By now we've all heard the tales of the Barack Obama faithful, poo-pooing the notion that some demographic groups that showed hesitancy toward Obama in Democratic primaries will show similar rectitude come November. Today we saw hint of why and the mechanics of how some of those weaknesses may well unfold.
First, however, go back to some brief thoughts from Bill Bennett early last week, before Hillary Clinton bowed out of the nomination contest:
And thus the Democratic party is about to nominate a far left candidate in the tradition of George McGovern, albeit without McGovern's military and political record. The Democratic party is about to nominate a far-left candidate in the tradition of Michael Dukakis, albeit without Dukakis's executive experience as governor. The Democratic party is about to nominate a far left candidate in the tradition of John Kerry, albeit without Kerry's record of years of service in the Senate. The Democratic party is about to nominate an unvetted candidate in the tradition of Jimmy Carter, albeit without Jimmy Carter's religious integrity as he spoke about it in 1976. Questions about all these attributes (from foreign policy expertise to executive experience to senatorial experience to judgment about foreign leaders to the instructors he has had in his cultural values) surround Barack Obama. And the Democratic party has chosen him.
Obama boosters looking past his electoral deficiencies, while boosting his amazing, concurrent prowess in fundraising and grassroots mobilization, have underestimated the points Bennett makes.
Consider that Obama's own "bitter" comments and Father Pfleger's intemperate discussion of Hillary Clinton - the final straw that sent him for the Trinity United exits - were products of media coverage, not the supposed "Republican attack machine." Even the full trauma of Jeremiah Wright was much more a function of 4th Estate fascination with the pastor's mini-media tour rather than right-of-center concern with the content of some of Wright's past sermons (and Barack Obama's choice to sit in those pews for twenty years).
The point being, Obama still has several months in which general election voters are going to learn a lot more about him. For good or for ill, voters already have a core perception of John McCain that will be difficult to change beyond the margins. It's an entirely different scenario for Obama.
Precious little time has been spent thus far examining the Senate voting record that landed him the "most liberal Senator" tag. Furthermore, the dynamics of the Democratic primary meant that Obama's own left-of-center policy proposals received sparse dissection given the lack of variance with Clinton's counterparts.
These topics will be explored at greater length by the McCain campaign, the RNC, 3rd party groups, the media, and the blogosphere. At the same time, it is hardly likely that Jeremiah Wright, Father Pfleger, and Bill Ayers won't be making a return trip to a media cycle or two this fall.
It is difficult to understate the degree to which the idea that Obama is supposedly advancing some sort "new politics" will not always work out so well. One can't run for President as a nominee of a major party without maintaining significant ties to one's respective party establishment. The downside of that association came roaring to the fore today.
John McCain went after Obama VP vetter Jim Johnson for having ties that look unseemly in partnership with Obama's current campaign image. Readers of the Corner were already familiar with Johnson's potential PR liability, and know in addition that fellow VP selection team-member Eric Holder may turn out to be a massive problem as well given his active role in the abominable pardon-fest of the waning days of the Clinton administration (coverage here and here).
The baggage of VP vetters will ultimately prove to be of little consequence in November. Yet, stories like these not only serve as a steady drip-drip that eventually sullies a candidate's broader image, they invariably throw the campaign off-message. Today Obama was kicking off a two-week tour talking economic issues. Instead of taking it to McCain on an issue that remains a key vulnerability for the Republican candidate, Obama's campaign was playing defense.
Regular repetition of such a turn of affairs plays right into a key point from a now-much discussed McCain strategy briefing:
A slide at the 2:08 mark highlights the degree to which McCain is more aligned with the self-identified ideological views of the American electorate than is Obama. At the 8:59 mark is a slide offering the same filter for the narrower universe of key battleground states. McCain's alignment and Obama's dissonance in those states is even more profound than the national benchmark.
Now consider those slides represent current reality, before the issues and dynamics discussed above further shape the electorate's view of Obama. What are the odds the full vetting of an inexperienced, urban, liberal Senator will turn up even more warts than that which have already been discovered since the turn of the year?
It remains entirely possible that McCain could run a somewhat turgid campaign, fail to connect with voters on pocketbook issues, never excite his own conservative base, and generally be made to look like the past rather than the future. Yet, a betting man would be hard-pressed not to recognize that Obama's potential downside looks awfully substantial at this juncture. Today we got an expanded look into why. Surely, there is more to come.
Posted by Eric Earling at June 09, 2008 09:40 PM | Email This
Running an entire campaign on anti Bush sentiment isn't exactly sound judgement. Iraq numbers are getting better and non-talking head economists are predicting uptick in H2 08.
His birth certificate would clear this up, but the Obamamessiah steadfastly refuses to release it.
The full story is at Little Green Footballs.
Posted by: Matt from Olympia on June 9, 2008 10:21 PMAnd I believe it was Rush who today made a good point: Why is Obama claiming to be the candidate of "change", when he couldn't change the corrupt Chicago political machine, of which he is a product?????
Posted by: Michele on June 9, 2008 10:22 PMCarter is one exception to the rule, and even then, he only barely pulled it off. And even then, Ford only lost because he actually pardoned Nixon, and was therefore tied closely to him: which is exactly why the Democrats are lying about McCain being tied closely to Bush on every issue.
I'm betting that won't happen this time around either, but you have to admire their determination.
Posted by: Rick D. on June 10, 2008 06:53 AMIt is sorry state in D.C. as the collective patience of voters will be dramatically tested for the next generation.
Posted by: Snuffy on June 10, 2008 08:09 AMMcCain Criticizes CEOs' Pay in Speech to Small Business Group
``For too long, government has been the voice of big business, not small business,'' McCain said in a speech to the National Federation of Independent Business in Washington. ``Even when very large businesses violate their trust, they seem to be held to a different standard -- getting away with conduct that would leave any small-business owner broke.''
McCain told the group, which represents small- and medium- sized businesses, that ``something is seriously wrong when the American people are left to bear the consequences of reckless corporate conduct, while the offenders themselves are packed off with another $40 or $50 million for the road.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTYXQYPP.Euk&refer=home
Posted by: John Bailo on June 10, 2008 08:42 AM
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/10/obamas-hypocrisy-on-johnson-continues/
Barrack Obama, aka the Dalai Bama, last Tuesday June 3 as he won the nomination.
Come on Ronulans and McCain haters, I don't think the country can afford a four year backward twist while the Democrats screwup and hope your guy can get elected in 2012.
Posted by: swatter on June 10, 2008 10:00 AMWe now are down to two presidential candidates. One went to the Ivy League and Harvard Law School as a young man. The other spent years of his youth in a Vietnam Prisoner of War camp and suffered lifelong injuries. Guess which one whines more about his hardships?
Many observers believe that Barack Obama secured the liberal base of the Democratic party because he was antiwar from the beginning. But I think it's because he mastered the art of complaining and won over the Whine Caucus. Today the Democratic party is dominated by groups making claims of victim status -- blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans, unwed mothers, artists, pampered academics, environmental activists, the poor, the unemployed, animal rights activists, women, homosexuals. As Michael Crowley openly admits on Slate: "What does define and unify the [Democratic] party is a sense of victimhood."
OH YEAH, LET THE FUN BEGIN... AND ENJOY THE WHINE!
1- McCain is Bush's third term
2- Obama is Carter's second term.
Since 1980 I've never heard of "Carter's second term" used prior to this election- and it seems be sticking among pundits.
I would only ask both candidates to not tear each other down to build themselves up. I understand a contrast must be drawn - and that is necessary - but does so to highlight what you will do - not what the other can't do. There are enough pundits out there whose sole purpose in life is to define you - and you make it easier when you get off message.
I guess the big challenge the GOP will have with this comparison is that most younger people today have never quite been taught how absolutely of a terrible president Jimmy Carter was. They just know him as that nice guy that builds houses for Habitats for Humanity.
I see Carter on television being critical of Bush on middle-east issues, and I just want to scream at the TV "You idiot, how dare you even open your mouth about the subject when 90% of this mess is something you created!"
Posted by: johnny on June 10, 2008 01:25 PM"Would four years with no president really be that bad?"
Posted by: Ken on June 10, 2008 02:43 PMto highlight some of the "news" surrounding your candidate, john mcsame:
1. appears that he was for an estate tax before he was against it;
2. seems to have a lot more lobbyists getting free rides on the 'straight talk express bus' (including, of note, for your local business, lobbyists for airbus, on whose behalf mcsame intervened);
3. the right-wingers who have a permanent seat on faux news complaining about the 'lime green jello' appeal of mcsame: here's a sample:
here's a quote from bill kristol-meth:
"In any case, with the battle against Hillary Clinton behind him, everything seems to be going swimmingly for Obama. Meanwhile, the McCain campaign dog-paddles along. And almost every Republican I’ve talked to is alarmed that the McCain campaign doesn’t seem up to the task of electing John McCain."
4. and finally, in response to the 'carter's 2nd term' tag line:
Rasmussen, July 2007:
Jimmy Carter
Approve: 57
Disapprove: 34
George W. Bush
Approve: 41
Disapprove: 59
I don't particularly like McCain, but I predict he wins handily over the unqualified Marxist Obamessiah, who surrounds himself with racists, terrorists, and corrupt old-time pols. Heck, he may not even be a U.S. citizen, and therefore may not be constitutionally qualified.
Posted by: Matt from Olympia on June 10, 2008 04:05 PMSo basically, Eric, you are predicting that Obama is going to lose because he is a weak candidate and that is going to show in the coming months. I will make my own prediction, of similar quality: that the Bulls trade their number one pick to the Sonics for Donyell Marshall.
Let's see how these predictions turn out...
Posted by: Noble on June 10, 2008 04:40 PMChange Change Change, you got that right, Tax, Tax, Tax, Spend, Spend, Spend.
No Thanks, I'm not interested.
Posted by: GS on June 10, 2008 06:43 PM...and here I bet you thought those red flags/green flags on the door were supposed to idiot proof these places =)
Posted by: Rick D. on June 10, 2008 06:59 PMMcCain may not be a dynamic speaker, but he has the ability to think quickly on his feet and might do fairly well in the Town Hall meeting. He also needs to keep repeating that Obama will be Carter's second term. He also has altered his views on drilling for oil on land - good news. The enviro-Nazis have seriously crippled the energy industry and they need to get pushed out of the way for us to make any appreciable strides in lessening the reliance on OPEC oil and build more refineries and nuclear power plants.
Posted by: KS on June 10, 2008 08:46 PMMcCain may not be a dynamic speaker, but he has the ability to think quickly on his feet and might do fairly well in the Town Hall meeting. He also needs to keep repeating that Obama will be Carter's second term. He also has altered his views on drilling for oil on land - good news. The enviro-Nazis have seriously crippled the energy industry and they need to get pushed out of the way for us to make any appreciable strides in lessening the reliance on OPEC oil and build more refineries and nuclear power plants.
Posted by: KS on June 10, 2008 08:46 PMAs I said, America seems to forget what an idiot Carter was as President - mostly because the media doesn't remind people that things like the NEA, the fall of Iran into radical hands, etc. all happened on his watch.
I think Carter is a great spokesmodel for an organization that builds crackerbox houses, but I'd hate for the guy - or anyone that remotely thinks like him - to be President ever again.
Four years of Carter turned the tide of anti-GOP rhetoric post-Nixon and convinced US voters that Reagan was the right man for the job. (Maybe that's why he's popular.)
Posted by: johnny on June 11, 2008 09:13 AM