A survey of the latest news cycle and the talk of the blogosphere indicates many an Obama supporter who is whistling past Dixie while assessing last night's results in Pennsylvania.
Locally, Joni Balter leads the charge, explaining away Obama's loss to the plight of downtrodden, blue collar types. Nice theory, but as other analysis has noted, Obama's Keystone State weakness ran deeper than rural and economically depressed counties. For example, he lost Bucks and Montgomery counties to the north of Philadelphia. Relatively prosperous suburbs that have been trending purple or blue in recent election cycles are supposed to be Obama country.
Houston, we have a problem.
Yet, there's more. Check out Soren Dayton's analysis of the Philadelphia results. Dayton's broader thesis that McCain might put some parts of Philly in play come November is questionable, but the split in yesterday's primary is clear: Obama had problems whenever he couldn't achieve a critical mass of African-American and/or younger, college-aged voters.
The evidence is clear whether Obama fans want to see it or not. Moreover, with Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky still to come, there will be ample time for this narrative on Obama to develop further, even before the nomination is settled.
Posted by Eric Earling at April 23, 2008 10:07 PM | Email ThisYou do?
Posted by: Daniel K on April 23, 2008 10:23 PMI would add: Not only develop, but accelerate; i.e.:
Look at the county-by-county demographics of the above 3 states: In some cases they are even better for Clinton than PA was, and I would think odds are pretty good that she will win WV and KT by larger margins than she had in PA.
...which is how you guys ended up with McCain.
Posted by: Daniel K on April 24, 2008 12:04 AMPack well for Denver Convention goers.
A check list:
[X] List of "anarchist safe houses" in Denver
[X] Gas mask
[X] pepper spray
[X] bullet proof vest
[X] travel copy of "communist manifesto"
http://www.aim.org/aim-report/is-barack-obama-a-marxist-mole/
Pay special attention to the references to Frank Marshall Davis, the black communist who mentored Obama in Hawaii before he went to college. William Ayers is just the tip of Obama's Titanic-bound iceberg. See what Alan Keyes, who ran against Obama for Senate, has to say on the subject. Then combine that with Obama's other mentor, black liberation "theologian" (read communist) Jeremiah Wright, and the picture is indeed black.
Obama is not only unfit to serve, he's an enemy and threat to our nation and should be jailed for espionage and sedition.
Obama has time to recover prior to the fall elections, and hopefully McCain will stick to his word to address the issues. My concern is that the politics of old don't want to lose their power and will do whatever they can to destroy both parties candidates with negative advertising and scare tactics. This doesn't bring the country together. A lively debate on the issues will and will also draw out where people are really at, instead of concentrating on what they fear. Should we have more tax cuts for the rich or targeted exemptions for some in the middle class? Should we allow the Iraqi government all the leeway they want to get down to business or should we put it to them bluntly to get to business? In healthcare, do we trust Insurance Companies to care for their customers and potential customers, or their bottom line. If the latter, how do we as a society pay the cost for those who are uninsured, but still need coverage. Do we pay upfront, or through higher costs after the fact that are passed onto those who can pay?
Posted by: tc on April 24, 2008 08:19 AMWe still have more questions than answers from Barry Obama so until he's properly vetted, he should expect no quarter from us. "Can I just finish my waffle?" won't cut it, senator. Sorry.
His acolytes will just have to deal with this reality.
Posted by: Rick D. on April 24, 2008 08:43 AMhttp://www.renewamerica.us/search.php?q=obama
Keyes is also black.
Touche. But the real prize isn't the nomination. I suppose in a manner, Progressives win a bit either way, because McCain is just progressive-light. But, McCain is a better choice, even if for no other reason that the entertainment of continued Nutroots screaming about the Neocon hell, etc.
Either way conservatives will be fine, because productive people survive whether the government fails them or not.
Posted by: Jeff B. on April 24, 2008 10:19 AMI guess Cleveland doesn't worship her as much as she hoped.
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on April 24, 2008 10:23 AMIt sadly reminds me of the newly elected Patty Murray in response to her constituents overwhelming 'Vote NO' on Slick Willies first tax hike... 'The voters just don't understand'.
What hubris.
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on April 24, 2008 11:03 AMWeren't you part of the same group of Obamaphiles that were squealing last week about the last debate not being "issues" oriented?
Obviously if there were issues to be discussed that were'nt discussed at the last debate, logic would dictate that another debate (that senator Clinton welcomes) would be a venue to finally discuss these undiscussed "issues". I'm sure you would agree tc. No?
Oh the wicked web wee wiberals weave.
Posted by: Rick D. on April 24, 2008 12:14 PMHaha, sort of like when the former press secretary under the Clinton Administration said he would not ask Hillary about her Bosnia gaffe because he knew "she didn't want to talk about it"? Yeah, real issue oriented. =P
More debates the merrier as far as I'm concerned. I personally like the town hall ones better, real people asking real questions. They don't seem to do those on a national level anymore.
Wounded Obama Needs to End This - Mort Kondracke, Roll Call
Barack Obama Is the Nominee - Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal
McCain Appealing to Non-Partisans - Matt Bai, New York Times
Easing Clinton Out the Door - Thomas Schaller, Baltimore Sun
Obama Needs to Get off His Pedestal - Joan Walsh, Salon
Obama's True Electability - Jonathan Chait, New Republic
Obama's Clear Weakness Against McCain - Lanny Davis, Huffington Post
Wooing Independents - Gary Andres, Washington Times
The Real Bill Ayers Problem - Sol Stern, City Journal
Deepening Democratic Dilemma - Robert Novak, Chicago Sun-Times
Is Obama Ready for Prime Time? - Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal
Small Politics of Campaign Drags Obama Down - Joe Klein, Time
Superdelegates' Superdilemma - Christian Science Monitor
With New Cash, Clinton Moves to Next Contests - Washington Post
Clinton Gains on Obama's Tally - Wall Street Journal
For Indiana Voters, Talk of Change May Fall Flat - New York Times
And hells bells that's just ONE site!
Let the fun go on.
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on April 24, 2008 12:22 PMSome Questions for you tc:
I thought that Obama was ushering in a new kind of Politics and not the same old political hijinx. If he's just doing the same thing any other politician would do at this point and kick back, isn't he being the same kind of politician he claims his candidacy is running counter to?
Aren't the voters of the states you mentioned above entitled to a debate centered around issues in their state of WV,KY,OR,IN like voters in Pennsylvania were given?
The more Senator Obama claims he's a different kind of politician, the more he resembles the old guard of party politics, while Senator McCain is resembling what Obama's rhetoric is espousing.
Posted by: Rick D. on April 24, 2008 03:12 PMHe tried, but when you go up against this sort of thing you can only turn the other cheek so much. Your in it to win.
Besides, McCain doesn't have Mitt Romney nipping at his heels. If he did the race would be quite different. Romney accepted defeat gracefully despite the possibility he could have beaten McCain over the long haul. Clinton still thinks she can win it and is not stepping down anytime soon.
Yes, but he won Delaware and Chester Counties, which have traditionally been conservative as well (especially Chester). The difference lies in where there are more college students living. The difference between Clinton and Obama voters in that area is age. The difference between Obama voters and McCain voters will be wealth. The worse the economy gets, the worse McCain's chances will be.
You're continually making the mistake that in Pennsylvania, the more blue a county is, the more likely it should be going to Obama. This assumption is simply incorrect. In fact, the opposition correlation was true. The more blue a county was, the more likely it went for Clinton. Pennsylvania is not Washington.
Posted by: thehim on April 24, 2008 05:23 PMOh gee, primaries are in the spring when students are chomping at the bit to get out and obout; general elections are in the winter... soooo much easier to keep warm with a case of beer than to brave the wind, rain, snow and 'oh, my one little vote won't count anyway... hand me the bottle opener, willya?'.
Trying to keep that particular demographic focused and enthusiastic is like trying to direct a herd of sheep with ADD.... Just ask J. Francois.
If I can wade past the bong resin here for a second, let me point out that I have never at any point asserted there is any correlation between Washington & Pennsylvania. I'm mystified why you keep returning to that point.
Also, your assertion that the bluer the county the more likely it was to go for Clinton simply doesn't hold water based on the primaries thus far. I'll end up dealing with that point further as part of a post later tonight.
Posted by: Eric Earling on April 24, 2008 06:13 PMKerry and Gore did not even close to the same numbers as Sen. Obama does. Besides, Gore won the nationwide popular vote by over 500k, it was the 537 votes if Florida that cost him the election.
Trying to keep that particular demographic focused and enthusiastic is like trying to direct a herd of sheep with ADD
Sort of like trying to keep the GOP enthusiastic about McCain by questioning Obama's patriotism and letting people know he's secretly a Muslim. God forbid the GOP actually attack him on the issues like the economy and Iraq.