Some of you may disagree with my gloomy prediction.  And to those who disagree, I make this offer:  If you think Obama will be a success as president — as I hope but do not expect — tell us why.  Send me an essay telling us why you expect Obama to succeed and, subject to some limits, I'll publish it here.  

Since I wish to encourage Obama supporters to accept this challenge, I am closing this post to comments.  But if I don't receive any essays in the next week or so, I'll put up an open post so all of you can discuss the question.

(About a thousand words should be enough.  Your post should be family friendly and should make a logical argument, supported by evidence.  For instance, an argument that Obama is not George W. Bush is not an argument that Obama will succeed, though that argument may good enough for sites where logic is less valued.  Answering my points one by one would be a good approach, since that would allow readers to compare the two posts directly, but feel free to choose another approach.)