Here's the official prediction.
King County elections officials hold firm to a projection of 33 percent turnout, though they concede that might be overly optimistic.
What's yours?
(And, if you like, feel free to predict winners, as well.)
Posted by Jim Miller at August 18, 2009 12:40 PM | Email ThisThe 11 voters in the STEVENS PASS SEWER DISTRICT are at 0%. :-)
But whatever happens Darcy Burner must be defeated. She might vote for cap and trade.
http://tinyurl.com/kcexecelectpri09
Posted by: Steve on August 18, 2009 01:03 PMWe hate Susan Hutchinson here!
http://soundpolitics.com/archives/013001.html
Posted by: CnR on August 18, 2009 01:07 PMWhat matters is HOW the Votes are Counted!
What matters is WHO counts the votes.
So, just figure out who the Director of Elections wants to win, and then perhaps you can guess.
Just by voting you support the facade. This isn't Democracy.
You know how in some third world elections they have UN inspectors monitor the election counting. Not a fan of the UN but in this case perhaps I can make an exception.
Posted by: Beth on August 18, 2009 01:17 PMA man was on the phone, presumably with his wife, "I thought the polls were going to be open today, we didn't get anything in the mail".
This guy didn't look like a flake, either. He was maybe in his 40's and appeared as though he could be your insurance agent.
How anyone could not know by now that King County switched to all-mail voting is a mystery to me.
By the way, we both voted for Susan Hutchison, whom we have had the pleasure of meeting. If she wasn't running we probably would have voted for Goodspaceguy.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 18, 2009 02:10 PMSomething interesting may happen here today though. Polls indicate that the proposed Seattle tax on grocery bags may go down to defeat. That seems to go against Seattle's liberal demographics.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 18, 2009 02:21 PMThe special interest groups and the various loopy bills are always placed in the primary election where turnout is low in the general population.
Is that how to obtain the best representation of the "people's will"?
Posted by: Bart Cannon on August 18, 2009 02:26 PMI swear more Americans know who will be on the next Dancing With The Stars than know who is Vice President, (on second thought, maybe that's a good thing). We take our liberty for granted.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 18, 2009 03:18 PMThe person that owned my house ELEVEN YEARS AGO still faithfully gets ballots and voter pamphlets delivered to my address even though I've repeatedly taken pains to communicate to the post office that she no longer lives at this address and has moved out of state. (I have to assume that this information would make its way back to the elections office.)
Why hasn't her name been deleted from the voting rolls? My only guess is that it's because she was a longtime Boeing employee and enthusiastic union member. (Something she told me when we met during the real estate transaction.)
I've always wanted to see if she continues to vote in each election (or if someone else votes for her) but am not sure how to do this. I've also wondered how to best document this refusal to delete a non-voter so that it could be publicized as yet another example of King County inefficiency.
Anyone got suggestions for me?
Posted by: johnny on August 18, 2009 03:37 PMIronic how, there at the Renton elections center, I was asked for ID prior to voting, but if by mail verification is only by a cursory, subjective glance at a signature. One only wonders how many residences have hundreds of 'voters', or if they cleansed the rolls of P.O. box registrations?
"They will have to pry the touch screen from my cold, dead hands!"
Posted by: yaddacubed on August 18, 2009 03:40 PMI've seen primary and "special election" turnouts as low as 17%.
I say a minimum turnout of 50% for EVERY election.
Why isn't something like that the obvious law in this city, county and state?
Could it be that it would be counterproductive for our leading special interest? Government.
Posted by: Bart Cannon on August 18, 2009 03:43 PMBe sure to select the county, input your address, and parse your street, street type (no punctuation), and pre/postfix (N, SW, etc.).
You must call the elections office AND return mail as 'Not At This Address' such that it is returned to the bloviated, incompetent and crooked bureaucracy that is KCE. After calling and returning them for several years the previous owners of ten years ago are still listed.
Posted by: yaddacubed on August 18, 2009 04:16 PMMy are some of my humble (and wishful thinking) projections:
Mallahan/McGinn--Mayor
Hutchinson/Phillips--King County Exec
Bag tax--down in flames by at least 63% against
Doud/Yuen--Port Comm. Position 3
People I would like to see get past the primary:
Dorsal Plants--Seattle Council Position 4
Robert Rosencrantz--Seattle Council Position 8
Tom Albro--Port of Seattle Positon 4
The Seattle mayor race is interesting. I think there is a chance Nickels won't survive the primary. Might well come down to Mallahan v. McGinn. I don't believe Nickel's poll numbers.
Here's hoping your prediction, Burdabee, of the bag tax doing a modern day imitation of the Hindenburg disaster comes true. How that could happen in this liberal bastion has me scratching my head.
And then there is Dorsal Plants. Could you invent a more politically correct name for a politician in liberal Seattle? But I suppose that really is his name.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 18, 2009 05:18 PMFor KC Exec, of course Hutchinson will win big. The 2nd slot will probably be Constantine.
I think if either Constantine/Phillips get make it to #2 then Hutch. will have a real shot in the general as she'll be able to hang the probs of KC around their necks. If by some chance (unlikely) that either Jarrett/Hunter get through then they'll be much tougher for Hutch to beat in the general.
Looking forward to seeing the results -- too bad it'll take a week or two to get the totals.
How is Greg Nickels doing? Not so good. He trails both McGinn and Mallahan. It's a slim margin but it does not look good for Nickels.
Greg Nickels is a world class jerk. He must be at least 40 pounds overweight and he tells us we need to walk and take public transit. He doesn't do either.
Nickels, at a Christmas tree lighting ceremony at Westlake Square took the opportunity to tell little kids that Santa soon might not have a house at the North Pole if we don't do something about global warming. He had little children crying.
Nothing would make me happier that seeing this horrible man defeated.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 18, 2009 09:13 PMHow is it possible that liberal Seattle rejected the bag tax by an overwhelming margin?
I've followed politics a long time and I can usually understand trends and why people vote a certain way. This one I cannot understand at all. I'm happy about it,certainly.
I know tomorrow the local press will blame the "big plastic bag industry" for financing a successful campaign.
I don't think that has anything to do with how the vote went. Good Seattle liberals are not going to be swayed by corporate advertising...are they?
There is something else going on here that this vote reflects. I can't put my finger on it.
I don't show up (though I got a ballot.)
My wifes name doesn't show up (though she got a ballot.)
The person who hasn't lived her in 11 years shows up as a registered voter - as does her husband who also hasn't lived here in close to a dozen years.
I'm 100% serious folks. This stinks and I need answers. Where do I go from here?
Posted by: johnny on August 18, 2009 10:02 PMWhere do I go from here?
Posted by: johnny on August 18, 2009 10:05 PMAlso, there are many people for whom their King County address is their correct voting address, but not where they prefer to receive their mail. this is often true of students and members of the military.
Finally, if all it required to change someone's voter registration was changing their address at the post office, can you imagine the sheer number of pranksters that would cheerfully run around changing their ex-spouses' / teachers' / enemies' / rivals' / bad neighbors' voter registration addresses and cause chaos?
So, the first thing to do is contact the correct agency: let the election office know, in writing, that there are two people who have received ballots at your home who do not live there. Provide names and addresses. It is reasonable to expect that once you have actually contacted the election office directly, that they will correct it for the next election.
However, keep in mind, that if the people registered at your home are active military, state department, or national health service, and their home state is Washington, but they have no other address in Washington and have not established residency elsewhere, their voting address remains the last address at which they lived in their state of residence, even if they no longer have any connection with the property.
It is possible that your mystery voters are a military or diplomatic couple serving overseas.
Posted by: The Advocate on August 18, 2009 10:43 PMI'm no lawyer, but if someone still maintains some sort of residence in Washington I expect their vote is legal.
First thing though is to determine if they have actually been voting, and that database will tell you.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 18, 2009 10:46 PMIn the last odd year Primary involving a County Executive and Mayor of Seattle (2005), total turnout was 30.09%.
Posted by: The Advocate on August 18, 2009 10:55 PMFor those suggesting this could all be legit because the person might be in military, etc. I again point out that this person is registered at my home of over a decade.
Posted by: johnny on August 19, 2009 07:02 AMIncompetent boobs overseeing incompetent rubes = Government bureaucracy, increasing with each successive level.
Posted by: Rick D. on August 19, 2009 07:43 AM
As for KC Exec, I guess I'll be voting for Hutchinson by default even though she doesn't do much for me as a candidate. Better than Dow! though.
Posted by: Palouse on August 19, 2009 12:23 PMI knew they would do that. One of the interesting things about liberals is their predictability. But "special interests" does not explain this amazing lopsided vote against the bag tax. You know the liberals and greenies that dominate Seattle politics would support the bag tax. They aren't going to be swayed by any amount of "special interest" advertising. So who are the people in Seattle that voted against it?
I don't want to go overboard here but I believe we are seeing a large political shift. There is a big middle that traditionally votes Democrat. The do so more out of habit than reason. I know, I used to do the same thing.
Obama with his radical agenda, his daily lecturing, his attempts to push legislation without public scrutiny has gotten the attention of the traditional Democrat voters. They are basically conservatives. That are realizing just how far left Obama and the Democrats have moved. I think that's what is happening.
I think those are the people that defeated the bag tax. They are also the people that are throwing Nickels out of office.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 19, 2009 01:56 PMPeople all over the political spectrum are swayed by advertising. Why would you think otherwise?
"There is something else going on here that this vote reflects. I can't put my finger on it."
Well, aside from the 15x spending difference.... maybe voters just didn't want to pay the bag tax? It's hard enough to get people to support taxes for tangible benefits like transit; taxes for intangibles like the environment are even less popular. This has always been true, everywhere.
I think Burdabee made a good point earlier saying that people will vote for big all encompassing measures such as mass transit or the endless school funding levies. They do Bruce, in spite of what you say in your post. People here pass funding for mass transit, parks, schools, and the environment all the time. Show us evidence to the contrary. When it is a single clearly discernable tax such as the bag tax down it goes.
While I agree to an extent, I think we are perhaps witnessing a major political shift.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 19, 2009 06:09 PMThey'd have to buy plastic bags. Duh!
Or maybe they would have to get rid of their dogs and get cats. Oh but then you have to use plastic bags to clean out the cat's litter box. My head hurts.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 19, 2009 07:30 PMThese people are insane.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 19, 2009 08:09 PMConversely, when the initiative to allow gaming machines outside of tribal reservations was defeated, there was nary a whisper about how much the tribes spent on fighting that. Double standards, that's all.
Posted by: Palouse on August 20, 2009 07:09 AMAnd as I've said, Seattle liberals aren't going to be swayed by "big plastic".
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 20, 2009 07:25 AMJust remember, in the media's mindset there are special (codeword for "Republican/Conservative) interests and the people's (liberal) interest.
Posted by: Shanghai Dan on August 20, 2009 08:00 AM
