Sound Politics: The State of the Governor's Race

August 09, 2008

The State of the Governor's Race

Want more proof that Stuart Elway "could not accurately poll himself"?

Rasmussen's latest on the Evergreen State gubernatorial contest has Christine Gregoire up by four over Dino Rossi, 50% - 46%, and under the much-watched 50% marker if "leaners" are excluded.

That means of the six recent, major polls in the race, Elway's claim of a 16% lead for Gregoire is four-times larger than that of the next best poll for her. Warning sign of a gross outlier by chance?

Also of note, Rasmussen shows a steady tightening trend in the race. According to their surveys, Gregoire's lead has shrunk from 11% in May, 7% in June, 6% in July, to 4% now. Abstractly I wouldn't put a great deal of stock in that since many voters aren't yet tuned into the race. I note, however, that in that time, the fine folks at Evergreen Progress pumping out anti-Dino Rossi TV ads have spent nearly $1.6 million trying to soil his name (source here, warning: site takes time to load). And they don't appear to have moved the numbers in the race in any sort of substantive way.

Very considerate of them.

Posted by Eric Earling at August 09, 2008 11:27 AM | Email This

Comments

1. Thought you all might enjoy Friday's (somewhat related) headline story from The Naked Loon: Gregoire Gifted Yacht, Mansion by Tribes; Denies Conflict of Interest

Posted by: The Tim on August 9, 2008 12:14 PM

2. "That means of the six recent, major polls in the race, Elway's claim of a 16% lead for Gregoire is four-times larger than that of the next best poll for her. Warning sign of a gross outlier by chance?"

Why not run a test on the data yourself?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chauvenet%27s_criterion

Let us know how it comes out.

Posted by: tensor on August 9, 2008 02:06 PM

3. Personally, I think all other counties should refrain from posting their final tallies this time until after King county posts theirs.

They just seem to have a habit of misplacing ballots to later be miraculously found.

Posted by: LewWaters on August 9, 2008 02:29 PM

4. The Elway poll is an outlier. He may also be including a large number of illegal votes from King County. Rossi needs to come up with a definitive economic plan and spell it out for the undecideds. This is what he going to have to do to overcome the perceived 3-4 point deficit. His campaign has not quite made the sale yet - close but no cigar is how the public perceives it. He shouldn't take it for granted that Gregoire has failed, because a lot of people cling to status quo - good or not.

There are a number of skeptics, so the burden is on him right now - it will be interesting to see if Dino understands this - the difference between a win and a loss in November.

Posted by: KS on August 9, 2008 02:33 PM

5. "They just seem to have a habit of misplacing ballots to later be miraculously found."

If the ballots were legally cast by eligible voters, then it matters not at all if they were misplaced and found. Sadly, the GOP Party had to go to our State Supreme Court for this lesson, which some of them still have not learned...

Posted by: tensor on August 9, 2008 02:50 PM

6. Your right Tensor, how dare anyone challenge those registered voters that live in those little 4"x4" mailboxes..... I mean really, they are registered (by law) that they LIVE there. How dare they !

Posted by: Chris on August 9, 2008 03:05 PM

7. #3 - I agree, but it will take a unified effort by the other counties to bring down the corruption and force King County to read their totals first, which seems like a good remedy - in this election.

#5 - you spew nonsense - it was about the illegal votes that fouled up the 2004 election. The real answer is eternal vigilance on ACORN - the number one perpetrator of voter fraud.. There have also be over 400,000 names purged from the voter's rolls by the Secretary of State's office. This is an indicator of the corruption from within - time to surround ACORN and smash their nuts !

Posted by: KS on August 9, 2008 03:10 PM

8. #3 - I agree, but it will take a unified effort by the other counties to bring down the corruption and force King County to read their totals first, which seems like a good remedy - in this election.

#5 - you spew nonsense - it was about the illegal votes that fouled up the 2004 election. The real answer is eternal vigilance on ACORN - the number one perpetrator of voter fraud.. There have also been over 400,000 names purged from the voter's rolls by the Secretary of State's office. This is an indicator of the corruption from within - time to surround ACORN and smash their nuts !

Posted by: KS on August 9, 2008 03:10 PM

9. So tensor, if that is indeed the case, you should have no problem whatsoever with agreeing that no one county should report individually ahead of the final results statewide.

I think you shold call on Tim Eyeman to make that the NEXT peoples initiative.

Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on August 9, 2008 03:12 PM

10. #5 tensor-

Here is a link for you. I guess you missed it.

http://soundpolitics.com/archives/008195.html

Documented proof of how King County, dominated by Democrats, counted illegal votes and got away with it.

361 verified illegal votes, and this was in spite of Ron Simms ignoring court orders to turn over documentation after a legitimate request for the information.

Now, if an amateur sleuth can find this information, think of what an Attorney General that is not in the pockets of the Democrats would find!

Now, go back to your false spew.

Posted by: zDawg on August 9, 2008 03:39 PM

11. I'm happy the democrats are basing their polling on Elway.

They will get quite the surprise in November...

Posted by: gs on August 9, 2008 03:44 PM

12. As King County was shown, in court, not to have corruptly influenced the 2004 Governor's election, perhaps you're referring to the six Repub-- uh, GOP Party counties with larger per-capita discrepancies? Perhaps they inserted votes for Rossi? Or do you just not care about the integrity of our elections?

Posted by: tensor on August 9, 2008 09:45 PM

13. Tensor,

What part of "KC Elections don't know their Butt from a hole in the ground" don't you understand?

The rest of the State understands it, why can't you get a grip?

Posted by: Chris on August 9, 2008 10:27 PM

14. Elway continues to exist because such polling fills a valuable service to the left which greatly values collective affirmation. Like with Global Warming, even though the facts show it is not happening, nor caused by man, the left believes it can sell the lie if it is repeated often enough.

And remember the exit polls that showed Kerry ahead!

Posted by: Jeff B. on August 10, 2008 09:08 AM

15. "If the ballots were legally cast by eligible voters, then it matters not at all if they were misplaced and found. Sadly, the GOP Party had to go to our State Supreme Court for this lesson, which some of them still have not learned..."

IF.

But we KNOW that in fact there were illgally cast votes, don't we?

From teh Seattle PI:

At least eight people who died well before the November general election were credited with voting in King County, raising new questions about the integrity of the vote total in the narrow governor's race, a Seattle Post-Intelligencer review has found.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/206969_dead07.html

Posted by: pbj on August 10, 2008 11:50 AM

16. My prediction: the next Elway Poll will show a dramatic tightening in the race. Where is Pope to defend Stu?

Posted by: besquared on August 10, 2008 01:50 PM