January 07, 2008
New Hampshire Primary Predictions

Because I didn't do too terribly awful predicting the Iowa caucuses, I thought I'd try my hand at predicting the New Hampshire primaries for tomorrow.

These were predictions I made a couple days ago on Kingmaker.Politico.Com:


New Hampshire Primary (R)
McCain 33.0 - 35.0%
Romney 24.7 - 26.8%
Huckabee 15.1 - 17.0%
Paul 11.1 - 13.0%
Giuliani 5.1 - 7.4%
Thompson 3.5 - 5.0%

New Hampshire Primary (D)
Obama 40.7 - 42.3%
Clinton 25.4 - 27.2%
Edwards 23.9 - 26.1%
Richardson 1.6 - 2.9%
Kucinich 1.6 - 2.9%
Gravel 0.4 - 1.6%

Let's see how my predictions hold up tomorrow... Romney might do slightly better than I predicted a couple days ago partly because of his better than usual performance on the Fox Forum, and partly because of Fox's love-fest with him after that forum (i.e., Luntz's "focus group", a.k.a. professional undecideds). There's a chance that Huckabee won't show nearly as well as I predicted, and I'm ready for that; all I'm praying is that he ends up in third. Ron Paul may pull a surprise in New Hampshire--apparently his supporters are everywhere. I think McCain will do pretty well in New Hampshire with his recent "surge" and cross-over appeal with the independents who are so prevalent in the Granite State.

As for the democrats, I think we're going to see another Obama sweep. Hillary lost it today with her watery eyes, looking weak (albeit, she is exhausted). I think I may be heavily overestimating Edwards. In fact, I'm very sure I'm overestimating him for New Hampshire; so, athough I can't change it on Politico.com right now (it's past midnight, EST), I will change my prediction here:

Edwards: 17 - 19%

Ah, and let's give Richardson: 4 - 6%

Ok, I'm done.

-Cydney

Cross-posted on The Celebrity.

Posted by Cydney at January 07, 2008 11:56 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Cydney, I think the real test will be the margins of victory. Obama was expected to win Iowa but the margin of victory was staggering, for example.

Posted by: swatter on January 8, 2008 07:09 AM
2. The best prediction is that most predictions are wrong. Well, with the exception of mine that is.

Posted by: Don Ward on January 8, 2008 11:34 PM
3. Turn in your prediction license. And Paul's support IS a mile wide... but only a 16th of an inch deep.

Posted by: Hinton on January 9, 2008 10:07 AM
4. Um yeah...If I had a prediction license, it would have been handed in last night. I was totally surprised about Hillary's win, even though it was close. At least I got the placements for all the GOP candidates....

Posted by: Cydney on January 9, 2008 12:31 PM
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