October 31, 2008
Tactical Differences in Independent Group Spending

There is a significant contrast between the work of the pro-Rossi independent expenditures by the RGA and BIAW/"It's Time for a Change" versus that of Evergreen Progress and a couple last minute Democratic heavyweights. To be fair, there are some other independent groups spending money, but the size and scope of their efforts doesn't compare to those listed above.

Evergreen Progress's approach has been almost exclusively via TV. Less than $100,000 of their resources have gone towards direct mail. The overwhelming share of their money spent on voter contact has been on TV, with a sprinkling of radio. The additional recent expenditures by AFSCME and the NEA only magnify that emphasis on brute force message dissemination via broadcast media.

Obviously, the RGA and BIAW/"It's Time for a Change" are on TV (and the latter on radio at times), but that's not all. PDC filings show the RGA has spent nearly $100,000 on Internet advertising, which is no small chunk of change in that medium, and nearly $70,000 in newspaper advertising. The organization has also sent seven pieces of direct mail, four of which arrived before voters received mail-in ballots.

BIAW has likewise invested significantly in mail, including at least four statewide mailers thus far, which have largely been coming since mail-in ballots arrived. That has bee supplemented by newspaper ads in a host of small town newspapers (often weeklies).

Of greatest note, the mail pieces from both Rossi-supporting groups are going to a specific targeted universe. BIAW is mailing a consistent group of slightly over 559,000 households. Concurrently, six of the seven RGA mailers cost right around $160,000 each, implying the same sort of repeated efforts to reach a pre-selected group of persuadable voters.

Bluntly, both pro-Rossi groups obviously took the time to identify their target audiences and they're working to reach them in a multitude of mediums. In contrast, the pro-Gregoire groups appear to have pulled out the shotgun to spread the message far and wide in hopes that it sticks in the right places.

Who knows what that means for Election Day, but is an interesting look at divergent ways to reach voters.

Caveat: the one wildcard in such campaign expenditures not by the individual campaigns is the state parties. The way PDC reporting works, we can get a clear picture of spending by political committees before Election Day than that from the candidate's campaigns or the parties, all of which obviously have their own voter contact programs in place through assorted forms of communication.

UPDATE: RGA mailer info clarified.

Posted by Eric Earling at October 31, 2008 07:30 AM | Email This
Comments
1. I really like the BIAW idea of ads in local small town papers & weeklies.
People who receive these REALLY tend to study that newspaper from cover to cover...as opposed to the Seattle Times, PI, Olympia and Tacoma News Tribune...where readers tend to skim thru.

This manuever could prove the difference as it emphasizes local, home-grown businesses supporting Rossi...friends & neighbors.

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on October 31, 2008 07:54 AM
2. Last night after Survivor and before CSI, we were hit with four anti-Rossi ads right after another. Two were from the State employees union. I mean how do you counter that? Four misstatements are too hard to counter with the 30 second electorate.

Posted by: swatter on October 31, 2008 08:48 AM
3. Swatter- if the 5th one was the diaper commercial, the previous 4 would be negated ;-)

Posted by: Andy on October 31, 2008 09:37 AM
4. When is Judge Kallas up for re-election, btw? She may be in her last term, and have to look for a new job in the not-too-distant future.

Posted by: Michele on October 31, 2008 09:37 AM
5. The topic strikes me as being symbolic of the contrasting parties involved. Being a conservative, I tend to believe other conservatives to be analytical with a predisposition toward efficiency and efficacy. The dems, on the other hand, try to appeal to hoi polloi with emotion through the least common denominator. Hope! Change! On the fives!

Posted by: scott158 on October 31, 2008 10:05 AM
6. Michele @ #4

Judge Kallas was up for reelection in 2008, but sailed through during the primary because no one filed against her.

Posted by: Camille on October 31, 2008 10:13 AM
7. Thanks, Camille. I hope somebody challenges her next time, because she willingly became an enabler and battering tool for political hacks. We deserve better than that.

Posted by: Michele on October 31, 2008 10:41 AM
8. I agree with Mr. Cynical @1 above, small town newspapers are read from cover to cover, having grown up in one such town, we kept our copy of the Whidbey News Times on the coffee table each week until the next one showed up.

Another interesting expediture of note this year are telephone banks. Our daughter is newly registered and is voting in her first presidental election. To date we have received 10 seperate phone calls, many specifically asking for her; and 9 have been on behalf of democratic candidates. Only one republican phone call, from the Reichert campaign, (probably because I gave him money). So 9 - 1, Dem verse Rep in phone calls in a (still) fairly Republican area.

Posted by: The Duke on October 31, 2008 04:17 PM
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