Almost three decades ago, when Washington State was Red, Republicans held both Senate seats with Slade Gorton who upset Warren Magnuson in 1980 and Dan Evans who was appointed in 1983 due to the death of Henry Jackson. Gorton lost reelection to Congressman Brock Adams in 1986 but made a come back in 1988 when Evans declined to seek reelection and Gorton won the Jackson/Evans seat. Since Gorton's narrow loss to former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell in 2000, the GOP has been shut out despite running well qualified candidates - Congressman George Nethercutt against Murray in 2004 and Safeco CEO Mike McGavick against Cantwell in 2006.
Seattle Times columnist Joni Balter recites the recent history of Republican efforts to regain at least one of the State's U.S. Senate seats. She rightly notes that Republicans have been crushed in the last two Senate elections and don't appear to be developing a viable 2010 challenger to three term Democrat Senator Patty Murray. She dismisses three well known names: Susan Hutchison (just lost the race for King County Executive), Congressman Dave Reichert (why risk losing his Congressional seat to a Democrat) and Attorney General Rob McKenna (wants to run for Governor). In all, Balter paints a gloomy picture of Republican prospects against Murray.
So far, five candidates that seem to be Republican have web sites indicating interest in running for Murray's seat: a chiropractor, a former pro football player, a long haul truck driver, a motivational speaker and an energy trader. None would appear to have the political base or fund raising capability to become viable candidates. One source said Cantwell spent $14 million to beat McGavick (at $10.8 million) in the 2006 race. Through the first three months of 2009, Senator Murray reportedly had over $3.2 million cash in the bank for 2010. To mount a credible challenge, it would cost what, ten, fifteen million dollars or more?
Still, Murray could be beaten. How? First, nationalize the campaign. Focus on the Democrat's profligate spending, opposition to Obamacare, Democrat proposed tax increases, failure of the administration policies on employment, the economy, the climate and international relations. Tie Murray to all these issues. Make bringing home the pork, at which she excels, a negative because it is bankrupting the country. As a sycophant of Obama/Reid/Pelosi, point out that she shares the blame for the unsettled and fearful state of the nation. Appeal to those who support term limits; eighteen years as a senator is enough. Put her on the defensive.
Second, find a candidate with proven electability, a political base, ability to raise money and willing to go for the jugular. Three come to mind, at least for the first three requirements - County Council members Kathy Lambert and Reagan Dunn and Sheriff Sue Rahr. All of them were reelected last November. Even if they lost, a run for the Senate would give them statewide exposure for the 2012 elections.
An extremely steep uphill battle, no question, but politics is a fickle business, just ask Hillary Clinton. Voter disillusionment with the "change" they got in 2008 may offer the GOP an opportunity in 2010.
Posted by warrenpeterson at December 05, 2009 11:08 AM | Email Thisdunn would be smart to wait until 2012 to run statewide. AG's race will be open when McKenna runs for Gov. A partisan -and futile- senate race could damage Dunn's electability for far less partisan AG position.
2010 fianances and volunteer effort would be best spent on good electable candidates that can win WA-03 and WA-02 as well as holding current seats.
when GOP holds more congressional seats there will be more of an organizational framework to win statewide races
Posted by: win congressional seats first on December 5, 2009 11:59 AMI'm sorry, I despise Murray, and consider her to be the 3rd worst Senator in the Senate. But Washington loves her. She's crushed 3 good opponents, all of whom should have at least made the race competitive, none of which actually have. Ghandi could run, and if he were running against Murray in Washington, he'd lose by 15pts minimum.
Nobody would like Murray to lose more then me. But she won't.
Frankly, we're better off leaving her unchallenged so she won't spend lots of money on turnout, helping down-ballot races.
Posted by: Cliff on December 5, 2009 12:51 PMSo, it appears Murray will likely be reelected, unless a scandal of monster proportions engulfs her - but the odds of that aren't very good.
Posted by: KDS on December 5, 2009 06:25 PMJoni's main point is that the GOP has no bench other than McKenna -- he sits there all alone. And with right-wing radio talkers, and their subscribers in the party, continuing to chase away moderates with their purity demands, prospects of success are dim. Remember John Carlson and Ellen Craswell and Linda Smith.
The Dan Evanses and Slade Gortons and Joel Pritchards that attracted moderate and even Democratic voters in the 70's and 80's, they are no longer welcome.
Posted by: Roger P. on December 5, 2009 06:45 PMCliff's idea @2 of pursuing a low turnout strategy sure says a lot about the state of the WA GOP.
Posted by: MikeBoyScout on December 5, 2009 07:21 PMMurry is a party hack. As such she will be rewarded with as much cash as she needs to run slick ads against any opponent. Anyone running against her needs to use that to show how well sticking it to the public pays off.
Posted by: Vince on December 5, 2009 08:15 PMThe state GOP has a lot of ground to make up in recruiting viable candidates who are really small government with integrity and name recognition.
Posted by: KDS on December 5, 2009 08:35 PMIt seems like the only difference between the WA GOP and the WA liberals is which ideology they would force all of us to live within. The GOP needs to go back to it's roots and be anti-collectivist. Liberty is the ultimate expression of tolerance and political correctness. It takes courage to fight for loosening the grip of power and to tolerate the violent rantings of those on the left who are seeking to end individual liberty.
The GOP in WA could lead the nation by becoming more libertarian while at the same time stealing core issues away from the Democrats:
1. Deregulate marriage and replace it with a civil contract for forming a legal union regarding the issues the state has an actual interest in: tax liability, legal liability, child custody, shared assets, power of attorney, etc. This protects traditional marriage by putting it back into the church. This also let's anybody form legal union who wants too. This is how conservatives can be champions of same-sex couples without becoming leftists. The individual liberty argument is a traditional GOP argument.
2. Ending the drug war should be a GOP issue simply because it is a matter of individual liberty. At the very least, federal prohibitions are unconstitutional and the regulation of illegal drugs should be left to the states. This is one of the few "issues of compassion" that the GOP can get behind while still being tough on crime. Should we be incarcerating people who had a pound of marijuana in their trunk longer than we incarcerate rapists?
3. I don't know why building prosperity from the bottom up isn't an issue owned by the GOP. I'm not talking about abusing government power to confiscate wealth from rich people to redistributed it to poor people. I'm talking about dramatically lowering the bar for people to start new businesses and own property. Fighting for the sanctity of contracts also helps. All of the liberal government regulations and government programs to control socio-economic outcomes are actually creating the increasing disparity between rich and poor by locking the little guy out of the broader economy.
4. The federal tax code and income tax system is a tool of oppression and political largess. The GOP should be pushing hard for a drastically simplified income tax, either a flat tax or a limited tiered tax with no loopholes. The complicated tax system is just another hurdle that keeps the little guy from participating in the broader economy and building wealth for themselves.
5. Immigration and guest worker programs combined with a completely locked down boarder should be a GOP issue. So far, the left is pushing for a completely open boarder and no legal path to citizenship because they want to have millions of potential voters as ace's up their sleeve. When the shit hits the fan, the Democrats will just grant amnesty to gain the millions of votes needed to stay in office. (As a side note, I'm predicting this will happen next summer to prevent the impending '94 repeat due to disastrous healthcare reform and a continued jobless economy.) The GOP needs to champion the American tradition of welcoming immigrants through the legal process of gaining citizenship that encourages them to be productive members of our society by limiting the benefits they receive. I think a 1 strike your out policy for immigrants is appropriate. If they get convicted of any crime while on the process to citizenship, they earn themselves deportation. We want immigrants who really want to be here and are willing to work hard and walk a straight path. We should also be giving green cards to any foreign student who earns a masters/PhD from an American University so they'll stay here and keep us competitive.
All of these issues can be made to appeal to moderates and even some on the left, simply by focusing on individual liberty. Most Americans don't like the government regulating the intimate details of their lives. We need to remind them that the collectivist nature of the Democrat party means that a vote for Democrats is a vote for a loss of liberty. That should be the message that gets repeated over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over...well, you get the idea. I should never again see a GOP candidate/politician on TV without them mentioning that the Democrats are again trying to limit individual liberty and reducing freedom.
The GOP could become the big tent party again without becoming leftists themselves. Scozzafav was just one example of the GOP trying to become leftists. We're not collectivists, we're libertarians at heart!!! The trick is to not think in collectivist/totalitarian terms. Anytime you think that we, the GOP, could regulate something some way, you are wrong. You are wrong because now you hold the exact same position more or less as a Democrat, you just disagree about the details.
Of course, very few of you will agree with me on this. I've said this many, many times before on this site and have received nothing but derision. Obviously, my ideas aren't the ones that made the WA GOP party nearly bankrupt. The GOP will be completely feckless in this state until it can make the tent big enough to include many people in the middle who knee-jerk with the Democrats. That won't happen as long as we're arguing to force people to live the way we want them to live. When we argue that they can be who they want to be and can work the way they want to work and can get their kids an education that they agree with...then and only then will the GOP matter again.
Posted by: blindman on December 5, 2009 09:00 PMRossi's campaign for independent voters from 2008 is perhaps most relevant. Personally, I didn't find it sincere and it did not resonate like it surprisingly did in 2004.
The Republican Party will likely make some gains in 2010, not so likely in Washington State.
McKenna is the State's best shot, but the National party's positioning makes that problematic for me - and personally I'd rather see him keep his AG seat in 2012 then give it up for the chance to beat Gregoire.
The Washington State party needs to develop more depth in the McKenna types, and challenging Murray would be a way to build name recognition with little downside risk for the right candidate.
BTW - we need to get Sonntag his own legal counsel in the next legislative session.
Posted by: Douglas Tooley on December 6, 2009 04:37 AMDr. Sean Salazar (Chiropractor & military vet) sean4senate.com
Craig L. Williams (nuclear engineer and energy expert) votewilliams2010.com
Wayne Glover (truck driver) realchange2010.org
Rod Rieger (electrician) rodrieger.com
Exploratory Committee
Clint Didier (former NFL player, small business owner) clintdidier.org
Chris Widener (Professional speaker) chriswidener.org
Each of these candidates is a fiscal conservative who is interrupting their careers (note each has more business experience than Murray) to help reign in out of control spending, stop abusive regulations, and return Constitutional limitations to government. Patty Murray is ranked the #1 most liberal in Congress. She’s even worse than Senator Boxer. That’s hard to beat. And to illustrate just how fiscally irresponsible Murray is, she supported the Bridge to Nowhere so as to protect her own pork projects, and told her cohorts to do the same.
Dr. Sean Salazar (Chiropractor & military vet) sean4senate.com
Craig L. Williams (nuclear engineer and energy expert) votewilliams2010.com
Wayne Glover (truck driver) realchange2010.org
Rod Rieger (electrician) rodrieger.com
Exploratory Committee
Clint Didier (former NFL player, small business owner) clintdidier.org
Chris Widener (Professional speaker) chriswidener.org
Each of these candidates is a fiscal conservative who is interrupting their careers (note each has more business experience than Murray) to help reign in out of control spending, stop abusive regulations, and return Constitutional limitations to government. Patty Murray is ranked the #1 most liberal in Congress. She�s even worse than Senator Boxer. That�s hard to beat. And to illustrate just how fiscally irresponsible Murray is, she supported the Bridge to Nowhere so as to protect her own pork projects, and told her cohorts to do the same.
I'd like to argue that point...but I can't.
None-the-less, I do think it's the best strategy for us in Washington in '06.
Murray is damaged goods. She represents the bailouts, the lack of transparency, the out-of-control spending, special interests, trial lawyers (her #1 supporter group), open border pro-illegal alien supporters, the ecopoliticians who want to force our energy use back to 1875 on a percapita basis.
If you want to save America's fiscal foundation, you MUST help get rid of Murray.
Posted by: Randy Dutton on December 6, 2009 03:21 PM#20 - You are passionate, but in order to mount an effective campaign, you will have to dismantle the WSRP - do you have enough $ ? If you plug into the Tea Party movement, you may have a chance, but there needs to be a focused organized effort, like one that has not been seen. The Tea Party movement (Tea Baggers) may be able to help out - seriously.
Posted by: KDS on December 6, 2009 06:56 PMDraft Medved 2010
Posted by: Mathew "RennDawg" Renner on December 6, 2009 09:40 PMPrevious elections have seen not only Murray's campaign spend $$$, but other national interests pour millions into "non-endorsement" attack ads that didn't mention anyone by name but certainly were obvious in their attacks. So she has it set up well. She paints her opponents as being attackers, while organizations that she is not formally tied to can attack her opponents at will.
And honestly, I think Pierce/King/Snohomish County are bursting with both entitled liberals and elites who will always support the farthest left candidate that runs.
So why bother spending the dough? We are not a battleground state and without a major shift in power are unlikely to become one.
Posted by: erich on December 7, 2009 08:36 AMI love Michael Medved and consider him to be one of the only talk show hosts worth listening to, but he's got about as much chance of beating Patty Murray as I do marrying Ms. Universe (read: none). He's too socially conservative, not good looking enough, and too smart for most Washington voters.
Oh, that and the Ron Paul crowd hates his guts. And as much as I despise the Ron Paul crowd, they are large, proportionally, in Washington and no Republican can win who's openly antagonistic to them.
Posted by: Cliff on December 7, 2009 02:01 PMNo one should underestimate the power of the voter to send an aloof politician a strong message. She is stuck with super glue to the fate of the Democrats in 2010. Believe me, she is vulnerable. For example, Obama's approval rating in Pennsylvania, a blue state, is now at 40%. LOOK OUT, DONKEYS!
Independents will wield tremendous weight in this decision, and far more independents consider themselves to be conservative than liberal. I suspect that conservative voices will over-achieve in 2010, and I predict that the results will be a HUGE surprise all over the country – perhaps even in Washington state. Government has been incrementally growing to uncomfortable proportions for quite some time, but the putrid pie of unconstitutional fiscal nonsense that Obama and the Congressional Democrats have exploded in our faces this year is beyond anything previously imaginable.
Patty Murray was right there in the partisan kitchen – helping to bake the pie – and now she should be held accountable for her reckless contributions. Those of us with common sense need to spread the word and do the hard work to make her regret it. It can be done.
Patty Murray was right there in the partisan kitchen – helping to bake the pie – and now she should be held accountable for her reckless contributions. It is now up to us. Those of us with common sense need to spread the word and do the hard work necessary to make all of our non-representatives regret their actions. Patty Murray is beatable – let's get to it.
Posted by: Freedom Fighter on December 9, 2009 01:36 PMNo one should underestimate the power of the voter to send an aloof politician a strong message. She is stuck with super glue to the fate of the Democrats in 2010. Believe me, she is vulnerable. For example, Obama's approval rating in Pennsylvania, a blue state, is now at 40%. LOOK OUT, DONKEYS!
Independents will wield tremendous weight in this decision, and far more independents consider themselves to be conservative than liberal. I suspect that conservative voices will over-achieve in 2010, and I predict that the results will be a HUGE surprise all over the country � perhaps even in Washington state. Government has been incrementally growing to uncomfortable proportions for quite some time, but the putrid pie of unconstitutional fiscal nonsense that Obama and the Congressional Democrats have exploded in our faces this year is beyond anything previously imaginable.
Patty Murray was right there in the partisan kitchen � helping to bake the pie � and now she should be held accountable for her reckless contributions. It is now up to us. Those of us with common sense need to spread the word and do the hard work necessary to make all of our non-representatives regret their actions. Patty Murray is beatable � let's get to it.
Posted by: Freedom Fighter on December 9, 2009 01:38 PMMy take: Let's de-emphasize abortion and win the women's vote; let's de-emphasize marriage and win the votes of those who see nothing wrong with responsible adults being fully qualified couples; and let's emphasize individual responsibility, fiscal responsibility, and the abilities of individuals to rise above the limitations of race, religion and background.
Let's leave the moral questions to the churches and deal with the daily challenges of freedom and progress. Then we'll have not only the religious right wing Republicans (they'll vote for Pelosi?), but a big share of the clear-thinking independents.
This deep in the comments section my comments probably will be lost. At least I made the them. With luck, I'll feel like making them again. I'd feel better winning half a loaf than losing a full loaf. Get what we can and go from there.
I don't know who you are, Blindman, but I'm with you.
Posted by: bobinbellevue on December 9, 2009 08:01 PM