January 23, 2010
Rethinking Senator Murray's Shoe-in Status

I wrote a post recently essentially agreeing with the conventional wisdom that Senator Patty Murray is unbeatable given the Republicans who have announced or are considering running for her Senate seat. While I thought with a well known, well funded, experienced candidate there was a possible path to defeating her next November, it still would be an uphill battle. Then came a new cry from the cradle of the American Revolution, little known Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown crashed his pickup through the gates of the Kennedy compound, ran over the shoe-in Democrat candidate and set in motion what may well be the greatest political reversal in American history.

Senate seats across country, once considered safe, became the "people's seats" and vulnerable. New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Illinois, Arkansas, Colorado, North Dakota, Nevada, California and now Washington are in play, perhaps others too. The unimaginable just a few days ago, Republican takeover of the Senate, has moved into the realm of possibility. Of course, Republicans would have to hold all their seats and run the table to add ten more for the magic 51 total. Karl Rove thinks Republicans have a shot at a five to eight seat gain. To reach ten, Washington would have to turn Red.

A well known talk show host speculated that if Susan Hutchison ran and was able to hold the same King County vote she got in her losing race for King County Executive, her support in the rest of the state would carry her to victory over Murray. I'm not sure she'd be interested in another down and dirty campaign so soon after the Executive race.

Among the six or so lesser known to unknown candidates, Chris Widener, has professional speaking ability and a very large potential contributor list from which he hopes to raise a significant war chest. If he catches a new wave of change rolling across the nation, he may be the Scott Brown of the West come November 2, 2010.

Posted by warrenpeterson at January 23, 2010 09:45 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Warren,

Good story, However I hope that Susan decides not to run. she doesn't need this she's been through enough. The State GOP leadership need to leave her alone. They don't seem to realize or don't care that this last election did a lot of damage to Susan's reputation.


As much as it pains me to say this I honestly don't think she will be able to get the percentage of votes in King County that she did previously. Those miserable excuses for human beings that ran her campaign, burned far to many bridges for her to be able overcome at this point.


If the base of the party sees her as another candidate being forced down there throats. Make no mistake about it that's what the State GOP is trying to do. This will end up being a disaster.

Guys this was not easy for me too say. Believe me know one wanted her to win this last election more than I, But it didn't happen because the people that ran her campaign repeatedly thumbed there nose at the base and a lot them know longer trust her.

For what its worth I believe in Susan and that will never change, but she doesn't need anymore of this.

Posted by: Phil Spackman on January 23, 2010 10:42 PM
2.
Yeah, but not so fast.

Scott Brown was not the typical 'Republican' and he certainly wasn't the Bellevue 'Insider' Republican types that the Party has been putting out the last few years.

Brown was like Kevin Costner in "Swing Vote". He didn't spend his time smoozing with symphony trust funds or making real estate deals.

I could see a guy who is a 'real Washingtonian' sweeping the state, but not the usual types that the party regulars keep putting out there.

Posted by: Blue Swan on January 23, 2010 10:46 PM
3. Warren,

In August of 2009 my campaign began traveling to Republican and conservative groups throughout the state making a Powerpoint presentation that showed the winning strategy was to focus on independent voters with a message of fiscal conservatism and limited government.

Scott Brown's election in MA validates our election strategy and the possibility of defeating Sen. Murray is indeed very real. However, I think it will be our campaign, with the cooperation of patriotic groups from across the state, that will do it!

Thank you for all you do for freedom.

Respectfully,

- Craig Williams
U.S. Senate Candidate 2010
www.VoteWilliams2010.com

Posted by: Craig Williams on January 23, 2010 11:29 PM
4. I went to Chris Widener's Senate Kickoff party tonight in the U District, and I must say that he is quite possibly the best bet to overthrow Sen. Murray. His ability to coherently relay a platform that also creates enthusiasm within the voter reminds me of Obama's in 2008.

Also, he understands the means of reaching a voter through 21st Century technology will end up being an amazing asset to his campaign. He is exactly what can ignite excitement in all voters; young, old, rich and poor.

Posted by: Keith Schipper on January 24, 2010 01:26 AM
5. I don't know enough about Craig Williams or Susan Hutchison to form an opinion about them.

What I want is a candidate that holds similar views as mine. That is that the Federal Government need to return to role it was intended. Not the cradle to grave micro managing of peoples lives that it has become.

I want a candidate that is an independent thinking. Not a party puppet.

I'm more interested in reducing initial tax burden than a pittance as a tax rebate.

I want a candidate the believes Al Gore spews more hot air than my car.

Give me all that and I will be glad to send money to that candidate.

Posted by: Vince on January 24, 2010 05:46 AM
6. No, Susan shouldn't look to the Senate right now.
Perhaps she should look to the County Executive position she lost and make sure that Dow and the Council have their feet held to the fire on accountability.

Not many folks realize they have already raised their first non-voted tax on vehicles for all of unincorporated King County, $20.00 a year on registrations. They are seriously thinking of trying to get it up to $100.00 with a vote.

The Dow Foot Ferry Fiasco continues to run with a 21 million dollar a year budget and collecting 1.065 million in fares. Does this mean as Team Dow dismantles 40-40-20 they will remove redundant bus services to West Seattle? I doubt it.

The county is also looking to create a 100% cost recovery model for animal control services, which means cities could see per animal fees increase to the $200-$300 range. The new pricing level from the private providers like humane society (depending on volume) are getting to the $400 + range per animal.

Posted by: Smokie on January 24, 2010 09:30 AM
7. No, Susan shouldn't look to the Senate right now.
Perhaps she should look to the County Executive position she lost and make sure that Dow and the Council have their feet held to the fire on accountability.

Not many folks realize they have already raised their first non-voted tax on vehicles for all of unincorporated King County, $20.00 a year on registrations. They are seriously thinking of trying to get it up to $100.00 with a vote.

The Dow Foot Ferry Fiasco continues to run with a 21 million dollar a year budget and collecting 1.065 million in fares. Does this mean as Team Dow dismantles 40-40-20 they will remove redundant bus services to West Seattle? I doubt it.

The county is also looking to create a 100% cost recovery model for animal control services, which means cities could see per animal fees increase to the $200-$300 range. The new pricing level from the private providers like humane society (depending on volume) are getting to the $400 + range per animal.

She needs to show she was serious about KC, before moving on to U.S. Senate.

Posted by: Smokie on January 24, 2010 09:32 AM
8. "her support in the rest of the state would carry her to victory over Murray."

Trick is, we have no way of knowing exactly what that level of support around the state would be.

Posted by: Ryan on January 24, 2010 11:06 AM
9. Her totals in KC COULD carry her to statewide victory. I think she could have statewide appeal.

Posted by: Michele on January 24, 2010 12:33 PM
10. KC skulls are as thick as Massachusetts skulls.

The difference is that in Mass- the mainstream got to see what a failed government health care program does to the middle class, in KC, they are still under the delusion that government is the solution and not the problem.

The patient needs to hit rock bottom before they can commit to a recovery.

Posted by: Andy on January 24, 2010 12:55 PM
11. To say the Democrat Party higher ups were angry about the MA election result is and understatement.

Take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aQCiRjvZY

Posted by: Patriot on January 24, 2010 01:20 PM
12. I think Susan should run. Her problem was not her positions or her staff or her "inexperience." The problem was the forum and the zeitgeist.

Statewide is a much better forum for her and the mood is much better now.

Posted by: AD on January 24, 2010 01:53 PM
13. #11: Patriot, when I typed in the web address you wrote, it said the video is not available. What's the title of it? Sometimes it comes up better when searching by title on the youtube site.

Posted by: Michele on January 24, 2010 05:04 PM
14. @#13,

I thik it's the Hitler one... search for Hitler Scott Brown

Posted by: Mike H on January 24, 2010 05:43 PM
15. It seems as though the possibility of Sneakers loosing her "people's seat" are remote. Since the best candidates are getting long in years.

Posted by: Glenn Mark Cassel AMH1(AW) USN Ret. on January 24, 2010 05:43 PM
16. Williams' experience seems much more substantive than Widener's.

Posted by: Bob F on January 24, 2010 06:13 PM
17. Williams' experience seems much more substantive than Widener's.

Posted by: Bob F on January 24, 2010 06:13 PM
18. @13 Here is the link:

Hitler Finds Out Scott Brown Won Massachusetts Senate Seat

Posted by: Patriot on January 24, 2010 06:23 PM
19. Oh, I did already post a link to that a few days ago in the public blog. It makes me laugh every time I watch!

Posted by: Michele on January 24, 2010 06:28 PM
20. I agree with you Bob F. Williams is more qualified than Widener. More important...Williams is the real deal when it comes to conservatism. Widener is a motivational speaker by trade and darn good at it. Problem is, you never know when a motivational speaker is being genuine and when they're "selling ice cubes to Eskimos." I'm supporting Williams. I hope everyone will give him a good look-see and support him too.

Posted by: Jean on January 24, 2010 07:42 PM
21. I agree with you Bob F. Williams is more qualified than Widener. More important...Williams is the real deal when it comes to conservatism. Widener is a motivational speaker by trade and darn good at it. Problem is, you never know when a motivational speaker is being genuine and when they're "selling ice cubes to Eskimos." I'm supporting Williams. I hope everyone will give him a good look-see and support him too.

Posted by: Jean on January 24, 2010 07:43 PM
22. I got to see craig Williams in person at the Puyallup Tea Party rally. He seems like a promising choice for the seat.And I think him responding on this blog should also say something!!Also candidates with the support of the Tea Party have a better chance of this kind of upset!!(Tea Party Express did an ad on Scott Brown shortly before Tues. election)

Posted by: Laurie on January 24, 2010 07:51 PM
23. The Tea Party Movement will decide who will run. Folks need to understand that most Tea Party members are "unaffiliated". Many hate the Republican Party as much as the Democrats.
Sen. Brown convinced them he is a Tea Party kind of guy.
IF the Republican Party arrogantly believes they can choose a wimpy candidate without Tea Party support in the selection process, Murray will win in a landslide.
The R's had their chance...and have done quite poorly. If they adopt the Tea Party platform and are mindful of the revolution in America...they can reform and win.
Make no mistake about it..Republicans must reform and get rid of the wimps.

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on January 24, 2010 10:13 PM
24. Dino

Posted by: Doug on January 24, 2010 10:23 PM
25. Doug @24: That says it all.

Posted by: Diogenes on January 25, 2010 05:39 AM
26. Listen to Cynical @ 23, guys. Do just what he says.

Posted by: ivan on January 25, 2010 07:42 AM
27. @23 - spot on !

Posted by: KDS on January 25, 2010 09:03 AM
28. I don't see anyone other than Susan Hutchison who has a chance to win this, unless someone like ex-MS CFO John Connors (who was talked about in the past as a potential gubernatorial candidate) decides to get into the game. I don't see him doing it.

We have to face the facts. There isn't any GOP (let alone conservative) "bench" in the "great" northwest. I think we're stuck being represented by the dumbest member of the Senate for another six years.

Posted by: jwpegler on January 25, 2010 11:43 AM
29. I don't see anyone other than Susan Hutchison who has a chance to win this, unless someone like ex-MS CFO John Connors (who was talked about in the past as a potential gubernatorial candidate) decides to get into the game. I don't see him doing it.

We have to face the facts. There isn't any GOP (let alone conservative) "bench" in the "great" northwest. I think we're stuck being represented by the dumbest member of the Senate for another six years.

Posted by: jwpegler on January 25, 2010 11:45 AM
30. Shoo-in, please, like shoo-fly.

Hard to believe someone like Murray is safe when even Bayh trails. O Seattle, why you gotta be like that?

Posted by: T.J. on January 25, 2010 02:31 PM
31. Shoo-in, please, like shoo-fly.

Hard to believe someone like Murray is safe when even Bayh trails. O Seattle, why you gotta be like that?

Posted by: T.J. on January 25, 2010 02:32 PM
32. I would even be happy to see a more qualified democrat take on Murray and send her back to some obscure local school board. The woman is an embarrassment to this state.

Posted by: huey on January 25, 2010 04:09 PM
33. Looks like lock-step Patty is going to go along with trying to get the Senate "Health Care reform" signed off by the house before Brown is sworn in. That will go over well.

Posted by: Smokie on January 25, 2010 04:13 PM
34. Looks like Blanche Lincoln is retiring also. Biden's son has decided not to run in DE. That's two more GOP pickups in the Senate. Some other Dem House member, Barry (Arkansas) is also retiring.

Gonna be a bloodbath.

Posted by: Gary on January 25, 2010 05:47 PM
35. Sean Salazar is a constitutional-based candidate. Sean is reaching out to all groups, the inner cities, and rural populations in WA State. He believes that by building strong lasting relationships in King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties, and reaching out to conservative Democrats, Independents, and those who are culturally conservative i.e. Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, and other minorities we can win our cities back so the rest of the state's conservative votes can count. Salazar's three key issues are (1) we need jobs now; (2) protect and uphold our U.S. Constitution, and (3) abolish current tax-and-spend and big government agenda.

Sean Salazar registered on October of 2008 for he knew it would take time to build relationships in the inner city. He has been all over the state at over 330 events and has give nearly 200 speeches. He has over 200 lead volunteer placed throughout the state. His team is organized, social media savy and represents the diversity of our inner cities.

Salazar is the candidate who can win back the conservative votes that were lost years ago and needed to WIN!

Posted by: Debra pelletier on January 25, 2010 09:40 PM
36. Sean Salazar is a constitutional-based candidate. Sean is reaching out to all groups, the inner cities, and rural populations in WA State. He believes that by building strong lasting relationships in King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties, and reaching out to conservative Democrats, Independents, and those who are culturally conservative i.e. Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, and other minorities we can win our cities back so the rest of the state's conservative votes can count. Salazar's three key issues are (1) we need jobs now; (2) protect and uphold our U.S. Constitution, and (3) abolish current tax-and-spend and big government agenda.

Sean Salazar registered on October of 2008 for he knew it would take time to build relationships in the inner city. He has been all over the state at over 330 events and has give nearly 200 speeches. He has over 200 lead volunteer placed throughout the state. His team is organized, social media savy and represents the diversity of our inner cities.

Salazar is the candidate who can win back the conservative votes that were lost years ago and needed to WIN!

Posted by: roma on January 25, 2010 09:47 PM
37. Obama actually said this:

"I think that this gets into a big mush. So, let's just clarify: I didn't make a bunch of deals. There is a legislative process that is taking place in Congress and I am happy to own up to the fact that I have not changed Congress and how it operates the way I would have liked. So, that's point number one. Number two is that, I think, it is important to know that the promises we made about increased transparency we've executed here in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

HAHAHA! Yeah, he didn't make any deals, it was all Congress' fault!

Posted by: Gary on January 26, 2010 09:34 AM
38. My cocker spaniel has a better chance of winning than a RINO like Williams. I'm sure he'll equal the 4% vote he got in the primary for Clark County commissioner in August 08, right before he told us in the local rag that the guy who came in 2nd in the primary (first of the GOP'ers)"couldn't win."

The guy who "couldn't win?"

They call him "commissioner" now.

Williams knows as much about politics as he does brain surgery.

Posted by: Hinton on January 26, 2010 09:23 PM
39. Hey. All we need to beat Patty Murray is a conservative who is willing to speak loudly and clearly their principles. As Rush says," Conservatism wins every time its on the ballot!"

Posted by: Dana on January 26, 2010 10:29 PM
40. If you think that Scott Brown defeated a "shoe-in Democrat candidate" in Mass. then have I got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you...

Patty Murray is well-liked and well-respected by members of the Democratic Party here in Washington state, polls well with independents, and works hard on behalf of and in cooperation with folks from both sides of the aisle and both sides of our state.

The only chance for a Republican is someone who is well-respected and well-qualified, and you don't have many of them around who are known and liked statewide.

Maybe Reichert, who doesn't seem to want to risk losing his seat just yet, or McKenna, who has his sights set on the Governor's Mansion, could pull it off.

Who else is there? Hutchison damaged herself pretty bad with that well-publicized mess of a campaign here in King County... but maybe she has a shot if she can solidly pull together support from around the state outside of mostly left of center Puget Sound counties.

Posted by: Mickymse on January 28, 2010 03:03 PM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?