July 20, 2007
Stick a fork in him

NPR had the best summary I've found on the financial position of the major Republican presidential candidates. (and yes, the Democrats this year are vastly out-fundraising the Republicans)

Giuliani raised $17 million last quarter, for $18 million cash on hand. Romney has $12 million cash on hand, of which nearly $9 million is from Romney's personal loan to the campaign.

But the biggest news is John McCain's implosion.

McCain has only $1.8 million cash net of debts, "an astonishingly low number", putting him in the same financial league as no-hope Democrats Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich. Linda Wertheimer described the McCain campaign as "down to two men and a bus, practically"

Last week the WSJ suggested that McCain could revive his campaign just as Reagan recovered from financial and organizational problems in late 1979.

But Reagan had a large following. George Will today explains why McCain doesn't.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at July 20, 2007 11:30 AM | Email This
Comments
1. Senator Mike Gravel is not a "no hope" candidate. His campaign is gaining momentum, and the Senator is poised to jump into 4th place at some point in the near-to-medium term. Senator Gravel is seriously interested in ending the war in Iraq--unlike his challengers form the mainstream-Democratic party, who are merely playing tiddlywinks.

Posted by: BigMike on July 20, 2007 11:50 AM
2. Once Thompson officially gets in the race, the money will come pouring in.

Posted by: Don on July 20, 2007 12:12 PM
3. McCain is not totally done, but ... it doesn't look good. It is extremely unlikely he can come back.

Posted by: pudge on July 20, 2007 12:32 PM
4. McCain could always hire those illegals he so cherishes. After all, American are too lazy to pick lettuce for $50/hr according to Johnny boy.

Posted by: pbj on July 20, 2007 02:50 PM
5. Hint for politicians: Do not insult those whose votes you wish to receive.

Posted by: pbj on July 20, 2007 02:54 PM
6. Aren't Republicans blasted for pandering to the rich when they raise more money than the Dems?

Posted by: Adam on July 20, 2007 03:26 PM
7. Adam, that's exactly the sort of cynicism that Sen. Obama says we need to fight against.

Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on July 20, 2007 03:29 PM
8.
My question is: what exactly do people spend all these millions on in a campaign?

I mean, take:

Giulliani -- already famous, anything he says or does will be in the press.

Thompson -- Hollywood actor, tv star, same as RG.

Romney -- former governor...and rich guy. Son of famous former Presidential candidate.

What do these guys need money for? Or Hillary or Obama or Edwards?

I mean, how about going out and DOING STUFF that is good for the country, and getting your name in the paper and getting publicity that way?

Posted by: John Bailo on July 20, 2007 04:00 PM
9. Hey John, look what it's done for McCain. Supporting our troops and the war against terrorism and it sure hasn't brought him good publicity. Contrast that to the great publicity the do-nothing Senators Clinton and Obama have gotten. How about all the free kudos and publicity the MSM has given TWITT (The World is Terminally Toxic) Gore, or Edwards. The Republicans need the most dough to equalize the MSM freebies the Dems get. It's nice to see that the R's are holding their giving until the nomination is done, the Dems will have tapped out their supporters by then.

Posted by: Doug on July 20, 2007 05:28 PM
10. That summary is pretty good, but the NPR guy giving the analysis actually missed a couple key points.

First, he misstates McCain's true situation. In reality McCain has $1.9 million in primary cash on hand before debts (not after), which total $1.75 million. His campaign is virtually living hand to mouth to keep even the spartan operation he's pared down to now running.

Second, the analyst quotes cash on hand largely without respect for whether or not the money can be spent in the primary season or whether it can only be spent in the general. Using this particularly interesting tool here one can see that while Giuliani has $18 million on hand, only $14.7 can be spent on the primaries, whereas all of Romney's $12.1 million is primary money. Likewise, while Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in overall cash-on-hand, he actually has a modest advantage ($34.5 million to $32.7 million) in money that can be spent on the primaries. That sets up the Democratic contest to be one of the great primary slugfests in modern history.

Posted by: Eric Earling on July 20, 2007 05:37 PM
11. I always like to look at where the investors are putting their money - Intrade is a good site for that. Since Jan. '07, Romney's stock has stayed the same (with normal ups and downs) - about 16%. Since Jan. '07 Rudy's stock has risen sharply from about 15 to 40. McCain has gone from 50 to 5 - lots of people loss lots of money on him. Thompson has gone from not traded to about 34.

These are people putting real dollars on the Presidential nomination, they have put McCain in a position that only speculators will put the dough on him, and even with Romney's recent good showing in Iowa and NH polling, the money isn't on him at all.

Posted by: Doug on July 20, 2007 06:06 PM
12. Thanks to Eric for linking to this excellent NY Times campaign finances tool. Just clicking down the list of candidates gives you a very good and well-presented visual picture of the overall financial state for each candidate. From a techie website design point of view the rollover pop-up of actual dollar totals for each circle was especially well done, given the complex concentration of some of the data. Whoever did this website knew what they were doing.

SIDEBAR: Would be neat if somebody could do similar for the state of WA for 2008. The data to support it should all be available from the PDC.

A few of the more interesting visuals that jump out, after running the NY Times map for each candidate:

[1] ... The ''top 6'' declared candidates are the only ones who have run anything close to truly distributed national fundraising operations (soon to be the ''top 5'', as McCain continues his non-recoverable flat spin); and even the soon-2-be top 5 have some interesting concentrations.

[2] ... The overwhelming majority of Clinton's $63M comes from the greater Boston-NY-Wash corridor, Chicago, San Fran, LA, and Miami (no real surprise there). Obama's distribution is somewhat better than Clinton's, even allowing for the understandable spike from Chicago.

[3] ... By my quick look Romney and Edwards have the most even distribtuion of contributions for the Top 6, even with Mitt's spike from Utah. Biggest surpise on the Giuliani map is that he got about 11 percent of all his money just from Texas.

[4] ... Richardson and Dodd are kind of by themselves in the financial 2nd Tier, but they're also mostly regional fund-raisers: Richardson gets about half his $ from NM, TX, and southern CA; with about 31 percent coming just from NM. Dodd's money is even more concentrated, in the Bos-Wash corridor.

[5] ... The rest of them are just along for the ride; and of course Gilmore is already history... although one mildly interesting footnote (not that it will make any difference): Ron Paul got well-distributed contributions from all 50 states.

Posted by: Methow Ken on July 20, 2007 10:17 PM
13. I wasn't going to vote for McCain, but I'll give him his props on the war. He's made some good points about it on the senate floor of late. Put his silly leftist colleagues to shame.

Posted by: Michele on July 20, 2007 10:52 PM
14. Michele, You are absolutely correct about McCain making good points on the Senate floor lately. I separate the political reality in the race for President from those good comments.

Posted by: Methow Ken on July 20, 2007 11:11 PM
15. Say what you will about McCain, but he's probably the most resilient politician in American politics today. The McCain trademark is surviving the ups and downs. He does retail politics like no other candidate, and has a lot of fight left in him. Sure, there's a laundry list of issues people disagree with him on, but he's never backed down from a fight, popular or unpopular. If you haven't already, read McCain's recent Senate floor statement on the Levin-Reed amendment at Power Line News, then look at the comments. Conservatives may have their disagreements with McCain, but at least they know exactly where he stands.

Posted by: Patrick on July 22, 2007 03:44 PM
16. Stick a fork in THEM, period.

Bush's overall approval is at 25 percent.

Among independents approval is at 18 percent.

Yet 68% of Republicans just lurrve the guy.

That tells me people have run AWAY from Republicans as fast as possible and for damn good reason.

Yet what's the solution to this from Republicans like Viguerie? Go further to the right! I AGREE! YES PLEASE DO!

Posted by: John on July 23, 2007 03:59 PM
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