Some folks in the liberal blogosphere, including Horse's Ass and the Northwest Progressive Institute, are gushing about recent fundraising totals from Darcy Burner and Dave Reichert. They would be well-served to temper their enthusiasm based on past history with trends involved in this race, since money raised does not equal votes earned.
Here are the raw numbers, Burner raised $590k and Reichert $569k in the most recent quarter. Reichert ended the quarter with $1.11 million on hand, Burner with $769k, leaving Reichert with a $340k cash-on-hand advantage.
Specifically, the liberal bloggers are trying to make much hay of the fact Burner narrowly out raised Reichert, and slightly narrowed his cash-on-hand advantage (which stood at $367k at the end of March) - showing both candidates raised and spent money at about the same rate last quarter. Those bloggers seem to have forgotten Reichert barely out raised a more formidable opponent, Dave Ross, in 2004 by a margin of $1.58 million to $1.45 million, yet still won comfortably, 51.5% to 46.7%.
If you're looking for most recent history with such scenarios in this state, one could also refer to the 2004 race between Cathy McMorris and Don Barbieri for the 5th Congressional District. The two raised money essentially dollar for dollar, $1.65 million for McMorris to $1.63 million for Barbieri, but McMorris cruised to victory by a margin of 60% to 40% in what some people thought would be a competitive race.
In addition, these bloggers are of course happy because they've spent a good amount of time plugging her candidacy locally and across the country in liberal online circles. Obviously, that advocacy can payoff in fundraising. Just like it did for Howard Dean in 2000, who raised money hand-over-fist based on netroots enthusiasm, but whose campaign began to stumble badly even before collapsing with the infamous scream.
Also, it's worth noting the enthusiasm of the netroots has by no means been found to equate with electoral success. Indeed, there is growing evidence that many Democrats are increasingly skeptical of the benefit of the netroots influence on their party.
Yes, Darcy Burner's fundraising numbers are good, as are Reichert's. Political observers expect as much in races targeted by both parties. But, enthusiasm for a candidate is not a reliable means in and of itself to assume the race will stay as competitive as the enthusiasts believe.
UPDATE: Links added for fundraising and electoral totals from Reichert's 2004 race.
"Gushing" is certainly putting it mildly. Reading those 2 sites, (what little I can take), only confirms my belief that the mental age of the average far-leftist is approximately 12.
You'd think these folks would have learned by now not to count their chickens before they're hatched.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on July 15, 2006 05:58 PMUnlike the 5th which is quite conservative, the 8th is rather moderate. To win Burner will need to define Riechart as an extreme conservative, whereas she is a moderate. Ideally a socially liberal fiscally conservative one. This is a challenge for Dems who have often not been able to do the sort of defining necessary to win. For too long we have thought that polices will win elections (Kerry). That being said,, in recent months the dems have been getting better at this. The money that Burner has rasied will let her do this, if she can.
In the 8th District when Darcy decides to start campaigning with her buddies Ron Sims and Dwight Pelz she is in for a rude awakening. Her rallies feature the usual victim of the month club members, left over burnouts who carry flags upside down and really passionate united workers of the world wannabes who just know that given appropriate funding socialism can work here in United States. Darcy, if you lie down with David Goldstien you are gonna get fleas.
Posted by: 8th District Voter on July 15, 2006 09:09 PMYou neglect to mention that George Bush came to town last month and was expected to have raised $500,000 for Reichert. The event may have only raised less than half that much, and the rest of Reichert's fundraising couldn't put him above Darcy Burner's numbers, when everyone expected Reichert to out fund-raise Burner.
From that standpoint Reichert's fundraising numbers simple aren't good at all.
Posted by: Daniel K on July 15, 2006 09:20 PMI liked the title, but like this one, as well: Giving Credit Where None Is Due.
Goldy and his merry band of Burner cheerleaders can tout her "fundraising prowess" all they want -- the fact remains that she has painfully little public service experience.
Burner's Harvard and Microsoft creds may look good on paper -- but they are minor in comparison to Reichert's 30+ years of service to King County.
Posted by: Patrick on July 15, 2006 10:11 PMThis is who we want representing us in Congress?
Posted by: Janet S on July 15, 2006 11:04 PMThis information is documented Here
Posted by: Lynne on July 15, 2006 11:31 PMAnd Brooks is right---I have never agreed that Lieberman is some kind of conservative. I never saw that in him. I remember how liberal he was talking in 2000 as veep nominee and being appalled at him for it.
Dems should get over themselves and support him. He really is one of theirs more than they think.
The meme of this race is Moderate Republican vs. unknown Dhimmicrat in potentially moderate district (no one has provided any evidence that the 8th is "moderate" and saying it doesn't make it so).
It cracks me up that the left variously describes Reichert as a "crazed fundie" (ostensibly far right) and Rubber-stamp Republican when he has cast almost as many votes with the Dhimmicrats as he has the Republicans. Reichert is an independent who sways right and that makes folks nervous on both sides of the fence. He is doing what he thinks is proper representation of all his constituents, unlike someone like burner who will reliably only represent the left.
As much as some of his decisions frustrate me, I won't hesitate to mark my ballot for him. The alternative is just too unpleasant to consider.
Posted by: alphabet soup on July 16, 2006 09:50 AMDave is villified by the leftys because Dave has a fundraisers IN his STATE and IN his DISTRICT with the leaders of his party, but the Cotton Candy Debutante takes her empty Manolo Blahnik's OUT of her district to ANOTHER STATE (hello, San Francisco - show me the money!!) for a fundraiser with her party's leaders (yes, I know that's an oxymoron) and no one says a peep.
The Cotton Candy Debutante may have a few pennies more at the moment, but she didn't get it from the folks who will vote in the 8th.
Unfortunately I feel the same about McGavick. I believe under different circumstances he might make a decent senator, but I believe even more firmly in the values of divided government.
In short, and I hear this ALOT from other independents that I speak to, I believe the biggest issue in both elections is the miserable constitutional and fiscal performance of the current Republican congress. Given that, the only vote by Reichert that I care about is his vote for the Speaker.
Come to think about it, I felt something like this back in '94.
Posted by: MJ on July 16, 2006 12:16 PMAlphabet soup you have either a very selective memory or you are willfully ignorant. The 8th voted for Murray and Kerry in '04, while supporting Rossi and Reichert. Seems like a moderate district to me.
Posted by: Ben Diamond on July 16, 2006 01:12 PMIf you were riding in a plane who would you want to be your Pilot
1. Experience Pilot of 30 yrs (Reichart)
2. Just Licensed Pilot with more money than #1 (Burner)
I take #1, cause my odds are that I will get there safely. Money isn't everything, and I believe the (real) people of the 8th don't really give a damn about the fund raising abilities of a campaign.
If the Burner Supporters continue this " I raised more than Reichart" mantra, It may backfire, as it is really childish.
No one's saying that money is everything here, but ability to fundraise effectively is one of many indications that Burner is a viable candidate.
Posted by: Ben Diamond on July 16, 2006 04:34 PMWhat I said was that each side will try to cast the other as an extremist. That's what you do to win a moderate swing district. Once you get to the congressional level, retail politics becomes very difficult and instead you have to rely more on typecasting yourself and your opponent. Policy is about serious issues of moral consequence, politics is about playing the game and you have to win the game to make the policy.
I've seen nothing from Reichert that indicates he has any intention to cast burner as an "extremist" - he doesn't have to - all he has to do is point to her "record" ;'}
Posted by: alphabet soup on July 16, 2006 10:50 PM