It's one of the slowest news weekends of the year, so let's take a look at an analysis of the Republican Presidential nomination contest worth perusing from pollster Scott Rasmussen. His thesis is the MSM coverage of the race thus far is off base. He analogizes the race is still in the spring training phase, with the regular season about to commence. Reasonable line of thinking, but given the sport, he's not quite at the right point of the season.

One can certainly argue the MSM has indeed has paid excessive attention to events like the Iowa Straw Poll and the debates. But let's be honest, they're covering the biggest "events" thus far in this race, which between the two parties competitive nomination races is the greatest political spectacle of this era. It's not that the MSM is saying this events are wildly important, they're just all there is to cover for now. Thus, the sometimes-too-breathless coverage.

Likewise, Rasmussen is a bit off in his assessment that the news coverage of these events hasn't caused movement in the race. He relies solely on his own polling which uses a fairly tight "likely voter" screen. Among that universe of comparatively tuned-in voters debates and straw polls aren't going to have much impact short of a major gaffe. Among the less tuned-in universes of "registered voters" and "adults" which are the staple of many national polls, however, there has been a noticeable shift. The RealClearPolitics average of such surveys after Ames shows Romney and Huckabee moving up. Meanwhile, the post-Ames polling in Iowa shows an even more sizeable jump, with Romney and Huckabee picking up obvious momentum in contrast to the non-contenders at the straw poll.

What all the means for the race itself is another issue. Rasmussen's broader point that voters are still in the process of tuning in is a fair one. Concurrently, the media is seeking out stories to cover, just to have something to cover, not necessarily because each story itself is immensely meaningful.

Take Mike Huckabee. Here's a candidate who is enjoying a splendid round of media coverage nationally, the aforementioned bounce in Iowa, and is getting a nice little bump in South Carolina too. Prior to Ames, however, he had demonstrated no ability to raise the money or organize the staff necessary to compete in a national campaign. Now, he's come out in favor of a national ban on smoking in public places, which is sure to get him in trouble with conservatives (especially the small-government enthusiasts in battlegrounds like New Hampshire). He's also spouting populist rhetoric on "fair trade", thus magnifying the discomfort economic conservatives like those at the Club for Growth have with him. The Club is likely to beat the tar out of Huckabee given its established record of investing large sums to attack unpalatable candidates with vigor (they started to do so with Huckabee even before his surprise showing at Ames). Add all it up and there is good reason to be mighty skeptical that Huckabee is anything more than a temporary boomlet in a long race. But there is precious little "new" to cover, especially in August, so for now he's getting more MSM attention than he can probably keep up with.

Now as to Rasmussen's analogy, the spring training comparison seems misplaced. A correlation with the All-Star break seems more apt, as casual fans begin to pay attention to successful teams as summer unfolds. Accordingly, here's one way to look at how the candidates stand:

Rudy Giuliani - the perennially strong team picked to finish well in the preseason is currently in the lead. The squad has its weaknesses in the midst of strength, but looks formidable if those weaknesses aren't exploited.

Mitt Romney - the little-known team experts said had the ingredients to succeed despite not being an established contender. The pieces have come together and the team is playing well, lurking behind the division leader. Can that trend continue through the second of half of the season now that they're not sneaking up on anyone?

Fred Thompson - the surprise of the season. No one predicted a strong showing, but a tremendous, unexpected run has lurched the team out of the pack and into contention. After a brief losing streak brought the team back to earth, questions are being raised about whether the roster has what it takes to succeed in the heated competition of a pennant race.

John McCain - the team whose best years are behind it. After a respectable start to the season the lack of new blood on the roster has hamstrung the team. While still taking the field and playing with class, poundings from the competition are becoming the norm rather than the exception.

Mike Huckabee - a thrilling 10-game winning streak has brought this lovable but flawed team to within theoretical reach of the leaders. No one thinks the team is actually ready to play with the big boys consistently though.

With that in mind, the "teams" are passing through the All-Start Break (Labor Day) to enter the 2nd half of the season, possessing a relatively clear idea of where their competition stands. Now, they'll all have to duke it out in a highly fluid race for top tier status heading into the playoffs (the primaries), all for the right to go to the L-O-N-G-E-S-T World Series (the general election) in history.

Sounds like fun. Might even beat watching the M's the way things have gone the last week too.