Lots of polling shows a close race between Rep. Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner, but as we head into the apex of the campaign season the Burner backers would be wise not to get ahead of themselves.
I said at this site back in July (comment #16 here) Burner deserves credit for her fundraising, and if I had to pick a candidate to run against Reichert a younger, professional woman is a great choice (especially in a district trending Democrat in statewide elections). But, there's still the issue of actually beating Reichert.
While Burner backers can get excited over recent polls and fundraising they should keep the following in mind:
1) At about this time in 2004, Dave Ross held a two-point lead in the same such Survey USA poll now showing a two-point advantage for Reichert. We all know that 2004 race ended up with a five-point margin of victory for Reichert.
2) One of the three recent polls in question, for Emily's List, actually released name ID figures, which showed Burner with very poor name ID since over 50% of those surveyed had not heard of her. This after she's had the airwaves to herself for TV advertising the last six weeks - that would concern me a lot if I were on her campaign team.
3) Even with those six weeks of airtime to herself, Burner has yet to overtake Reichert, but has still left a substantial portion of the electorate uninformed about her. It's a good chance Reichert's campaign and/or the NRCC might seek to help in that education process.
4) Reichert himself is well equipped for the sprint to the finish. He had over a $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage going into this current (and almost concluded) reporting period - and he isn't the one who has had TV ads on the air. In the midst of the attention paid to Burner's fundraising in recent months, people seem to forget Reichert raised more than $1 million last year, and has brought in well over $2 million total during the campaign. That's notably more than in his victory over Dave Ross, where the two candidates spent money nearly dollar for dollar.
In short, Darcy Burner certainly has a well-motivated base, wherever they may live, and the money to get her message out. Yet Reichert has the money needed too, a firm foundation of support in the district, and now the time and resources to frame the campaign in a way his opponent has thus far failed to do.
I fear he's running a Dole campaign, and while good campaigning has nothing to do w/ good representation, you cannot be in the Congress if you cannot run effectively
Posted by: righton on September 29, 2006 09:26 AMWhy you should not believe the polls showing Darcy Burner in a dead heat with Reichert in the 8th:
Take a look at the Survey USA Poll Crosstabs here.
Note the following:
Under Age / Generation:
Somewhere around 50% of the respondents represent the Baby Boomer/ Jones generation. This is the same group that brought us 60s Liberalism. And this is a lot more of an accurate indicator than the "Ideology" tab because a large percentage of people view themselves as moderate, or at least represent themselves outwardly that way when asked because it is now ingrained and politically correct for us all to do so.
Under Education:
Note that a large percentage of those polled, probably around 75% or higher have a college education or even more schooling. This survey is largely measuring the viewpoint of educated college educated professionals in a blue state. While some might say that this is indicative of the true makeup of the 8th district, this is doubtful. The respondents to this poll are largely those people who have received education from a very left biased ivory tower university education system.
Under Party Affiliation:
40% Dem, 37% Republican. Not only is this significant in the slant of the poll, but it's also significant in that it is unlikely the true makeup of all likely voters in the 8th.
Under Race/ Income:
The respondents here reflect the race of WA of a whole, which is largely white, but they also reflect the poll which shows a largely wealthy white population. Wealthy, White and in a Blue state. Again, taken together, these tend to indicate a skew to the left.
From the above and past experience with pre-election polls conducted on behalf of obviously left leaning media such as KING5, I believe that the respondents to this poll are not a true reflection of 8th District voters. My prediction is that we are going to see Reichert win the race.
Posted by: Jeff B. on September 29, 2006 10:24 AMShe's been home here in the district (well, when she's not money grabbing in Seattle, Chicago or San Francisco) where presumably all she has to do is get up every morning and go out to campaign.
Dave, on the other hand, has been back in dc working, while his staff here campaigns for him.
With the time advantage darcy has had (and she's had enough to practically MEET every single voter of the 8th in person) over Dave, her numbers should be soaring... and yet she's dead "even" in polls that are acknoledged are unbalanced toward democrats (40% Dem, 37% Republican).
You'd have to be pie-eyed optimistic to call that good news for the the little girl that wants to be.
She has never been vetted, she has never volunteered to serve her community but apparently she is willing to start at the top in prestige and pay scale in Congress. Integrity is often defined as how you behave when people are not observing you. According to her voting record she didn't have the integrity to participate in important local issues until she felt people were going to be looking.
Posted by: Smokie on September 29, 2006 11:05 AMPerhaps Governor of Texas would be a better position to start at?
Posted by: Ben Diamond on September 29, 2006 12:43 PMDarcy offers nothing of value to the people of the 8th. She has declined to involve herself with the community until she saw an opportunity to prosper from it personally. She can not be anything but a puppet of the Democratic party because she has no unique experience as an individual in government. She has not had to operate as a subordinate or as lower level elected governmental offical to appreciate how to get things done when you are in the minority or the majority. She claimed she was going to Law School to learn about how laws were made when she first ran, but in her latest pod-cast message she said she left Microsoft to run for Congress skipping the year or so in Law School completely.
The message is vote for Darcy because she's from a working class family, Soldier, Janitor, Beer Truck Driver. Hell the only one without a job is Darcy and yet her personal privileged lifestyle denies her working class facade. If she wants to prove herself to the people of the 8th, let her work herself up through the system, prove she's a work horse not a show horse of the HA variety.
Posted by: Smokie on September 29, 2006 02:27 PMI am interested in your analysis along similar lines in the McGavick-Cantwell race. I know you don't really dig the Elway poll but just know the latest (fielded last week) has Cantwell up 53-35 %. In likely voter land Cantwell leads 52-36 %. And among voters paying attention, Cantwell leads 60-29 %.
Cantwell has far more money on hand to burn. McGavick says he's done self-financing. And with numbers and statements like that in the national press he's going to have trouble raising more.
The national GOP appears to be focused on incumbant salvage operations in Senate races in Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio and now Virginia.
thor - I'd be happy to dig into Elway's poll, but it's almost never released publicy, and the crosstabs (which Survey USA releases all the time) are almost impossible to find short of being an Elway subscriber. That being said, I was much more comfortable with the 536 Likely Voter sample Survey USA used for the 8th CD poll than I was with the 481 Likely Voter sample in the Senate race counterpart.
Posted by: Eric Earling on September 29, 2006 04:53 PMI'll bet you aren't the only one more "comfortable" with the poll that gives Reichert a fighting chance compared to polls consistently showing McGavick trailing by 12-16 % or more with the overall trend being that Cantwell is widening her lead.
Polls aren't about feeling "comfortable" - and they aren't always right.
But they can help people outside of individual political campaigns make decisions about where money and resources are best spent.
The smart GOP money and effort is clearly in the 8th.
Posted by: thor on September 29, 2006 05:28 PMShe has money, she has Democratic backing, she has no record of public service, she has no ideas unique from the party, she is supported by probably the most hated group in East King County, Sims and the King County Council Democrats. She is unknown because she has never done ANYTHING remotely deemed productive for the community.
Posted by: Smokie on September 29, 2006 05:59 PMI really don't care about Darcy's opinions on the issue issues of national importance for the same reason I don't ask my barber how to solve the illegal immigration issue, they have no credibility or basis of knowledge. And if she ever makes the mistake of getting in front of an audience that isn't hand picked and they know her background, I'm confident she will be torn apart. But maybe she can field softballs from Ross and Goldy all the way through the election you never know.
I know your arguments don't matter to people of the 8th because you don't have any issues, your girl is running on who she isn't, not what she is.
Wel I'm sure your shift on the blog troll is about over so have a good night.
Posted by: Smokie on September 29, 2006 10:21 PMAnd did I remember to mention her latest pledges
TAX TAX TAX TAX You to death
Do we need another
TAX TAX TAX HAPPY Democrat
in this state?
I say NO
I say Hell No
Why, you going to tamper with my ballot?
Posted by: Ben Diamond on September 30, 2006 10:00 AMNo ben, I'm not a Dhimmicrat...
Posted by: alphabet soup on September 30, 2006 02:32 PMDarcy, has had a cake walk so far, now the party is getting started. As far as unprincipled goes, I think I will stay with person who has spent a lifetime here, held a job for more than three years, didn't lie about his accomplishements and didn't have to pimp out his family members and THEIR service to make himself look more important. You have made it abundantly clear that any real measure of qualification or appreciation of service and experience is beyond you. Good luck running with that philosphy Ben, now we know why you support Darcy.
Posted by: Smokie on September 30, 2006 04:29 PMI think I saw someone up above claiming that Reichert's incumbancy was a liability. Laughably stupid GOP gibberish!
It is useless and delusional to compare these numbers with Ross/Reichert in 2004. Darcy's low name recognition is exactly why she's going to win. Reichert has less than 50% 5 weeks out and everyone in the district knows exactly who he is. As people find out about Darcy through the millions of dollars in ads and tens of thousands of doorbells over the next weeks, the remaining undecided voters will largely break toward Darcy, giving her the win.
Believe me or don't. We'll al know in six weeks.
Posted by: Sorry Charlie on September 30, 2006 07:37 PMDon't say that noone told you so...
Posted by: KS on September 30, 2006 10:17 PMNo matter what the issue, you seem to find a hole in the republican position and use it as the reason that you will be voting for the other side.
It doesn't matter that the democratic position might have more hole in it, or (as in this case) that the opponent is an unqualified candidate who hasn't even bothered to vote in past elections and that is vocally opposed to even the most basic positions of the republican party, you're going to vote for it.
It's pretty pathetic actually.
Posted by: Johnny on October 1, 2006 02:28 PMMy prediction ... it's not going to be close in the 8th, R's lose the House, R's lose the Senate. Only killing Bin Laden, another terrorist attack in the US, or an event of that magnitude will alter the results. All these losses will come against a pathetic national Democratic Party that can't articulate a common theme or plan - in other words the Disaster of 2006 is self-inflicted because of a party more concerned with power retention then with good governance.
Posted by: John McDonald on October 3, 2006 05:18 AM
My husband took the second call. After I scraped him off the ceiling he reported that it was a taped Darcy Burner bashing message from the Republican Party.
Our home leans to the right, slightly on my part and heavily on my husband’s part. We have assessed both candidates carefully, are incensed and embarrassed by our Republican Party’s campaigning approach and ethics, and will be voting for Darcy Burner, Democrat.