Today's Seattle Times has this article by Lornet Turnbull about children of gay and lesbian parents in public schools: "Finding schools that strive to be inclusive". Turnbull's advocacy tone is typical of her reportage. More astonishing here are the credulity-stretching numbers:
Nationally, it is estimated that between 6 million and 12 million children are being raised in gay and lesbian households. The 2000 Census found that 19 percent of the 1,423 Washington households headed by gay men and 23 percent of the 1,881 run by lesbians included children under 18.Color me skeptical.
This study from UCLA's Williams Institute estimates from 2000 census data that there were roughly 6 million gay/lesbians out of 281 million total population, and 80 million children (19 or under). So, even at the low end, Turnbull's numbers imply that there are 6 out of 80 million children in gay/lesbian households (6 million adults), vs. 74 million children in straight households (194 million adults). That would impute that the gay adults are raising 3 times more children per capita than straight adults are raising. I have a hard time believing that.
I e-mailed Turnbull and asked her to substantiate her numbers: Her answer was not particularly substantive:
The estimate of between 6 and 12 million children has been reported often. It also includes those children who were born into man/woman relationships, whose parents later came out.She cites the group COLAGE, which states both that
In the United States alone, more than 10 million people have one or more lesbian, gay, bisexual and/or transgender parent(s).and
In 1990 6 million to 14 million children in the United States were living with a gay or lesbian parent.If 10 million people supposedly have at least one homosexual parent, and children are less than 30% of the total population, it's hard for me to believe that children represent between 60% and 140% of the people with homosexual parents.
Regarding the reported numbers that there are 1,423 gay male and 1,881 lesbian headed households in Washington -- The Census bureau doesn't make it easy to find the number of same-sex couples with children or by state, but I did find the 2000 Census figure of 594,000 same-sex couples nationwide. Since Washington state's population is pretty close to 1/50th of the U.S. population, a ballpark estimate is that there are 12,000 same-sex households in the state. So I'm skeptical of Turnbull's numbers that there are a total of only 3,301 same-sex households.
Her response:
Our stats on gay households in Washington came directly from the 2000 Census. You may want to check the data yourself. One thing jumps about your numbers jump out at me right away; Your 600,000 gay hhs actually represents ALL same-sex hhs. Our figure represents only those gay hhs with children under 18. Much smaller universe.This is not consistent with what the article reports.
Children who happen to be raised by gay and lesbian parents deserve as much of an opportunity to succeed as every other child, but it's hard to take Turnbull's reportage on the subject very seriously when her numbers don't make any sense.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at September 12, 2006 03:05 PM | Email This56.2% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Posted by: Hinton on September 12, 2006 03:24 PMI think that you get the "No-prize" for the most humorous comment of the week.
Your "No-prize" should be arriving in the mail soon.
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&-context=dt&-ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&-CONTEXT=dt&-mt_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_PCT014&-tree_id=4001&-redoLog=true&-all_geo_types=N&-_caller=geoselect&-geo_id=01000US&-geo_id=04000US53&-geo_id=05000US53033&-geo_id=16000US5363000&-search_results=16000US5363000&-format=&-_lang=en
Posted by: Richard Pope on September 12, 2006 03:33 PMsend your kids to a 'rainbow' school if you choose; I'll support your choice and pay for vouchers; me? i'll send mine to a religious or other charter school; that's tolerance & choice in action;
but--don't MAKE or FORCE me to accept YOUR lifestyle; simple; live & let live--but live in YOUR place of choosing; not toss me in YOURS; just like other religions, pay for your own schools, don't make ALL taxpayers buy into your preferences;
my choice to freely live among the people I prefer is called 'freedom' to me--but 'bigotry' to you;
Posted by: jimmie-howya-doin on September 12, 2006 03:35 PMIn total unmarried partner households, it is a little over 5.0% nationwide and a little under 8.0% in Seattle. More than half of this difference can be explained by the higher rate of same-sex partner households in Seattle.
Posted by: Richard Pope on September 12, 2006 03:37 PMSan Francisco has nearly 3 times as many male same-sex partner households as female same-sex partner households.
San Francisco is not that much "gayer" than Seattle -- 2.70% versus 1.92% in total percentage of same-sex partner households.
Seattle has a higher percentage of female same-sex partner households than San Francisco -- 0.86% versus 0.71%.
Utah has almost the same percentage of same-sex partner households as the nation as a whole -- 0.48% versus 0.56%. (I assume these are concentrated in the Salt Lake City area, as the numbers in Provo and the surrounding Utah County, which is in my data set, are a but lower than for Utah as a whole.)
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&-context=dt&-ds_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U&-CONTEXT=dt&-mt_name=DEC_2000_SF1_U_PCT014&-tree_id=4001&-redoLog=true&-all_geo_types=N&-_caller=geoselect&-geo_id=01000US&-geo_id=04000US06&-geo_id=04000US49&-geo_id=04000US53&-geo_id=05000US06075&-geo_id=05000US49049&-geo_id=05000US53033&-geo_id=16000US0667000&-geo_id=16000US4962470&-geo_id=16000US5363000&-search_results=16000US0667000&-format=&-_lang=en
Posted by: Richard Pope on September 12, 2006 03:52 PMhttp://www.gaydemographics.org/USA/2000Census_Gay_zipcode.htm
You will note that male same-sex partner couples tend to concentrate in particular areas at a much higher rate than do female same-sex partner couples. While the total number of male and female same-sex partner couples is roughly equal in the USA as a whole, the "gayest" areas tend to have many times the percentage of male couples versus female couples -- often five times as many male couples.
Posted by: Richard Pope on September 12, 2006 03:56 PMSecond, I think that the last sentince in this post is something we can't say enough: everyone deserves the same OPPORTUNITY to succeed in life. We can't (and we shouldn't) guarantee outcomes in life. That's what I wish we would talk about in education: opportunity instead of entitlement.
Posted by: Sstar on September 12, 2006 04:11 PMStefan...why are you so focused on gay stuff? It really occupies a lot of your postings. Why do you care about gay stuff so much?
Posted by: Peter Vochick on September 12, 2006 04:26 PMI didn't say it did. I'm "conservative" (fiscally more than socially), but I'm also gay. It was only an observation that I was surprised at the number of openly gay families (with children) living out in the rather conservative suburbs. It makes sense I guess... I would not want to raise my children in Seattle Public schools.
Posted by: Splinter on September 12, 2006 04:49 PMThis message has been brought to you by your local professional statistician.
Posted by: H Moul on September 12, 2006 08:19 PMThe 2000 Census, as it says right there in the part of the article Stefan quotes.
Posted by: Seth on September 13, 2006 09:32 AM