October 03, 2008
Seattle ... A Solar America City!

KUOW reports on a government-funded non-profit which pays Seattle residents to install solar electric panels.

(Hint: Seattle has one of the lowest levels of sunshine of any major U.S. city)

The reporter spoke with Fiona Jackson, who spent $20,000 to install solar panels on her home (generating 1400 kwh of solar electricity this year). The marginal cost of electricity from Seattle City Light is $0.08/kwh, so assuming that last year had average sunshine and that the discount rate equals the electricity inflation rate, it would take Jackson about 178 years to recover her investment in solar equipment. Jackson admitted that "it wasn't a financial decison". She teaches business at Bellevue Community College, so I trust that she knows exactly how unfavorable the cost/benefit relationship really is.

Of course it's not merely a "financial decision". Those $20,000 represent consumption of environmental resources, and certainly a foregone opportunity to invest in other measures that could have much bigger environmental benefits. So it strikes me that, like many other schemes pitched by environmental fanatics, deploying solar power in Seattle is less about actually helping the environment as it is a kind of religious sacrifice ritual. I have no problem with anybody spending their own money on this sort of religious practice. But government subsidies for this? That seems to be a violation of the Establishment Clause.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at October 03, 2008 02:20 PM | Email This
Comments
1. As an owner of (admitted smaller) solar panels, I can also tell you they have a useful lifespan of about ten years. So what happens to these solar panels at the end of that time? Landfill?

How's this helping the environment again?

Posted by: jvon on October 3, 2008 02:19 PM
2. Yes, Solar power requires light from the sun. That daylight we see during the day is from the sun, this light can be converted into electiricty.

Funny that Stefan wants the Govt. to leave him alone but objects when people choose to install items that separate themselves from the Govt. owned power monopoly.

Posted by: Cato on October 3, 2008 02:25 PM
3. The marginal cost cited isn't a fair number. The power generated in 2007 was cheap because it was sourced from Dams already built and free fuel. What happens when demand outstrips supply? Something that will definitely happen given our population growth rate (due to immigration). We don't have any rivers left to dam, so the marginal cost of electricity will go up.. significantly.

If people want to offset that growth in demand by installing solar panels, more power to them- no pun intended.

Posted by: hi on October 3, 2008 02:29 PM
4. I don't think anyone has a problem with someone installing solar panels if they want, even in Seattle. It's that government subsidy thingy.

BTW Stefan, please rid this place of David Matthews (again). He's back, and polluting this blog.

Posted by: Palouse on October 3, 2008 02:31 PM
5. Oh, and as for, "religious sacrifice ritual." If wanting clean air requires some sort of religious sacrifice ritual, then sign me up.

I have no interest in building mercury spewing coal power plants near my family.

Does that really make me religious..?!?

Posted by: hi on October 3, 2008 02:33 PM
6. Cato -- I said I don't object to people installing solar panels, only to an economically foolish government subsidy.

Please go find yourself a bathroom wall to scribble on and leave the rest of us alone to have an intelligent conversation.

Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on October 3, 2008 02:37 PM
7. @5: Stefan does have a point in that it makes less sense to use solar panels here than in other places. In the Ohio Valley, for example, reducing electricity use makes much more sense to control air emissions from coal-fired power plants. Here in the Pacific Northwest where a major source of power is hydroelectric it makes much less sense. (Except in peak periods, but I would hazard a guess that if you did the calculations, the impacts would be modest at best.)

@6: I'm actually not too far off from you on this... but I'm waiting for an alternative from you that you can present to people that would reduce their electricity use and environmental impact. I mean, I absolutely agree with you in principle, but you're only providing half the argument here. Where can dirty hippies, eco-liberals and conservatives find common ground with issues of air quality and conservation?

Or is your answer to just do nothing and expect someone else to do it? (And just stating that the environment is just fine the way it is doesn't count.)

Posted by: demo kid on October 3, 2008 02:54 PM
8. When General Motors and others come out with their plug in cars, watch the Coal fired plants start firing up all over H to support them.

They all seem to be based on either plugging into the grid (like it can handle everyone with an electric car)

Of course no Nuke Power, especially in this god forsaken state.

Posted by: gs on October 3, 2008 02:58 PM
9. demo kid - you better change your nic because nobody can take you seriously.

Posted by: Crusader on October 3, 2008 03:01 PM
10. @9: Answer the question, or shut up. I don't have time for your whiny little crap.

Posted by: demo kid on October 3, 2008 03:09 PM
11. gs - Market forces will make the government strealine the nuke plant process. The urgent need for capacity will force Congress to act and Obama will sign it.

Posted by: Crusader on October 3, 2008 03:15 PM
12. Actually, since the panels don't have anything remotely like a 178-year lifespan, the amortization period is more accurately characterized as "Never". Heck, if the commenter who claimed a 10-year useful life is anywhere near correct, then even an immediate tenfold increase in electric rates wouldn't get us to the breakeven point.

Posted by: Kirk Parker on October 3, 2008 03:15 PM
13. @Cato

Every solar panel installed in Seattle, is a solar panel that can't be installed in Phoenix. If solar is worth doing in Seattle, it is ten times more worthwhile in Arizona. There is no sense in doing solar up here till every roof top in the desert is covered with them.

Posted by: Joe on October 3, 2008 03:16 PM
14. Only 178 years!

Posted by: Michele on October 3, 2008 03:26 PM
15. Another thing about solar panels is you have to keep them clean. So many people put them on roofs not easily accessible.

PS--
This is yet another reason (Reason #1,342,675,893,047) why I call them
LEFTIST PINHEADED KLOWNS!!

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on October 3, 2008 03:28 PM
16. @15: You haven't provided any reason why you're not a right-wing "pinhead klown". Do you just sit and whine all day, or do you actually *do* anything to make a difference?

Posted by: demo kid on October 3, 2008 03:51 PM
17. This idiocy brought to you by the same people who do not count hydro-electric power as "renewable energy".

There is a reason why we call leftists loons. In fact there are lots of reasons.

Posted by: Bill Cruchon on October 3, 2008 04:03 PM
18. Hi @5: How's your interest in mercury spewing light bulbs near your family?

Posted by: katomar on October 3, 2008 04:04 PM
19. katomar - don't bother. These pinhead klowns can't think their way out of a paper bag.

Posted by: Crusader on October 3, 2008 04:13 PM
20. This is much like buying an overpriced Prius over a Hybrid Honda model.

It's about status and bragging to their friends.

Posted by: Chris on October 3, 2008 04:16 PM
21. @7 solar may make more sense in other places, but that doesn't mean it makes no sense here. The truth is it makes sense everywhere in the lower 48 states and hawaii.

I already acknowledged that we have hydropower. Why did you ignore my point that the hydropower capacity is limited, but demand for power is not. In fact it is growing rapidly in the NW due to migration (difficult to control) and immigration (which is easier to control if there were any political will-power).

Posted by: hi on October 3, 2008 04:24 PM
22. @7 solar may make more sense in other places, but that doesn't mean it makes no sense here. The truth is it makes sense everywhere in the lower 48 states and hawaii.

I already acknowledged that we have hydropower. Why did you ignore my point that the hydropower capacity is limited, but demand for power is not. In fact it is growing rapidly in the NW due to migration (difficult to control) and immigration (which is easier to control if there were any political will-power).

Posted by: hi on October 3, 2008 04:24 PM
23. Katomar - i'm not interested. thanks for asking. Do you have any topical questions?

Posted by: hi on October 3, 2008 04:25 PM
24. Wringing government intervention out of the energy market place would be an interesting exercise.

Where do we start?

With oil?, with natural gas?, hydroelectric generation?, wind, solar, biofuels? conservation?

If the marginal cost of power is eight cents a kilowatt hour, we'll never see nuclear power.

I don't think it is unreasonable to subsidize start up energy if it leads to a self-sustaining market in a reasonable period of time.

178 year payback - that is never. But then, when heat-pumps were first introduced their payback calculated out to occur just a bit further out than their lifespan too. Creating a market demand, then private sector initiative, made them work.

Posted by: BA on October 3, 2008 04:41 PM
25. Funny that I ask a serious question, and the wingnuts fall silent. Better to whine about liberals than discuss solutions, eh?

Posted by: demo kid on October 3, 2008 04:49 PM
26. Its not that we don't have any more streams to dam to produce electricity - we have many. Its just that we do don't have any streams that environmentalists will "allow" us to dam.

Hydroelectric dams don't have to be on major rivers with salmon runs. Only big ones do. There are plenty of mountain valleys way above the salmon runs that could be used to build s network of hydroelectric generators capable of providing power for many centuries. As a secondary benefit they could provide water for people, fish and agriculture.

Its all about choices. About weighing costs, benefits and trade-offs.

Posted by: deadwood on October 3, 2008 04:56 PM
27. dumbo kid - once you call people "pinhead klowns" nobody wants to talk to you. Read Dale Carnegie's "How to win friends and influence people". Buy a clue.

Posted by: Crusader on October 3, 2008 04:58 PM
28. Deadwood, are you really sure about remaining dam sites that are feasible?

Plenty of mountain valleys to fill with water?

I don't know about that, but looking at existing dams that were built just for irrigation and seeing if they could be retrofitted might make sense.

Are there significant drainages in this state that have available water rights or purchasable water rights for many additional dams?

Posted by: BA on October 3, 2008 05:05 PM
29. You nailed it Deadwood. It's not whether we can build more dams, it's all about the left stopping any kind of progress whatsoever. The minute we want to do anything that will benefit all of us the left unleashes their armada of environmental lawyers and stops it cold.

Posted by: Bill Cruchon on October 3, 2008 05:49 PM
30. Just another "feel good" Liberal wrong headed idea.....

Posted by: Norm on October 3, 2008 05:50 PM
31. Just another "feel good" Liberal wrong headed idea.....

Posted by: Norm on October 3, 2008 05:50 PM
32. Just another "feel good" Liberal wrong headed idea.....

Posted by: Norm on October 3, 2008 05:50 PM
33. Jeez Demo you have to give somebody a chance to log-on. I think that hippies, eco-wackos and conservatives can find common ground once the leftists get off the "planet is dying" BS. That would be a good start.

I'll say this, this whole subject has become so politicized and there are so many special interests feeding at the trough that nothing constructive can get done. This is what happens when the government gets involved choosing the winners and losers. Look no further than the Fanny and Fred meltdown for a good example. I'll tell you this, shoveling zillions of taxpayer $$ into corn so we can have more air polluting oxides produced and worse gas (10 to 15 percent) mileage with more expensive food (world wide) is not the right way to do it. Look at CFLs. They contain mercury and printed circuit boards that need to be disposed of. And that doesn't include the extra carbon producing manufacturing that they require. I did a calculation a year or two ago on the number of CFLs in use if everybody converted to them (nationwide it's HUGE and I was conservative in my numbers) and the amounts of mercury generated. The freaking cure is worse than the disease! Breaking one of those things in your kids room should generate a environmental spill response by law. How is that a good thing? A whole massive recycling culture would have to be constructed with no guarantee that people would even use it. What would that cost in carbon to save a few kilowatts? See what I mean?

Solar power up here is a joke. We already went through all of this in the 1970s. A 20K cost with a 150 year payback and a 10 year life span is foolish beyond the extreme. With number like that, the payback would never arrive. Imagine how many other things that could be done with that money. I'm all for conservation but it has to make free-market sense at least. Wind farms kill birds (raptors particularly, the species that can least afford the deaths). Tide generators would probably kill fish, maybe even whales. Forget the unreliability at this point. Nuke is the most practical now that the technology has progressed. But Nuke will never happen because the eco-wackos will never let it happen just like they haven't in the past. Clean coal is good by just like Biden says "No coal here ever." Bio-fuels are good but require expensive heaters and filters just to operate in our mild climate. There is very little that hasn't been tried before (like I said, in the 70's) and the reason they aren't being used now is that they didn't work then and they don't work very well now.

I think that the eco-wackos have to realize that mankind uses resources to create and live. Just like any other animal in the biosphere. It is a growing economy where all boats are lifted. There is nothing wrong with conservation because true conservation saves money without subsidy but, like I said before, the radicalization of the subject has screwed us all. We should all be light on the planet as we can be but creating massive bazillion a year federal bureaucracies the eat up massive amounts of GDP while beating everybody over the head just because they live is not the answer.

Posted by: G Jiggy on October 3, 2008 05:50 PM
34. Yet, Washington (and Oregon) lag in the establishment of hydrogen fueling stations.

It would be far better for WA to start building H2 fueling stations for cars like the BMW Hydrogen 7 and Honda FCX (fuel cell) as a way to fight pollution than installing solar cells.

Those are better situated in Eastern Washington where they can be used to generate Hydrogen for transport via pipeline and truck to the Puget Sound!

Posted by: John Bailo on October 3, 2008 07:00 PM
35. While we are on the subject of alternative energy sources, I'd like to propose that we install a methane run electric generator in the office of Mayor Nipples. As huge as he is and the diet that he consumes, I'm quite sure that this facility could genderate 1400 kwh of electricity from his flatulence. The unit could just "breath in" the air from his office as it is highly methane saturated at all times; well, at all times when he is in it, which is not often because he loves to be driven around the city is his SUV or limo. (But maybe those could be run on his methane production as well).

Posted by: BananaLand on October 3, 2008 09:31 PM
36. If she was dumb enough to make such a poor economic decision, particularly as a business professor, then punishment has already been meted out as a voluntary idiot tax. But students at BCC should probably be warned of such decisions before taking a course from her. I mean what if a civil engineering professor at BCC built a house and it collapsed due to bad engineering design. Wouldn't that be cause for concern?

It's just like buying a Prius instead of a high mileage conventional engine sub compact. This high additional cost for the batteries and extra electronics, which will never be recouped in gas savings, etc. are for the privilege of bragging to one's liberal friends and displaying to everyone else that you are a financial idiot.

It's too bad that taxpayers have to help fund such idiocy. At very least, instead of handing subsidies to individuals, the money could be spent on a larger statewide plant that would be located East of the cascades where there is much more sunlight. That might actually do some good. But this is government. When has efficiency ever been a concern?

It's not about results on the left. It's just about feeling. Hope and change feel good, but they don't produce baseload energy or efficient solar panels that have a reasonable ROI for Seattle's climate.

Posted by: Jeff B. on October 3, 2008 11:03 PM
37. [i]Those are better situated in Eastern Washington where they can be used to generate Hydrogen for transport via pipeline and truck to the Puget Sound![/i]

Sorry John @ 34, transporting hydrogen isn't a good idea. The hydrogen atom is VERY small and and because of this, a conventional pipeline that carries liquids wouldn't work sufficiently well. You can build them but they are going to be much more expensive. Do you REALLY want trucks transporting liquid hydrogen at 5000 psi out on the roads? Hydrogen needs to be produced near the filling station, as transporting it isn't very efficient.

Posted by: Dik on October 4, 2008 08:44 AM
38. Recall how the vote went for the renewable portfolio standard in WA, I-937? Solar is one of the main energies being promoted as part of this standard. Wind, biomass, etc are included. Only incremental hydro and run of the river hydo were included. None of our 70% of genertation that is currently hydro was considered. Salmon mitigation was the reason. Endangered species one can buy by the pound at Pike place... brilliant.
So when you think about current marginal costs in Seattle, and a 178 year pay back, think about the impact on rates when utilities with 25,000 customers or more will have to provide 15% of the electicity from renewable energy by 2020.
One fact that will help is that our rates will nearly double by 2020 if I-937 is implemented fully so pay backs will drop to only 89 years, priceless!
Lastly many are putting renewable energy ahead of energy efficiency. Any candidates we know pushing this... well it makes allot of sense to build renewable energy and significantly higher costs than conventional to power inefficient systems. Double priceless,,,,

Posted by: Remember I-937 on October 4, 2008 11:52 AM
39. Maybe we're in such a mess typically it seems because our public discussions about just about everything are rarely grounded in fact - but instead in rhetoric and talking points.

I-937 was(is) an act related to NEW energy resources. It recognized our legacy of hydroelectric projects and includes efficiency improvements, and tapping the flow of irrigation waters, that result in more hydroelectric generation as qualifying as renewable.

I wonder, but don't know, if by 2020 we won't have utilities in this state that remain 100% sustainable in their energy use as we demand energy in excess of what the legacy dams produce.

I just installed a more sophisticated thermostat in my house and the payback appears to be two months.

I think conservation is really the answer to our energy demands, starting with maintaining flat energy demand while we grow, then reducing our energy costs further. Why add a solar panel (with the resultant capital cost, material use, maintenance) to provide perhaps 5% of your energy when a 5% energy reduction is probably easy to obtain and a much cheaper capital expenditure?

Seattle, and I suspect most utilities in this state, have gone from higher than national average energy use per customer to lower than the national average over the last decade.

I understand it's fashionable to say "dril, drill drill" and as we consume a quarter of the world's oil and sit on perhaps 4% of the remaining world reserves it might benefit us in the short-term - but what if we used less instead?

Posted by: BA on October 4, 2008 12:43 PM
40. but what if we used less instead?

That's disingenuous, mr/ms BA. You are welcome to use as little as you like, beginning today. But your obvious hope is to prevent your fellow citizens, by political action, from making their own decisions on that energy use. "Choice" must extend beyond whose gonads get entangled with whose, and whether to abolish the results of the entanglement.

I rather like the labor-saving effects of mechanized travel (on MY choice of routing and scheduling) and mass production of the items which I find available in current living in the US. I would not elect to arbitrarily undergo the reduced mobility and higher costs which those political actions would force on the citizens. Quite possibly, numbers of other voters feel the same way.

Posted by: Insufficiently Sensitive on October 4, 2008 04:19 PM
41. How about we make a list of Conservation Ideas?
Here's mine: fewer street lights. Using half the lights around town would really reduce a lot of power usage.

Posted by: ljm on October 4, 2008 05:18 PM
42. "Insufficiently Sensitive" are you intending to be insufficiently thoughtful too?

When I say use less energy, I mean use less energy - that doesn't mean drive less, heat your home less, sit in the dark, store your milk out on the porch in the winter, etc.

It means use less energy.

Our furnaces and air-conditioners are significantly more efficient in their use of energy to produce the same output as they were not too many years ago. Electric motors, lighting and building controls provide for the less energy use for the same outcome than before. Our cars, trucks, trains and planes can travel further on a particular amount of fuel than in the past.

Who'd have thought, some humans are clever.

An expert in the field of energy use once said that any energy saving strategy for Americans had to take into account that air-conditioning and cold beer could not be messed with.

I imagine that's what you're worried about.

Your presumption that I mean for you to use less energy in a manner that affects your lifestyle is a reflection of your own insecurity, not any aspiration I have.

Posted by: BA on October 4, 2008 11:36 PM
43. BA...who have you been talking too? I was part of I-937 and it did not recognize our existing hydro base. The 15% by 2020 was an arbitrary number set out by politically motivated members and those that will benefit the most, special interest. So get in with the group but do not mislead the masses, we have enough uniformed people doing that now.

As for energy efficiency improvements, the argument continues today which is first, conserve or build renewable resources, this again is due to politics and special interests, not common sense!

you said, "tapping the flow of irrigation waters, that result in more hydroelectric generation as qualifying as renewable."
-WRONG AGAIN, only incremental hydro, or run of the river, meaning NO NEW DAMS! Incremental hydro is so scarce it will have little affect on making the goals. This also relates back to the above special interests.

"I wonder, but don't know, if by 2020 we won't have utilities in this state that remain 100% sustainable in their energy use as we demand energy in excess of what the legacy dams produce."

Do you have any idea what this would cost? If a hydro dam produces 1000 MW's for example SCL's Boundry Dam, then you would need 3000 MW's of wind, and 8000 MW's of solar to accomplish the same output. As the costs for both are substantially more one to one, then add 3 to 8 times the cost to replace firm energy with non firm. Most don't understand this issue which is part of the problem. So by 2020 utility rates will be more than twice what we pay now, more than likely even more!

ou said: "I just installed a more sophisticated thermostat in my house and the payback appears to be two months."

While I more than support programmable thermostats, even helped develop them for Honeywell, there is no way it was a 2 month pay back, even if you shut everything off for 2 months. Again please do not mislead the public, 2 years maybe, not 2 months,, impossible!

You said "I think conservation is really the answer to our energy demands, starting with maintaining flat energy demand while we grow, then reducing our energy costs further."

The only way even with conservation you can reduce energy use and maintain a flat demand is in a recession or depression, meaning no more "growth" Power, which is an equation made up of energy and capacity are two different things, energy, kWh, reflects energy efficiency, capacity, KW/demand is different. In the Pacific NW only recently have load shedding or demand reduction programs caught on. We are a long way away from these as it requires considerable investments in the infrastructure from Electricity Distribution, load controls, smart meters , price signals and oh yes your programmable thermostat to take advantage of price signals, then you may see a 2 month pay back, but I doubt it.

Why add a solar panel (with the resultant capital cost, material use, maintenance) to provide perhaps 5% of your energy when a 5% energy reduction is probably easy to obtain and a much cheaper capital expenditure?

Finally spot on old chap!

Seattle, and I suspect most utilities in this state, have gone from higher than national average energy use per customer to lower than the national average over the last decade.

No actually the first power plan in 1981 kicked off energy conservation, we have been in this realm for many years!

I understand it's fashionable to say "dril, drill drill" and as we consume a quarter of the world's oil and sit on perhaps 4% of the remaining world reserves it might benefit us in the short-term - but what if we used less instead?

Agree, and switch to natural gas for the next 20 years until we can perfect the next generation of renewable energy.

Sorry to correct you, you are not alone, 98% of the people think the same way, and most work with me in the industry, which is scary!

Posted by: Remember I-937 on October 5, 2008 10:18 AM
44. Hmmmm. I believe there's even less sunshine in Germany but they have a very aggressive solar energy policy with a well-thought out set of incentives that encourage effective deployment.

Posted by: YLB on October 5, 2008 11:27 AM
45. YLB..
Gerumany subsidizes 2/3rds of the installation of solar, and their rates are 25-30 cents per kWh.
Put these numbers into our marginal costs and we are at 80 cents a kWh.

Not what I believe to be cost effective or even sensible.

Look folks solar panels in space beaming microwaveable energy back to earth are being studied, possibly some technology from these efforts might make sense, but our rays where ever you live are filtered so much that solar is not currently an affordable option.

Posted by: Remember I-937 on October 5, 2008 04:40 PM
46. "Remember..." I don't claim to be an expert and it appears that you may be, but I'm not getting a couple of things, plus my comments.

1. A utility with 100% sustainable energy in 2020. If there is an existing utility that sources 100% of their energy from hydro, and their growth is less than 20%, do they have to substitute "new" sustainable sources to meet the 20% rule? (I understand that existing hydro is by definition left out of the mix - I read the law).

2. There is language in the law that provides for allowing for increasing the efficiency of existing hydro and utilizing irrigation flows for generating power.

3. I used Seattle City Light as my source for statistics regarding energy use from the last decade...couldn't find quickly better information that looked further back.

4. My thermostat - inexpensive, just a "time clock" type, and with no other changes except a slightly cooler average temperature last month my energy use from last year dropped as I said.

Finally, why do you believe that energy demand can only decrease or remain flat with a recession or depression? Are you saying that there is insufficient room in our creativity to work efficiencies in devices faster than our natural growth based on population?

Posted by: BA on October 5, 2008 06:10 PM
47. This ECO Green stuff is nonsense. Solar panels in the wicked western west of Washington?? Cost to benefit does not makes sense. I'm going to leave my carbon footprint, much cheaper.

Posted by: Harry on October 6, 2008 09:00 PM
48. Facts are funny things: Fact-PV modules as built today have and will last way past the 25 year warranty-about 50 years at the least in Seattle. Fact-Due to the long daylight hours and sun azimuth in summer, PV in Seattle can equal Phoenix and surpass the midwest in solar insolation (I used to live in Illinois and it's very cloudy in summer). Fact-No hydroelectric project ever built (or nuclear plant) using concrete will last past 50 years without serious maintenance and possible replacement as concrete looses its structural integrity after 50 years and is useless as a structural element under stress after 100 years. Fact-If Seattle, the Northwest in general and the country as a whole do not address power generation, in direct reference to climate change, this little meltdown on Wall Street will seem like a cakewalk, and all these things you people seem to find important-water, power, food, fuel, payback, ROI, and transportation will be a thing of the past. So deal with it-it is neither right wing or left wing, but survival of the species.

Posted by: Bill on October 7, 2008 07:36 AM
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