September 30, 2009
Washington's Governor Gets Ready To Break Her No Tax Increase Promise — Again

In 2004, Christine Gregoire ran for office promising not to increase taxes.  Her official margin, just a little over one hundred votes, was so small that it is almost certain that she would have lost without that pledge.

When she took office, she immediately called for tax increases.  (Some will be reminded of Bill Clinton's similar behavior in 1992-1993.)

In the 2008 campaign, she again promised not to increase taxes.

That promise lasted longer than I expected, but it has almost reached its expiration date.

Gov. Chris Gregoire seems to be softening her opposition to raising taxes as way to help deal with another looming budget shortfall.

Her budget writers are projecting a shortfall next year of around $1 billion and the governor says there's no fat left to cut.
. . .
The governor said she's told legislative leaders to make their case for taxes, including the possibility of sending voters a proposal.

"I didn't want revenue last year because I couldn't figure out how you could do a revenue package that wouldn't hurt the economy.  I'm still stuck in that rut but I've told leadership to come make your case," Gregoire said.

Her 2005 tax increases were mostly regressive, hitting poor people harder than the well off.   Because Washington state does not have an income tax, any future tax increases are likely to be regressive, too.

Much of the additional money from Gregoire's tax increases went to public employees, especially members of public employee unions.  Their total compensation is probably above average, and, as everyone should know, they have much greater job security than workers in the private sector.

So, the net result of Gregoire's tax increases has been to transfer money from the poor to a better off group, a politically powerful better off group.  And we are likely to see the same result this time if the legislature passes the tax increases she has said she would accept.

Have the taxpayers, other than members of these powerful unions, benefitted from Gregoire's additional spending?  I don't doubt that, if you were to go over her budgets with a fine-toothed comb, you would find some spending increases that benefit the rest of us.  But it would be hard to find evidence that we have gotten our money's worth.

Cross posted at Jim Miller on Politics.

Posted by Jim Miller at September 30, 2009 07:34 AM | Email This
Comments
1. NO FAT LEFT TO CUT -- HA!

Anybody who spends time in state and local offices knows we could thrive under 1/3 of the government we have now.

If Seattle's DPD (planning department) can find room on the payroll for a "Race and Social Justice Change Team..."

If Seattle can find room to purchase 330+ Toyota Priuses -- which will NEVER break-even on gas compared to comparable buys (e.g., Corolla) -- and spend yet more money converting 13 of them to electric at a total cost of $156,000...

If ST & the PSRC can spend $2.4 billion + ruinous annual O&M costs to carry less than 1% of transit share on light-rail...

...then the state can DEFINITELY find some fat to cut. What a racket they have going; no fat to cut -- pssh!

Posted by: gulliver on September 30, 2009 07:56 AM
2. I'm still wonder where the $160 million for replacing the older Diesel Electric ferries ended up? The 64 car ferries they are now building were approriated out of some other funding source.

Posted by: cougarpete on September 30, 2009 08:16 AM
3. I'm still wonder where the $160 million for replacing the older Diesel Electric ferries ended up? The 64 car ferries they are now building were appropriated out of some other funding source.

Posted by: cougarpete on September 30, 2009 08:16 AM
4. Has anybody else noticed that Chris seems to be less and less on the tube in the past few weeks? I think it's because Obama's popularity numbers are plummeting and she coattails with that. In the past Ithink there was some film of her on nearly every 5pm Channel 5 news...Now when I hear her wonderful voice and even better rhetoric, I'm almost surprised.

Posted by: Rae on September 30, 2009 08:17 AM
5. I think it went into Husky Stadium renovation cougarpete. :)

Posted by: Duffman on September 30, 2009 08:32 AM
6. Government in noway, will want to make any sacrifices on its end. No, it is always the Tax Payer that must make the sacrifices. When, Government does reduces expenditures, it will target services that effect directly, the Tax Payers as a form of punishment so, the Tax Payer will be more apt to allow the Government to dig deeper in his pockets.

The average Government employee is compensated in wages and benefits a good 50 percent more than, that of the average Private Sector employee. This should never be. Government jobs should never compete with Private Sector jobs, let alone, offer vastly superior pay and benefits. You want to cut cost and save Billions? Bring the Government employee pay, benefits and personal numbers down to equal the Private Sector level to perform similar tasks.

Posted by: Daniel on September 30, 2009 08:59 AM
7. Mistake: It should read benefits and personnel numbers

Posted by: Daniel on September 30, 2009 09:09 AM
8. I have a question. Has anyone considered the possibility of pushing through something like the FairTax plan on an individual state basis? What if we eliminated Washington State's sales tax, property tax, B&O tax, and all other state taxes, and replaced it with a single consumption tax with a universal "pre-bate." I assume that it would require a state constitutional amendment, and would not be the kind of thing we could do with an initiative?

Posted by: The Tim on September 30, 2009 09:13 AM
9. (Some will be reminded of Bill Clinton's similar behavior in 1992-1993.)

And we all remember how badly that turned out. The economy tanked so badly that after eight years in office the S&P500 was down 40% from the day he took office and overall job growth of 2% for the entire eight years was the lowest in seven decades.

Just kidding, of course. That dismal perfomance was the result of G.W. Bush's tax-cutting stewardship. During the Clinton admin the S&P500 gained over 200% despite tax increases which left the federal budget in surplus at the end of his administration.

Posted by: scottd on September 30, 2009 09:20 AM
10. scottd, how much do you want to raise taxes?

Posted by: Gary on September 30, 2009 09:38 AM
11. I see this as a way to campaign against I-1033, while NOT campaigning against I-1033. Very clever, and many will buy into this scheme.

Posted by: ROCKETMAN on September 30, 2009 09:38 AM
12. Gary, how much do you want to cut taxes? Please name specific programs and specific dollar amounts you'd cut and point to their financing in last year's budget. Thanks.

Posted by: John Jensen on September 30, 2009 09:45 AM
13. gary: I don't want to raise taxes at all -- in fact, I'd prefer to pay zero if we could figure out how to make that work!

Why do you ask?

Posted by: scottd on September 30, 2009 09:45 AM
14. scottd, good. I thought you were advocating for tax increases.

Thanks.

John, I think no citizen should be compelled to pay more than 25% of their income in total taxes. If the government cannot get by with 1/4th of every person's labor, then they are doing too much.

I'll be nice and not even ask you a question. I know how much that upsets you.


Posted by: Gary on September 30, 2009 09:52 AM
15. gary: I wasn't advocating anything -- just pointing out some inconvenient facts.

Posted by: scottd on September 30, 2009 09:56 AM
16. Gary, again, please name specific programs and specific dollar amounts you'd cut and point to their financing in last year's budget. Thanks.

Posted by: John Jensen on September 30, 2009 10:03 AM
17. #16 No.

Posted by: Gary on September 30, 2009 10:08 AM
18. But I'm sure something can still be cut, right? After-all, those are the talking points.

Posted by: John Jensen on September 30, 2009 10:42 AM
19. Of course, John.

People cut things. Business' cut things. When you don't have as much money coming in as you used to have, you cut things.

I am assuming you don't want to. I am assuming your solution is to increase taxes on those people and business' which are already cutting things... so that they can have the privilege of cutting more things?

Is that correct?

Posted by: Gary on September 30, 2009 10:50 AM
20. Why not just take the state budget back to some historical point like 2000 or some other date?
That way, all the different segments of government are equally cut.

Another area might be to privatize several of the current functions of state government such as liquor sales, licensing, fish & game, highways, and public universities.

Or, how about taxing the profits of Indian casinos and other gambling operations in the state?

Why not tighten up retirement programs and benefits provided for state employees? No retirement before 65; stricter disability retirements; no taxpayer provided pensions or health care? They should be on the same footing as other private workers, since the state jobs are more secure, particularly in recessions like is happening now.

Posted by: Clean House on September 30, 2009 11:40 AM
21. You want cuts? Cut in-state tuition to non-citizens. Cut ALL government benefits to non-citizens. Cut ALL funding of foot ferries. Cut ALL funding for phony global warming and "green job" initiatives, including wind and solar energy. Cut EVERY government department's management by 10%. Cut every unnecessary social program. Tax tribal gaming, cigarettes, etc.

Posted by: Palouse on September 30, 2009 01:14 PM
22. Alright, John. You've heard my take. You've heard others tell you what to cut. Does that help know what to cut now? Can we proceed with that?

Posted by: Gary on September 30, 2009 01:43 PM
23. @8 The Tim...The Government is never going to allow any Tax to replace another Tax without the guarantee that revenue would be Increased and not Decreased. The so-called Fair Tax is calculated to bring in more revenue than, the current taxing method. However, that can be illusionary. You throw a horrifying .23 cent Tax in the face of the consumer for every dollar he spends...Guess What? Like the Luxury Tax, the Consumer is going to cut back on his consumption. The Luxury Tax was proved such a, Failure in the lost of jobs and the negative downward effect on the Economy that it was soon Rescinded. Well, when consumers cut back on buying, the Government will soon realize that their revenue projections were off and the need to raise the .23 per dollar to .30 or .50 etc. will further impact the economy to the point that there would not only be a lost of jobs but, there would be a tremendous rise in Black Market and Smuggling activities. You'll have an uncontrolled Crime Wave. The Economy would collapse and Society would be ransacked. Such a, Deal! No, the best way to reduce Taxes is to reduce Government waste and corruption and most important of All...Reduce the size of Government...PERIOD!

Posted by: Daniel on September 30, 2009 03:43 PM
24. We the taxpayers are in NO MOOD for another tax increase. These are the absolute worse kind of times for that. And hey--we've learned from the Obama administration that democrats don't pay them anyway, so it'd just be the rest of us who would be paying them. So NO to tax increases.

Posted by: Michele on September 30, 2009 06:27 PM
25. Specific budget cuts:

Reduce all state employee's pay until the shortfall is completely covered.

End step increases.

Require state employees to pay 50% of their health care insurance.

Nothing to it, really.

Posted by: hinton on September 30, 2009 09:59 PM
26. We can't cut the budget. Michelle Obama said that there aren't enough funds anymore for kids to be able to learn how to ride a bike.

Posted by: Gary on October 1, 2009 09:27 AM
27. Gary@14
I don't know, 25% seems high to me. Is this all taxes combined (e.g., income, sales, real estate, gas, cell phone, ...)?

Jim,
You state that CG is about to break her pledge again, could you refresh me as to her actual pledge this last go round. Her being a lawyer, I sure there is some Clintonian parsing involved there, given that she won't be recommending any increases, but won't veto any either. This is where politicians always weasel-word their way around these items, especially when it comes to taxes.

My personal recommendation to the state is to look at program cuts and/or buying policies. Does the state really need to support Microsoft so much that it is on its never-ending Software Assurance upgrade program and its high cost? Do the state's developers really need to use Visual Studio Team System and its $5K-10K per developer cost, when open-source and J2EE based solutions like Subversion and JIRA, or Collabnet's TeamForge solution work just as well? TeamForge was good enough for the US Military, which is using it as its standard (not Microsoft).

Posted by: tc on October 1, 2009 10:33 AM
28. #27 You're right. 25% is too high. What do you think it should be?

And yes, tc. What I said was clear, "John, I think no citizen should be compelled to pay more than 25% of their income in total taxes. "

Posted by: Gary on October 1, 2009 12:20 PM
29. I'm not surprized this coming from someone who rumor has it recently bought another small dog. It makes me wonder if she intends to have dog babysat again at our expense courtesy of WA. State Patrol again?

Posted by: Laurie on October 1, 2009 05:45 PM
30. As far as taxes go if God only requires 10%, that should be good enough for government. Cut every government agency that doesn't provide for our safety by enough to make up for the short fall. Fire half the staff in the Govenors office. If you can prove your a citizen, no benefits.

Posted by: smeethow on October 3, 2009 02:08 PM
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