Given all the predictions of a Democrat takeover of Congress, written as if it were a fait accompli, I was curious to see how well the media predicted the Republican Congressional landslide of 1994. I found the following pre-election week articles in the Seattle Times archive. On the whole, the coverage wasn't completely wrong, although the magnitude of the coming Republican tsunami was somewhat understated. If there were articles that were as optimistic about a decisive Republican takeover in the same tone that the media today is optimistically predicting a Democrat takeover, I didn't find them. Dean Barnett argues that media polls are structurally biased against Republicans and that he "expects Tuesday to be an extremely successful day for the Republican Party". Who knows? I won't make any predictions. I'll only observe that polling, punditry and journalism do not have a track record of being all that precise.

Pre-election Articles from 1994 (election day was Nov. 8).

Thursday, November 3:Polls Are Good News For Republicans In Congressional Races -- Midterm Voter Approval At 40-Year High

The Post-ABC News survey suggests Democrats are ahead of GOP congressional candidates, but by the smallest margin in years.

The survey indicates 48 percent who said they were certain to vote Tuesday planned to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives, while 45 percent favored the Republican candidate. Three weeks ago, a sampling indicated Republicans led Democrats 49 percent to 47 percent.

Among likely voters, Republicans hold a 48 percent-43 percent advantage when Americans are asked which party they favor in their local congressional district, according to a Times Mirror poll.

A second survey also out last night, by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, gave Republicans a 40 percent-37 percent edge.

But the Times Mirror poll, conducted Thursday through Saturday, also showed that late-deciding voters appear to be breaking in favor of the Democrats.

Sunday, November 6: Voters Decide Tuesday Which Party's Right -- Whatever Happens, It's Been Strange Season

Sunday, November 6: Congressional Races Hinging On Turnout

Sunday, November 6: The Mood Out There: Sour, Frustrated

George Nethercutt's victory over Tom Foley was anticipated, if downplayed --

Thursday, November 3: Foley Running Neck And Neck With Gop Foe -- Speaker Using Clout And Money In Re-Election Bid

A poll published Sunday in the Spokesman-Review newspaper showed the race statistically tied. Nethercutt had 46 percent and Foley 44 percent, with 10 percent undecided

But Slade Gorton's decisive re-election over Ron Sims wasn't called all that well --

Thursday, November 3 Political Notebook:

Now, they say, it's close: A new statewide poll conducted by KING-TV calls the U.S. Senate race a virtual dead heat.

The poll, conducted by Political Media Research, a Washington, D.C., firm, found Republican Slade Gorton leading Democrat Ron Sims 44 percent to 41 percent, with 15 percent of the electorate undecided. With a 3.5 percentage-point margin of error, the poll means the race could be a tossup.