosures once interest rates rise another point. An incredible # of buyers in Seattle have gotten into their homes with nearly 100% loans and Adjustable Rate Mortgages.
Look at California.
Foreclosures in the US are up 72% for the 1st Quarter of 2006 vs. 2005!!!!!!!!!
People are trying to convert ARMS to Fixed Rates but for some it is too late.
There will be more lay-offs of High Tech jobs....and Boeing may have some slack in some of the orders they have already booked.

Doom & Gloom???????????????
Reality!! Courtesy of GMA!

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on June 6, 2006 09:38 PM
5. "Young family of four"? Don't you mean four co-habitors? Certainly you don't mean children? We kill our children in America. At least one third of them anyway. But you did mention schools, so maybe you did mean children.

Well, Mexicans have children. And since western civers usually only have one at age 38 or so there really won't be a need for housing them for too much longer, eeh?

As for the tyrannist growth management types, I've never seen a three ring binder or a pdf file that made for good eating.

Posted by: Jericho on June 6, 2006 09:39 PM
6. "The can go to southern Pierce County which is an unregulated sprawl full of strip malls and small developements with cultiscas. Have to drive to everything. Ugly and unworkable."

That is so funny, your looking at the product of the growth management act and thinking that it is a result of unmanaged growth. That law had been in effect for the last 16years. What you see in southern Pierce County is a result of that act.

Posted by: Verne on June 6, 2006 09:43 PM
7. Put Verne in charge. If only he were managing our lives then all would be right in the world.

I'm wondering if we hadn't killed off 50 million kids in the last 33 years how many entry level workers would we now have? About 25 to 30 million - that of course would take care of labor demand driven inflation and the desire by the corporates and elites for illegal laborers.

Posted by: Jericho on June 6, 2006 09:50 PM
8. An immoral people cannot remain free.
T. Jefferson

Posted by: Jericho on June 6, 2006 09:53 PM
9. But that is all right Matt - you just keep on keeping on. No need to look at the man in the mirror. He's no sinner. He don't fall short of God's standard. His good works balance his bad. Wait isn't that Islamic theology? Oh, that ok, you can work your way into heaven Matt. Or maybe you prefer to make you own heaven here on earth. Sure, that's the ticket. You can cheat death.

Scrap Verne, put Matt in charge.

Posted by: Jericho on June 6, 2006 09:56 PM
10. Based on what I'm seeing around here (quick look at johnlscott.com to check on current listings, for $225k you can write off pretty much the whole Eastside (unless you want a condo, and with that you're going to have to add association fees to the monthly payment) and most other places you're looking at a fixer-upper. It looks like most of the listings in that range are showing up in the South Renton/Kent area.

Posted by: Vexorg on June 6, 2006 10:00 PM
11. Where should that family go?

I have no idea, but they should get out of town. The old folks moving into the condos downtown don't like all the noise their kids make anyway.

Posted by: BananaLand on June 6, 2006 10:00 PM
12. Where should that family go?

Who them? Screw'em. F***in breeders!

Posted by: huckleberry on June 6, 2006 10:06 PM
13. Tacoma still has some good value options available.

Not so much the fashionable north end but the south/central Tacoma area has a large number of single family houses that actually have a lot bigger than a postage stamp to go with them. (Platted before growth management...)

Admittedly, the price may be closer to the 250k range now and the public schools are nothing to speak of but there are a good number of private schools in the area to give some reasonable options.

Posted by: jason on June 6, 2006 10:25 PM
14. Where should that family go? How about Ron Sims house? Clearly the rent value of his property exceeds his value usage (Marxist theology).

Viva la revolucion. Be careful what you plan for Ron.

Posted by: Jericho on June 6, 2006 10:28 PM
15. Let me ax ya this...how many times do you have to see a pattern before you recognize it as such? By the time I was out of the sixth grade it was already apparent to me that what the left's stock in trade is is creating a problem, that then they claim moral virtue for recognizing, that then they propose solutions that then expand Government, and then they deride every one who opposes them by labeling them with such labels as 'homophobe' 'bigot' etc. I did not have to be a ‘Pentium IV operating in an Apple IIe world’ to clearly see what was going on and to connect that with what their objective was, what I have a hard time understanding is why more people don’t ‘call them out.’

Posted by: JDH on June 7, 2006 06:26 AM
16. Doesn't GMA stand for the Gross Mismanagement Act?

The problem with Erik and his ilk was when GMA passed they decided to hammer on the counties but forgot the cities. The cities thumbed their elitist noses at the GMA and did business as usual.

Er, Matt, but aren't there subdivision after subdivision from here to E'burg now? I have heard of at least a half dozen people that make the commute from the east to west side everyday.

Posted by: swatter on June 7, 2006 07:28 AM
17. Just 3 points:

1. Immigration laws exist, but the failure of government to correctly implement them has erased our border.

2. Elections laws exist in King County, but the failure of government to uphold them allowed thousands of illegal votes to elect Gregoire.

3. The Growth Management Act has both concurrency requirements and requirements to plan for 20 years of growth, but it is government's failure to implement those requirements that have created the infrastructure crisis we have and the short supply of housing that isn't satisfying demand.

Everyone needs to remember that governments make the laws and they are responsible to implement and enforce them as intended. When a law fails, we must look at whether the problem was the law itself, or the implementation of that law.

I know from personal experience that King County has never supported or responsibly implemented Growth Management, because frankly, King County is owned by the growth industry, and there is literally nothing this government won't do for the right developer.

Don't blame the Growth Management Act for our problems. It is a law created by a government that we know today never had any intention on controlling growth, but that was honestly more interested with managing the growth industry and helping its friends to maximize their profit through subsidies and policies that prevent supply from meeting demand.

BTW- that $225,000 home witn 2,000 square feet and a two-car garage that doesn't exist in Seattle today? Adjusting for inflation, did such a home exist in Seattle in 1980 for $85,000?

Posted by: MJC on June 7, 2006 07:52 AM
18. The way the GMA is implemented is a rational (albeit immoral) policy of this local government. Driving up the values of existing properties translates immediately into more property tax revenues.

Posted by: Coot on June 7, 2006 08:33 AM
19. It's not about growth management.
It's not about affordable housing.
It's not about transportation.
It's not about supporting economic growth.

It's about control of property.

It's about deny the individual fundamental right to own property, land and material.

It's about making the individual dependent upon the state.

It's about the power for the elite.

Until those who believe in elitism, statism and ultimately communism are removed from power expect more of the same.

The fight should be to place those into office that believe in the fundamental rights of the individual. As long as the current minset remains in office and government we will continue on this course.

Posted by: JCM on June 7, 2006 08:36 AM
20. "Would you like to trade?"

Would a family forced to live in an apartment because they can't even begin to afford the increasingly astronomical prices of real estate in the area like to trade for a place they can afford, a place they can call their own.... even in a place like the one you discribed?

Tell me you're kidding, Erik.

Posted by: Hinton (Former Seattleite) on June 7, 2006 08:46 AM
21. Hi, GMA is not the only factor impacting supply. Even if GMA did not exist, the reality is floodplains, cascade foothills or other such terrain is costly at best to build on. It would be interesting to calculate how many acres would be available in East King County if GMA were removed or modified.

The condos going up are definitely not family sized, and do not have family amenities (courtyards with big toys for example).

The reality is, a lot of people benefit from housing price inflation. It is a great source of cash for some, or a windfall to fund one's retirement for others, as long as they're willing to move to someplace cheaper. Also govt benefits: for example, the state real estate excise tax is adding up to a lot of money.

But a lot of people lose. The long-distance commutes, the huge mortgage payments and the risks associated with low or no down payment mortgages, or interest only, or adjustables, may have an impact on a lot of people.

In the Bay Area, where there's a limited supply of land, and also a great cost for long-time owners to sell in that they give up their low low low property tax payments resulting from Prop 13, the result has been very long-distance mega commutes of 90+ minutes, each way, each day. The equivalent here would be Ellensburg, Roslyn, Olympia, Belfair on Hood Canal, Mt Vernon or even Bellingham if your commute is to North King County, not Bellevue or Seattle proper. But real estate in Anacortes, Mt Vernon and Bellingham has all gone up significantly in the past few years also.

Our transportation system is definitely not set up for these types of megacommutes, which probably means more road congestion.

Posted by: Commentator on June 7, 2006 09:55 AM
22. All three of my older children have, or have left the puget sound area -- all three are well education and productive (teacher, nurse, linguist) -- no tattoos, no nose-rings, no drug habit, no STD -- all three cite the same reason -- NOT ABLE TO FORM A MARRIED HOUSEHOLD -- my son also cites a further problem with discrimination towards White males in Seattle --
In 2000 census Seattle showed about 70,000 children -- down from 120,000 a generation before -- with traditional married households at about 13%

Posted by: Lew on June 7, 2006 09:57 AM
23. DON'T FORGET WHO HAS TOUTED THAT "SHE" WAS THE ARCHITECT OF THE GROWTH MANAGEMENT ACT. WHY, IT IS NONE OTHER THAN OUR FABULOUS JUNIOR U.S. SENATOR---MARIA CANTWELL. OF COURSE SHE HAS RECENTLY REINFORCED HER IGNORANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND WITH AN ATTACK ON THE "GOUGERS" IN THE OIL INDUSTRY. JUST LEAVE DEMOCRATS ALONE AND KEEP ELECTING THEM AND YOU TRULY WILL SEND THEM ALL YOUR MONEY.

Posted by: Pat Echelbarger on June 7, 2006 10:02 AM
24. I have to agree with JCM--by its sound, GMA sounds noble; i'm sure most people don't want uncontrolled and careless growth like condo's up every side of Mt Rainier or running sewage for streams; however, i too think it's a control grab; a constant picking away of our free choices until we are cornered & given 1-2 options on how to "properly" live; what i do not see much of is government trying to compromise with citizens to help them; sure--we have 'hearings' but the end result is some overturned ruling or legal play; forgot the Kelo case already?

Posted by: Jimmie-howya-doin on June 7, 2006 10:19 AM
25. If I may review a point I have made in earlier posts: For 75 percent of the country, houses have become more affordable over the last two decades. That is, buying a house takes a smaller proportion of an average family's income than it did.

We live in the other 25 percent.

That the patterns of changes in housing costs follow state (and sometimes city) boundaries shows unambiguously that state laws and regulations cause those differences in housing costs.

And people in New York (which has very high housing costs) wonder why people in Kansas (which has very low housing costs) vote for Republicans.

Posted by: Jim Miller on June 7, 2006 11:09 AM
26. DON'T FORGET WHO HAS TOUTED THAT "SHE" WAS THE ARCHITECT OF THE GROWTH MANAGEMENT ACT. WHY, IT IS NONE OTHER THAN OUR FABULOUS JUNIOR U.S. SENATOR---MARIA CANTWELL.
Posted by Pat Echelbarger at June 7, 2006 10:02 AM

Excellent reminder Pat.
McGavick and the R's should be POUNDING on Cantwell reminding people of this failed attempt of social engineering and make-believe economics!
It is a shining example of her failure to understand basic economics and not trust people with their own property.
I HOPE McGavick's troops do not miss this important issue...but they probably will.

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on June 7, 2006 11:41 AM
27. And keep in mind that even hardcore Seattle LEFTY'S are fed up with all the crime, traffic & high cost aspects of GMA!
People want everyone to live in high density....EXCEPT THEMSELVES!!!
Look at Joel Cornholey....a place in the City AND a place in the Country.
Joel is an oversized posterboy BOURGEOISE BOHEMIAN!!!!

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on June 7, 2006 11:43 AM
28. Brilliant blog! Matt, my West Seattle neighbor (yeah I know where you live), I applaud you for detailing a key point about Seattle---it is one of the most segregated, by design, liberal cities in America. Just like NYC, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, LA, Miami,...gee, I detect a pattern. The irony is if there were more uniform dispersion by race in Seattle's neighborhoods, we could actually save public schools versus shutting them.

Posted by: Kevin Leo on June 7, 2006 11:49 AM
29. i am no proponent of the GMA but i also know that our homes today are 2-3 times the size as in the '60s; we want bigger--and more--we are probably wealthier too--but that's fine--let the market sort out the buyers & sellers and keep govt forces to a bare minimum in the equation; sidebar--does this mean my hovel in Tent City is now sitting on a Monopoly Park Place WITH hotels?!

Posted by: Jimmie-howya-doin on June 7, 2006 11:54 AM
30. I work in Bothell, and currently live in North Bend, if the county would just let me build a 600-800 square foot detached garage on my property I could remodel my starter home into a place my family could live for a long time. Thanks to CAO, which is not required by GMA, regardless for what the liberals say, to get space for my growing family I'm considering a move to Enumclaw, where I can pretty much trade straight accross from my starter rambler (990) square feet to a 2500 square foot home with a big two car garage. A daily commute from Enumclaw to Bothell, thanks to GMA, now that's good for the environment.

The only way I could get a bigger house closer is to put the kids in day care and send my wife back to work, and I have Masters plus a professional certification so I make good income.

What I really want is to find a job in BFE, move the family there and drop a BA to King county on the way out.

Posted by: Dan on June 7, 2006 12:02 PM
31. Having just returned from NYC, I can tell you one thing with absolute certainty: the high-density lifestyle being shoved off on us by "urban planners" and other assorted socialist do-gooders is evil. Seeing NY is like looking at a human anthill, millions of people living in a space far, far too small for them.

The one thing that various socialist/environmentalist urban planners hate is the fact that most people don't desire to live in conditions that reduce them to being bugs swarming on asphalt and concrete. People want yards, space to themselves, green stuff growing around them, animals - not to be jammed into high-rise condominiums like so many sardines.

There is a reason we have suburban sprawl - people like it.

Posted by: H Moul on June 7, 2006 12:47 PM
32. There is a reason we have suburban sprawl - people like it.

I suppose this is true. But honestly, I don't understand how people live in those new McMansion developments with zero lot lines. And unfortunately, that seems to be what is primarily built these days because of the limited amount of land available for development.

The land is clear cut to make room for as many houses as possible, and instead of being crammed into a downtown condo, they are crammed into a suburban development, complete with CCR's that tell you what kind of fence you can build and what color you can paint your house. To me, that is not freedom, but to each his own I guess.

This is why I live outside the urban growth boundary, and there are limits to the number of houses that can be built per acre. The GMA certainly has flaws, but I'm thankful for parts of it.

Posted by: Palouse on June 7, 2006 01:21 PM
33. Don't forget that Maria Cantwell was the chief sponsor of the Growth Management Act when in Olympia. But then she's part of the Gang That Knows Best. . . certainly better than the peons. . .

Posted by: LeoR on June 7, 2006 02:02 PM
34. "Where in Central Puget Sound... would you advise a young family of four to look for a 2,000 square-foot home with a two-car garage for under $225,000, in a town with decent public schools?"

I wouldn't advise them to look for any such thing.

I would advise a young family of four, with utopian delusions of "decent public schools", who can afford $225K, but is too snobby to settle for something less than a nice, 2,000 square-foot home with a two-car garage in Seattle or Kirkland, to get real.

For a typical, working class young family starting out, looking for a home under $225K: I would suggest that they look for an older 1,100 square-foot home with a one-car garage, perhaps in South or East Tacoma, Parkland or Lacey; and look for work in Olympia, Tacoma or South King County. In a few years, when they're making more money and have built some equity, they can step up to something more prestigious.

Thank God for all that "...unregulated sprawl full of strip malls and small developements with cultiscas(sic). Have to drive to everything. Ugly and unworkable."

I wouldn't trade it for anything in Seattle. I love it all: the driving, the unregulated sprawl. I love strip malls. Maybe I'm a hick. I think my neighbors are - they act like it - kind of noisey, an occasional brawl - but they're great.

Maybe some people are eliter (snobbier) than we. Or maybe eliter people feel insecure outside of a highly regimented, heavily regulated, government controlled environment.

I like freedom. And I like free people around me. But sometimes free people do weird things. I love it.

Posted by: ken on June 7, 2006 02:18 PM
35. Ken.... You have me laughing!!! Definition of a hick = someone who lives near a strip mall, or lives at the end of a cul-de-sac....I thought a hick lived on 10 acres and 20 miles from the nearest gas pump..... My, how times have changed.

I am a hick of the latter group....Wouldn't change it for the world. I will be downsizing to 2 acres in a few years, and my ten acres will be worth 15 times what I paid for it, and the stuck on woodstock buyer from california will think he stole it from me.

For just a hick, pretty smart aren't we.....

Posted by: Chris on June 7, 2006 03:01 PM
36. After 30 years of "planning" in Oregon, couldn't the talking heads in Seattle and the State of Washington figure out that growth "management" is an oxymoron? Anyone with a high school education knows that Economics 101 preaches that shortages of something in demand will artificially inflate prices. Yet the elitists who love government control conveniently ignore that.

And what do they propose? Infill developments of ugly snout houses that don't mesh with a neighborhood. Or they demand that government tax people to pay for affordable housing. They create the problem and then they want to create yet more bureaucracies to "correct" the problem they've created.

Truthfully, I think that these self-righteous elitists have all along wanted to use government to manage things to a point where they can profit by buying into neighborhoods, keep out dark-skinned people and increase their own wealth. Interesting how the media never suggests such a thing.

Posted by: Bob on June 7, 2006 10:16 PM
37. Bob---re your Economics 101 lesson that "shortages of something in demand will artificially inflate prices": Maria Cantwell, mother of the Growth Management Act (which severely restricted the supply of developable land), having been elevated from mere state Legislature up to the Federal Senate, now pontificates about oil companies and "gouging" . . . (never mind about restricted supply by Katrina---about 5% of capacity still down----or increased demand from industrializing China).

She never too Econ 101 I guess. But that doesn't stop Cantwell from being our Senatress (for a few mor months, anyway!).

Posted by: LeoR on June 7, 2006 10:25 PM
38. RE: Palouse's comments about the small lots "McMansions" are being built on. Does everyone know that if you have a 2 acre parcel in the UGA and it is zoned for single family homes at a R9600 or R8400 etc designation and you want to subdivide and build only 1 home on each acre (maybe for yourself and the other for your child) that the GMA does not allow you to do that? You are wasting "their land", comrades.

Posted by: Pat Echelbarger on June 8, 2006 11:00 AM
39. the other thing i noticed about the growth initiatives/restrictions and the elite imposing them is that THEIR houses are usually big, sprawling and on some decent acreage with nice amenities or views; so--walk the talk; when i see a GMO-pushing councilmember, i expect to see him-her in a little cramped condo saving Earth-space and living such beliefs on their own personal level; remember our local buddy the Judge who cut all those trees down for HIS mansion's view?

Posted by: Jimmie-howya-doin on June 9, 2006 01:23 PM
40. Chris...

You might not be a hick.

I'm not sure, but I think by today's standards, in the context of a liberal elitist, highly enlightened Pacific Northwest/Seattlist society - living on 10 to 20 acres miles from a gas station or strip mall, like you do...

...you might be a full-blown hillbilly.

Posted by: ken on June 10, 2006 12:44 PM
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